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Technology Foresight for Competitive Dairy Industry: A Case of India

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Largest milk producer in the world- 104 MT 2008 ... Vegetarian culture. Milk sweets as a common gift. Convenience and Health Consciousness ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Technology Foresight for Competitive Dairy Industry: A Case of India


1
Technology Foresight for Competitive Dairy
Industry A Case of India
  • Rajbeer Singh
  • rajbasera_at_gmail.com
  • Center for Studies in Science Policy
  • JNU, New Delhi

6th PhD and Early Career Researcher Conference
Challenges in Research and Innovation Policy
Studies
29 June-02 July 2009
2
Presentation Plan
  • Some facts about India
  • Technology Foresight overview methodological
    case studies
  • SWOT analysis
  • Drivers Indian Dairy Industry
  • Future Growth Drivers Delphi Survey
  • National Foresight Program An agenda for India
  • Conclusion

29 June-02 July 2009
3
Some facts about India
  • Worlds largest milk producers white revolution
  • Produces 15 of total world milk production
  • Economy growing at more than 6 percent
  • 65 population dependent on Agriculture and
    allied sectors
  • Worlds largest numbers of milk and milk products
    consumers
  • Dairy market size US 50 billions
  • Dairy sector growing at 7.5 annually
  • Livestock sector Share in Indias GDP about 6
  • New Food Standard and Safety Authority of India
    (FSSAI)

29 June-02 July 2009
4
What is Technology foresight ?
  • Foresight is.. a process involved systematically
    attempting to look into the longer-term future of
    science, technology, economy and society with the
    aim of identifying the areas of strategic
    research and the emerging generic technologies
    likely to yield the greatest economic and social
    benefits (Martin, 1995)
  • Foresight is not the same as forecasting a
    process not a technique
  • Not predicting, but shaping or constructing the
    future by integrating ST push with demand pull
  • Different approaches/methods (Cuhls)

29 June-02 July 2009
5
What is Technology foresight ?
  • Fuller understanding of the forces shaping the
    long-term future which should be taken into
    account in policy formulation, planning and
    decision-making (Coates )

29 June-02 July 2009
6
Technology Foresight overview case studies
  • US and Japan applied in 1960s and 1970s
  • European Countries- UK, Germany, France,
    Netherlands followed in 1980s and 1990s
  • Approach adopted by Ireland, Hungary, South
    Africa, India, China, Australia, Brazil, Canada

29 June-02 July 2009
7
Different Foresight Methods used worldwide
Source EFMN
29 June-02 July 2009
8
Foresight Methods used by EU Countries
Source EFMN
29 June-02 July 2009
9
Foresight Methods Asian Countries
Source EFMN
29 June-02 July 2009
10
Foresight Methods US and Canada
Source EFMN
29 June-02 July 2009
11
Technology foresight Criteria of Methodologies
  • All the countries have applied technology
    foresight methodologies according to
  • Needs of the countries
  • Objectives of the exercise
  • Available resources
  • Convenience
  • Available expertise
  • Earlier experience with methods
  • Sector and area of exercise
  • Time horizon

29 June-02 July 2009
12
SWOT Analysis
  • Strengths
  • Largest milk producer in the world- 104 MT 2008
  • Highest milk production growth rate 4 (Global G
    R 1)
  • New Food Safety and Standard law and authority,
    2006
  • Strong Successful cooperative movement

29 June-02 July 2009
13
SWOT Analysis
  • Weaknesses
  • Highest numbers of livestock with low milk
    productivity

29 June-02 July 2009
14
SWOT Analysis
  • Weaknesses
  • Poor veterinary and animal health services
  • Small Dairy herd size with lack of efficient
    dairying practices
  • Lack of efficient cold chain
  • Quality raw milk collection
  • Lack of data and information availability on
    dairy sector
  • Weak organised retailing

29 June-02 July 2009
15
SWOT Analysis
  • Opportunities
  • India has large market and investment opportunity
  • Increasing quantity of available milk for
    processing
  • Increasing income level of consumers
  • Changing life style and preference for milk and
    milk products
  • Increasing number of adult consumers
  • Untapped indigenous milk products market

29 June-02 July 2009
16
SWOT Analysis
  • Threats
  • Food safety potential points of microbial and
    chemical contamination
  • Use of Drugs and pharmaceutical for animals
  • Famine and Flood

29 June-02 July 2009
17
Drivers
  • Sociological
  • Favorable demographical change
  • Dairy products as a culture
  • Vegetarian culture
  • Milk sweets as a common gift
  • Convenience and Health Consciousness

29 June-02 July 2009
18
Drivers
  • Technology
  • Indian dairy products technology
  • Packaging technologies
  • Transportation
  • Cold chain and low temperature technologies
  • Probiotic and nutraceutical product technology
  • Information communication technologies

29 June-02 July 2009
19
Future Growth Drivers Delphi results Five most
important growth drivers for Dairy Industry by
2015
29 June-02 July 2009
20
Five Most Important growth Drivers for Dairy
Industry by 2020
29 June-02 July 2009
21
National Foresight Program An agenda for India
  • To systematically set up priorities through
    involvement of stakeholders
  • Five year planning for setting priorities is not
    competent because for the 5 Cs
  • Communication
  • Concentration on the longer term
  • Co-ordination
  • Consensus
  • Commitment

29 June-02 July 2009
22
National Foresight Program An agenda for India
  • To come at a fuller understanding of the forces
    shaping the long-term future which should be
    taken into account in policy formulation,
    planning and decision-making (Coates )
  • For Identifying those sector specific
    technologies and technology trends that will best
    improve the quality of life
  • Need for wiring up innovation
  • Competitive dairy industry

29 June-02 July 2009
23
Conclusion
  • Indian dairy industry has grown at 4 per annum
    during last three decades which has brought a
    white revolution
  • Driven by Government and Cooperative investment
    through different dairy development programs and
    plans, most prominent was operation flood
  • Convert weaknesses in strengths through capturing
    opportunities available in the sector and
    minimizing and controlling threats
  • Providing right direction to technological and
    economical drivers
  • This needs a strategic thinking and futuristic
    decision making
  • India needs to set a National Foresight Program

29 June-02 July 2009
24
  • Thank you
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