The International H2O Project IHOP_2002 Two years Later Expected Outcomes, Pleasant Surprises and Fu

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The International H2O Project (IHOP_2002) -- Two
years LaterExpected Outcomes, Pleasant
Surprises and Future Challenges

• David Parsons and Tammy Weckwerth
• NCAR/ATD
• Boulder, CO
• USA

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Motivation

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Motivation

• Floods, especially flash floods, cause more
  deaths each year than tornadoes, hurricanes,
  lightning and wind storms
• Significant property losses due to flash floods
  and they are the highest percentage of federal
  aid events. (Recently gt8 billion per year and
  rising).
• Warnings are difficult often night time events,
  public perception of precipitation events,
  dependent on hydrology and meteorology, and
  increases in skill will help (current warnings
  often lt 1h).
• The problem of poor forecasts of flash floods and
  warm season convective is a problem that is
  international in scope.
• It has been argued that improvements in QPF for
  non-flood situations will have significant
  economic and social benefit.
• IHOP_2002 research will benefit other warm season
  warning and prediction problems

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Goals of IHOP_2002

• Improved understanding and prediction of warm
  season rainfall (0 12 h forecast)
• Improved characterization of the time varying 3-D
  distribution of water vapor
• Four overlapping research components
• Convective initiation
• Quantitative precipitation forecasting
• Atmospheric Boundary Layer
• Instrumentation (optimal mix)

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Isentropic Airflow and Sounding Domain

Isentropic streamlines (37 C) for 2330 UTC 4 May
1961. The dashed lines are isobars at 100 hPa
intervals (from Carlson and Ludlam 1968)
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IHOP Summary 13 May to 25 June

• gt200 Technical participants from France, the US,
  Germany and Canada
• 2500 additional soundings
• gt 50 instrument platforms, 6 aircraft, 45 IOPs
• 268 h of airborne water vapor lidar measurements
• 76 h of airborne satellite evaluation
  measurements (S-HIS and NAST)
• Dedicated GOES-11 data

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Convective Initiation Expected Outcomes
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Atmospheric Boundary Layer Studies Expected
Outcomes
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QPF Expected Outcomes
IHOP Research Forecast Models (courtesy of
Steve Koch, NOAA/FSL)
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Instrumentation (Optimal Mix)Expected Outcomes

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Instrumentation (Optimal Mix)Expected Outcomes
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Some Pleasant Surprises

• BORRREEEEESSSSS !!!!!!!!!!

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Some Pleasant Surprises

• BORRREEEEESSSSS !!!!!!!!!!

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One Example of Several Pleasant Instrumentation
Surprises --- Refractivity

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Some Pleasant SurprisesUse of Data Set for
Diverse and Unexpected Applications
U wind for LLJanomaly from the diurnal mean
Climate Model
Obs
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CAM3 Diurnal Composite (SGP, IHOP period)
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Some Successes Over the Past Year

• Rapid movement toward collaborative work,
  sometimes stretching well beyond the expected
  boundaries
• Rapid movement toward a mix of case studies and
  climatologies
• Healthy mix of observations and modeling work

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Will IHOP_2002 be considered a success?

• Publications are one measure of success
• Some refereed publications are starting to appear
• Strong showing in conference literature
• Special issue in Monthly Weather Review

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Will IHOP_2002 be considered a success?

• Impact on operational forecasting will be another
  measure utilized
• Prediction 1 Radar refractivity will become
  operational in large part due to IHOP_2002
• Operational interest and eventual operational
  impact of reference radiosonde results
• Prediction 2 Strong (possibly under
  appreciated) impact on operations through new
  conceptual model and increased knowledge of how
  to model convection

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Impact on operational forecasting will be another
measure utilized

• Potential to contribute to big picture questions
  facing NWP
• Increase and improve utilization of satellite
  data sets over land
• Improved treatment of land surface processes
• Improved assimilation of water (cloud, vapor and
  precipitation)
• Propose a meeting Thursday at lunch to discuss
  the long awaited assimilation workshop

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Impact on operational forecasting will be another
measure utilized

• Email Tammy Weckwerth if you have ideas on other
  contributions of IHOP_2002 to prediction of warm
  season convection
• Appreciate thoughts from PIs on how IHOP_2002
  will address the other two big picture issues and
  how transfers to operations will occur

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Prospective on Future Experiments

• IHOP_2002
• Regional-scale meridional gradient in mixing
  ratio, soil moisture and vegetation
• High CAPE but strong CIN (the original
  conditionally unstable environment)
• Relatively low impact of transient synoptic
  disturbances
• Strong terrain impact to the west of the
  experimental domain
• Large systems are nocturnal

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Prospective on Future Experiments

• CSIP
• Smaller impact of gradients in soil moisture and
  vegetation
• Lower CAPE but less CIN
• Stronger impact of transient synoptic
  disturbances
• Modest terrain impacts within the experimental
  domain
• Lack of continental propagation of large
  convective systems

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Prospective on Future Experiments

• German QPF experiment
• Smaller impact of gradients in soil moisture and
  vegetation
• Lower CAPE but less CIN
• Large terrain impacts within the experimental
  domain so that terrain may control convective
  systems
• Strong impact of transient synoptic disturbances

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THORPEX

• The THORPEX slides on the European flood are
  courtesy of Melvyn Shapiro, Co-chair, THORPEX
  International Science Steering Committee

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1st Example Central European Floods
Prague
August 2002
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The Storm
France
Italy
Dundee Satellite Station 1241 UTC 11 Aug. 2002
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Dresden Germany
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Central European Floods
Cyclogenesis off Japan
Courtesy of Shapiro and Thorpe
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Flood
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2nd Example Minnesota Flood 9-11 June 2002
Moderate drought on 1 June Widespread rainfall
in excess of 5 inches. Flood with gt340
million in federal disaster aid. 80 of homes
and businesses damaged in Roseau, MN Locally
most significant flood on record.
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Minnesota Flood 9-11 June 2002
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Wisc. flood, previous wave packet ?
Convection along Mei-Yu Front
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1st Downstream Cyclogenesis
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Mn flood from frontal overrunning
2nd Downstream cyclogenesis
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Thank for your attention and for your hard work
on IHOP_2002