Vladimir Putin

1
Vladimir Putin

• Inventing Russia

2
Politics in the 90s

• 1993 a new constitution approved
• New parliament (the Duma), half from party
  lists, half from single member constituencies
• Powers of President strengthened
• President appoints Prime Minister, cabinet
• Russia Votes analysis of Russian voting
  patterns
• 1996 Eltsin makes a comeback as President from
  certain defeat with the money of Boris Berezovsky
• Eltsin dances during campaign
• November 1996 bypass operation

3
Eltsins second term Politics

• 1996 reelected on second round against Gennady
  Ziuganov (Communist)
• 1996 Alexander Lebed signs peace deal with
  Chechen leaders
• Rotating prime ministers
• Communists control Duma block reforms
• Rich oligarchs control Kremlin (Berezovsky,
  Gusinsky, Khodorkovsky, Potanin, Smolensky)
• Eltsins image as a drunken buffoon

4
Political Parties The Communist Party (KPRF)

• Leader Gennady Ziuganov (b. 1944)
• Share of vote to Duma
• 1993 11.6
• 1995 22.3 (34 of seats in Duma)
• 1999 24.3

5
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

• Right-wing nationalist party
• Leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky (b. 1946)
• Popular intemperate buffoon.
• Took votes away from Communists
• Zhirinovsky in European Parliament

6
Democratic parties

• Yabloko Led by Grigory Yavlinsky (right)
• Democratic Party of Russia
• In 1993 get about 10 of the vote

7
Moscow the centre of it all

• Throughout the Eltsin era Moscow is the centre
  of Russia, sucking the resources out of the rest
  of the country.
• Moscow becomes symbol of Russian identity.
• Yury Luzhkov, Mayor of Moscow, masterminds
  Moscows evolution.
• 2010 Medvedev fires Luzhkov for corruption.

8
Eltsin Period Economics

• Late 1990s oil prices collapse
• 1998 the Default Russia defaults on GKOs
  (government bonds)
• Ruble goes from 6 to the to 18, then 30.
• Huge budget deficits
• Unpaid salaries and pensions
• Inflation and financial instability banks
  collapse
• Crippling taxes on small business
• Flight of capital offshore
• Vulnerability of economy to falling oil prices

9
Eltsin Period Government

• Television controlled by oligarchs Berezovsky,
  Gusinsky
• Russia is a chaos of competing chains of
  organized crime
• Federal government disorganized, unreformed
• Weak central power strong regions
• Compromise with Chechens leads to chaos in the
  Caucasus

10
Backgrounder Oil prices
11
Who is Putin?

• Law degree from Leningrad State University
• Recruited by KGB (1975-1991)
• Worked in GDR (East Germany) 1985-1990
• On return to Russia worked in administration of
  Anatoly Sobchak, liberal mayor of St Petersburg
• 1998 Becomes head of FSB, successor to KGB

12
Personal characteristics

• Paradoxical figure liberal and KGB backgrounds
• Stiff, awkward in formal situations
• Personable likeable one-to-one
• Perceived by ordinary Russians as their kind of
  guy
• Extremely intelligent and articulate
• Hardworking and well-briefed
• Can be ruthless when necessary

13
The new man...

• August 1999 Vladimir Putin appointed prime
  minister of Russia by Eltsin
• September 1999 Putin opens second Chechen war
• Organizes new party Unity with Boris
  Berezovskys money for December elections
• Putin named acting president by Eltsin on
  December 31, 1999

14
Getting through the Duma

• Putins objective to break the logjam in the
  Duma (parliament) that had blocked efforts at
  reform
• Gradually over three elections with changes in
  the electoral law (eliminating single-member
  districts), United Russia becomes the dominant
  party
• Russia Votes

15
Putins programme Russian conservatism

• Economic reform appoints first-class economists
  (Kudrin, Gref, Chubais) to important posts
• Balance budget, repay foreign debt, build up
  stabilization fund while oil and gas prices are
  high
• Tax reform flat income tax of 13
• Private ownership of land
• Increase wealth of Russia during his 8 years in
  office, average salaries increase 6 times
• Pensions, public sector salaries paid on time
• Current endebtedness of Russia

16
Disasters The Kursk

• 12 August 2000 Kursk submarine incident nuclear
  sub experiences explosion in torpedo, sinks to
  the bottom of the sea

17
Disasters Hostage-taking in Moscow

• 23 October 2002 Nordost hostage taking 850
  people at musical taken hostage by about 40
  Islamic terrorists
• After three days 39 terrorists and 129 hostages
  killed (mostly by gas pumped into the building by
  Special forces)

18
Russian identity a new nationalism

• Reverts to the anthem of the USSR with new
  patriotic words Russian national anthem
• Strengthens the role of the Russian Orthodox
  Church.
• Propaganda in favour of the achievements of
  Russia AND the USSR (victory in 1945, sputniks,
  sport)
• Begins to rebuild armed forces

19
Vertical of power

• Centralization of all power in the hands of the
  president in Moscow
• Unity Party (Edinstvo) develops into United
  Russia (Edinaia Rossia)
• organization of Russian political life around one
  party reaching down from the Kremlin to local
  levels
• Local governors job to turn out the vote and
  support Kremlins initiatives
• Other tame parties tolerated so long as they do
  not try to claim more than token power.

20
Khodorkovsky Co

• Takes on the oligarchs deeply unpopular with
  Russians
• Warns oligarchs not to meddle in politics
• Mikhail Khodorkovsky, head of oil company Yukos
  arrested in 2003, tried for tax fraud, sent to
  Siberia
• Seizes their assets Boris Berezovsky, Vladimir
  Gusinsky driven into exile

21
The media are the message

• Takes over the TV stations formerly owned by
  oligarchs Berezovsky, Gusinsky
• TV self-censorship no criticism or ridicule of
  president or policies
• Numerous investigative journalists murdered,
  including Anna Politkovskaia
• Recently introduced English-language world-wide
  service Russia Today to give Russian point of
  view

22
Rewriting the constitution I

• Rules for elections continually rewritten to
  favour United Russia
• minimum 7 vote to get into Duma,
• single-member districts eliminated only party
  lists allowed
• Result independents eliminated, only four
  parties currently represented in Duma UR, CPRF,
  LDPR, Fair Russia

23
Rewriting the Constitution II Governors

• Beginning 2004 (after Beslan) governors of
  regions now appointed by the President, not
  elected, only approved by regional assemblies
  (usually dominated by UR)
• Inefficient or corrupt governors can be removed
  by Presidential decree

24
The burgeoning bureaucracy

• Putins programme requires a hugely bureaucratic
  state
• Corruption blossoms at every level from police to
  ministries no free press to expose abuses,
  bureaucrats have unlimited power
• Transparency International puts Russia at 147 on
  world perception of corruption index
• Bureaucracy stifles free enterprise small and
  medium-sized businesses harrassed by local
  officials
• Bureaucracy often hand-in-glove with monopolies
  to suppress competition

25
International context responding to aggressive
US policy

• NATO/US Expansion into E. Europe
• 1999 Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary
• 2004 Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria,
  Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia
• Independence of Kosovo even though U.N. Security
  Council resolution 1244 guaranteed the
  territorial integrity of Serbia
• Huge US base in Kosovo (Camp Bonisteel)

26
The Coloured Revolutions

• September 2000 Otpor! Yugoslavia Miloševic
  ousted
• November 2003 Georgia Rose Revolution
  Saakashvili replaces Shevardnadze
• November 2004 Ukraine Orange Revolution
  Pora! Viktor Yanukovich defeated by Viktor
  Yushchenko
• March 2005 Kyrgyzstan Tulip Revolution
  President Akayev replaced by Bakiyev

27
Putin in Munich
28
The Rebirth of Peter Rebuilding Peters city

• When working in Sobchaks administration, Putin
  had a picture of Peter the Great over his desk
• St Petersburg tercentenary in 2003 Russia hosts
  the G8
• St Petersburg designated as cultural centre

29
St Petersburg and Russian Cultural HeritageThe
Hermitage Museum
30
The Mariinka

• Known in Soviet times as the Kirov after a
  murdered party boss
• Resumes its old name
• World-class centre of music, ballet and opera
• Director Valery Gergiev
• Revolutionary new styles and repertoire

31
Aleksandr SokurovThe Russian Ark (2002)

• Revolutionary film taken in one shot in the
  Hermitage on the shortest day of the year
• Steadycam glides through the halls of the Museum
• Panorama of Russian history

32
Questions

• Why is Putin so popular?
• Could anyone else have done a better job?
• Is the power vertical the natural form of
  government for Russia?
• Is the course plotted by Putin sustainable in the
  long term?