QUEST Deglaciation: Climate and Biogeochemical Cycles during the last deglaciation.

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QUEST DeglaciationClimate and Biogeochemical
Cycles during the last deglaciation.

• Paul Valdes (Bristol)
• Mary Edwards (Soton), Harry Elderfield
  (Cambridge),
• Sandy Harrison (Bristol), Mike Jenkin (Imperial
  College),
• Tim Lenton (UEA), Robert Marsh (NOC),
• Mark Maslin (UCL), Francis Mayle (Edinburgh),
• Eolco Rohling (NOC), Dudley Shallcross
  (Bristol),
• Alayne Street-Perrott (Swansea), Kathy Willis
  (Oxford),
• Eric Wolff (BAS)

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The Scientific Challenges Climate Change through
the Deglaciation
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The Scientific Challenges Methane, CO2 and Dust
Records through the deglaciation
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Overall Goal of Project

• To develop a fuller understanding of what has
  driven changes in climate, atmospheric
  composition and biogeochemical cycles during the
  last deglaciation
• And to rigorously evaluate process-based Earth
  system model simulations for this period
• This is a broad goal so we focus on known key and
  important processes for which
• we have a relatively good basic understanding
  and modelling capability
• And for which we can develop datasets to
  thoroughly evaluate the modelling

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Work Packages

• WP0 Project Management
• WP1 Palaeodata synthesis
• WP2 Model Development
• WP3 Baseline LGM and transient simulations
• WP4 Modelling Biogeochemical Cycles
• WP5 Climate-Biogeochemical Feedbacks
• WP6 Model and Data Management
• Total resource 23.5 person years
• Approximately equally divided between data and
  modelling.

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Modelling tools
Orographic height
Model simulated Mean Annual Precipitation
(pre-industrial)
FAMOUS
HadCM3

• Principal modelling tool will be FAMOUS
• Low resolution version of HadCM3
• Atmosphere is 7.5 x 5 x 11 levels
• Ocean is 3.75 x 2.5 x 20 levels (same as
  HadCM3L)
• GENIE used for sensitivity analysis, particularly
  for fresh water inputs from melting ice sheets.

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Storm Tracks are effected by FAMOUS resolution

• HadCM3 FAMOUS

Storm Tracks in normal and low resolution model
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Work Package 2 Model Development

• Dust cycle modelling
• Builds upon existing model (potential strong link
  to QUACC)
• Sea salt parameterisation
• Important aerosol and potential proxy for sea ice
• Extension of dust modelling (potential strong
  link to QUACC)
• Oxygen Isotopes modelling
• Develop sub-component model to represent isotopic
  fractionation during carbonate shell formation
  (maybe a link to MARQUEST)
• Completes development of oxygen isotope enabled
  Hadley model (within HadCM3 family of models)
• Terrestrial carbon isotopes (possible link to
  QUERCC)
• Important for evaluating terrestrial vegetation,
  methane etc.
• Atmospheric Chemistry (potential strong link to
  QUACC)
• Develop fast chemistry scheme, compatible with
  UKCA
• Traceability and tuning
• FAMOUS GENIE-IGCM hierarchy

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Remaining Work Packages

• WP3 Baseline LGM and transient simulations
• WP4 Modelling Biogeochemical Cycles
• WP5 Climate-Biogeochemical Feedbacks
• WP6 Model and Data Management

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Stages in Modelling the Deglaciation
Phase 1 simulation Orbital forcing only
Phase 2 simulation As phase 1 ice sheets CO2
etc.
Phase 3 simulation As phase 2 modelled
vegetation and fresh water input
Phase 4 simulation As phase 3
aerosol/chemistry feedbacks
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Summary

• Project is an ambitious but carefully constructed
  programme of research that will develop a fuller
  understanding of what has driven changes in
  climate, atmospheric composition and
  biogeochemical cycles during the period since the
  Last Glacial Maximum.
• First transient simulation of deglaciation using
  a full complexity Earth System model
• Development of new model components for
  dynamically representing key biogeochemical
  feedbacks
• Comprehensive evaluation of model against
  existing and newly developed datasets.
• Cost effective, building upon existing
  substantial investments by NERC, EU and others.
• The ultimate test of state-of-the-art Earth
  System Models.

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Relationship to Other Activities

• Very strong synergies to other theme 2 proposals
  and fully complementary to theme 1 projects.
• Consortium members have very strong links to
  Hadley Centre, GENIE, RAPID etc.
• Benefits from considerable leverage from ongoing
  activity including several existing Leverhulme,
  EU and even some industrial projects

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The Scientific ChallengesCharcoal and Fire
through the deglaciation
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Sensitivity of biogeochemistry to physical
climate Aerosols

• Dust

Pre- Indust. LGM
Lunt and Valdes (2002)
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Sensitivity of biogeochemistry to physical
climate Methane
From Valdes, Beerling, and Johnson. 2005
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Greenland Climate Change
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Project Management

• Project can only be achieved through a consortium
  approach. It is also a complex project which
  requires considerable coordination of tasks to
  ensure that schedules are maintained. This will
  be achieved by
• Paul Valdes will coordinate overall project and
  the modelling tasks
• Sandy Harrison will coordinate data synthesis
  work.
• Project coordinator (30) will manage day-to-day
  tasks
• Regular meetings (4 per year) plus numerous
  smaller meetings are required to ensure project
  is on track.

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Fit to QUEST

• QUEST aims to achieve improved qualitative and
  quantitative understanding of large-scale
  processes and interactions in the Earth System,
  especially the interactions among biological,
  physical and chemical processes.
• The proposal directly addresses the theme 2 call,
  namely
• The pattern and controls of variations in
  processes affecting atmospheric trace gas
  composition on glacial-interglacial time scales,
  such as wetland formation, fire frequencies, and
  changes in terrestrial ..biotic community
  composition
• The consequences of changes in the global dust
  cycle ..
• The role of biophysical feedbacks from
  terrestrial .. ecosystems in climate change.

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Workpackage 3 Baseline LGM and transient
simulation

• LGM simulation with FAMOUS and GENIE-IGCM
• Design Transient Simulation
• Transient simulation with FAMOUS
• Melt Water Scenarios using GENIE.
• Evaluation of FAMOUS and GENIE simulations

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Workpackage 4 Modelling Biogeochemical Cycles

• Modelling vegetation, fire, and weland sources of
  trace gases and aerosol.
• Modelling dust emissions
• Modelling sea salt emissions

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Workpackage 5 Evaluation of climate-biogeochemis
try feedbacks

• Transient biogeochemical-feedback simulation
  using FAMOUS
• Evaluation of FAMOUS simulation
• Sensitivity analyses using GENIE.

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Workpackage 6 Model and Data Management

• Modelling resources
• Community access to online web-based database of
  simulations
• Data Synthesis Activity
• All databases will be made available to
  international community and integrated with
  modelling resources
• Long term stewardship in accord with NERC policy.

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Modelling ToolsProject will use and enhance

• FAMOUS (and other HadCM3 variants)
• A Low resolution version of HadCM3
• Advantages Traceability
• Disadvantages Computational cost (12 months and
  150,000 to complete 21,000 years)
• GENIE-IGCM (and other GENIE flavours)
• A Fully dynamic fast model
• Advantages Better resolution than FAMOUS and
  more comprehensive biogeochemistry.
  Computationally relatively fast (3 months and
  cost free to do 21,000 years ensemble on GRID)
• Disadvantages Less traceable. Control climate
  currently poorer than HadCM3 (not sure how it
  compares to FAMOUS). Modules developed for GENIE
  are not currently simple to then add to HadCM3
  suite

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Component Models

• Oxygen/hydrogen isotopes including forward
  modelling of forams. Other proxies also to be
  considered.
• Emission modelling of trace gases and aerosols
• We will further develop prognostic models of
  wetlands and fire, and associated emissions
  schemes.
• Develop existing prognostic models for aerosol
  (dust, sulphate, sea salt) emissions.
• Improved modelling of chemistry-climate (within
  fast framework)
• Implementation of the Common Representative
  Intermediates (CRI) scheme into GENIE, and
  supplement it with a simple description of
  secondary organic aerosol scheme.
• Closely linked to UKCA and theme 1 activities

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Specific Tasks Datasets

• Development of new data synthesis of
• Carbon isotopes from terrestrial sources and
• Marine oxygen-isotope data.
• Compile new global datasets for
• vegetation changes,
• wetland extent (based on sedimentary evidence)
  and
• fire frequency (based on macroscopic charcoal
  records).
• Update existing datasets to improve their
  temporal coverage.

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Specific Tasks Transient Simulations

• Perform a series of continuous time integrations
  to examine the changes in climate and
  biogeochemical emissions to investigate the
  controls on the last deglaciation, using both
  FAMOUS and GENIE-IGCM
• These will initially be forced by reconstructions
  of ice sheets, GHGs, meltwater pulses, and
  orbital changes.
• These will be used as a starting point for the
  biogeochemical modelling
• Subsequent simulations will examine the feedbacks
  from vegetation, aerosols and atmospheric
  composition.
• ALL model simulations will be rigorously
  evaluated against the extensive new and existing
  datasets.

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Model and Data Management

• Model synthesis activities.
• All FAMOUS model results will be archived using
  Bristol model database system (see
  www.paleo.bris.ac.uk)
• Currently holds results from more than 400 model
  simulations, totalling more than 6 Tb of data
  (covering all climates from 300 million years ago
  to future climates)
• Allows users to produce plots and animations of
  more than 1000 different variables, including
  derived quantities such as biomes.
• Currently password protected, with about 100
  users. QUEST-Deglaciation will allow it to become
  fully open.
• Data synthesis activities.
• The compilation of the terrestrial and oceanic
  data sets will be coordinated through Bristol,
  who will provide database and mapping support.
• Liaison with the appropriate international data
  communities will be coordinated through the
  Data-Model Comparison Subcommittee of PMIP.
• The resulting data sets will be made available to
  the international science community, in
  conformity with NERC policy on public access to
  data.

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Project Management

• Lead PI will be helped by coordinator
• Regular (probably 4 monthly) project meetings
• Real and Virtual (access grid)
• Open to all theme 2 partners
• Time management
• GANTT diagram to be completed.

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Data ToolsProject will expand upon

• Extensive existing data syntheses for 6000 and
  21,000 yr B.P.
• BIOME 6000
• GLOBAL LAKE STATUS DATA BASE
• LGM TROPICS
• DIRTMAP
• TEMPUS SSTs
• LGM SNOWLINES

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Greenland Climate Change
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Specific Tasks Component Models

• Oxygen/hydrogen isotopes into Hadley suite of
  models, and develop proxy models of forams
• Changes in vegetation patterns, the extent and
  productivity of wetlands, and in fire frequency,
  are important determinants of trace gas emissions
  during the deglaciation. We will further develop
  prognostic models of wetlands and fire, and
  associated emissions schemes.
• To investigate the impact of simulated trace gas
  and aerosol emissions on climate, we will
  complete the implementation of the Common
  Representative Intermediates (CRI) scheme into
  GENIE, and supplement it with a simple
  description of secondary organic aerosol scheme.
• Development of prognostic models for aerosol
  (dust, sulphate, sea salt) emissions.
• Simulated changes in aerosol emissions will be
  evaluated against existing data sets (e.g.
  DIRTMAP) and the ice core record.
• The dust results will be used by the G-IG
  proposal to evaluate dust-Fe input into the ocean.

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Scientific MotivationAerosols and Isotopes
Dust and Nitrates
Sulphates
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Changes in fire regime based on charcoal records
from lake sediments
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Scientific MotivationBiogeochemical Cycles
Carbon Dioxide
Methane
Note Different direction of time axis
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Example of Palaeo-wetland map
Lakes Wetlands
From Hoelzmann et al., 1998
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Fresh water events and predictability

• Sensitivity to initial conditions.
• Same forcing but marginally different basic
  states.

From Renssen et al 2002
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Work Package 1 Palaeodata syntheses

• Continuous reconstructions of changing vegetation
  patterns
• Maps and time series documenting changing wetland
  extent
• Isotopic composition of terrestrial biomass
• Semi-quantitative estimates of changing fire
  regimes based on charcoal

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Current availability of pollen sites
RESULTS FROM PAIN Bigelow et al., 2003
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WETLAND RECONSTRUCTIONS
Mapped patterns e.g. Broström et al., 1998
Hoelzmann et al., 1999
Time series based on basal dates Canadian
Geological Survey database