A Multi-Criteria Planning Decision Support Tool to Enhance Sustainable Development of the Aquaculture Sector

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A Multi-Criteria Planning Decision Support Tool
to Enhance Sustainable Development of the
Aquaculture Sector
Presented by Stig Møller Christensen SMConsulti
ng ApS Sustainable Management Solutions
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Agenda

• Introduction to sustainable aquaculture planning
• Pre-requisites for using the tool
• Introduction to the aquaculture planning
  simulation tool
• An example of using the tool for trade-off
  analysis
• The future application of the planning tool

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1. Introduction to Aquaculture Planning in Vietnam

• Aquaculture Fishery sector accounts for
  approximately 5 of the national labor force
• As the population grows there will be increased
  pressure on land and natural resources
• Nearly 80 of aquaculture households are
  small-scale producers with less than 0.1 ha

1. The sector has experience a rapid uncontrolled
   growth leading to a number of adverse impacts
2. Need for better planning!

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1. Aquaculture Planning Guidelines

• In 2003 the Ministry of Fisheries established a
  working group to develop
• Sustainable Coastal Aquaculture Planning
  Guidelines

GOV
MOFI
MONRE
MARD

Province 1-X PC
DOFI
DONRE
DARD

District 1-X PC
AAFF division
Land-use div.
Commune 1-X PC
AAFF Unit
Land-use unit
Farmer 1-X
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1. Aquaculture Planning Process
6. Performance appraisal of alternative
activities scenarios
5. Gaining agreement on objectives, targets,
indicators criteria
7. Agree on the final direction of the sector and
develop a road map to steer the process to
achieve objectives/targets
4. Prepare a review of the planning area
Phase 2
8. Writing the plan
3. Collection of further information required
Phase 1
9. Approval adoption of the plan
2. Synthesis of existing secondary data
information
Phase 3
10. Implementing key provisions/incentives/
constraints
1. Preliminary issue identification
11. Monitoring review
12. Adjustment adaptation
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1. Key planning principles

• Integrated approach to aquaculture planning
• Linked to integrated coastal area management
• Integration of environmental considerations
• Integration of poverty alleviation
• Enhancement of public participation
• Use of incentives rather than regulations
• Improve the basis for making decisions

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2. Pre-requisites for using the tool

• Promote the basis for rational decision-making
• Making the term sustainable operational

Sustainable Coastal Aquaculture Development
Development objective
Economic viability
Social acceptance
Non-degrading Environment
Dimensions of development objective
Technical appropriate
Operational objectives
Water quality must comply with TCVN standards
Sustainable use of ground water for aquaculture
Measurable targets/goals
BOD lt 10 mg BOD/L Biological Oxygen Demand
Total N lt 10 mg N/L Total Dissolved Nitrogen
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2. Pre-requisites for using the tool

• Defining the key issues for development
• Quantitative versus Qualitative information

System A
System B
System C
System D
How do we make the right decision concerning
development of the sector?
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2. Pre-requisites for using the tool

• Why use Multi-Criteria-Decision-Analysis?
• Aquaculture Planners are Always Faced with More
  Than One Objective!
• For example
• Increase Economic Growth of Planning Area
• Increase Potential for Export Earnings
• Ensure Poverty Alleviation
• Create More Jobs
• Ensure Environmental Sustainability
• Assess Trade-Offs Between Objectives!

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2. Pre-requisites for using the tool

• Performance assessment of alternatives

1. Farm level land-use
2. Production performance
3. Production input
4. Economic performance
5. Export import performance
6. Labor performance
7. Environmental performance
8. Tax contribution

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2. Pre-requisites for using the tool
Performance assessment of Aquaculture land-use
alternatives
Indicator Unit A B C
Tiger shrimp Kg/ha/yr 3,000 750 74
Wild shrimp Kg/ha/yr - 52 47
Wild fish Kg/ha/yr - 24 24
Mud crab Kg/ha/yr - 27 22
Value added Mill d/ha/yr 108 39 6
Net Export value USD/ha/yr 13,200 3,600 580
Jobs Job/ha/yr 1.2 0.5 0.5
Total nitrogen load Kg/ha/yr 321 -15 -1.4
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2. Pre-requisites for using the tool
Performance assessment of Non-aquaculture
land-use alternative
Indicator Unit
Yield fishery from forest
Wild shrimp Kg/ha/yr 135
Wild fish Kg/ha/yr 212
Trash fish Kg/ha/yr 103
Net Export value fishery USD/ha/yr 127
Jobs Job/ha/yr 0.05
Total Nitrogen Load Kg N/ha/yr -219
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2. Pre-requisites for using the tool
Understanding the indicators farmers base choice
of alternative on
Indicator Unit Intensive Tiger shrimp Mangrove-shrimp semi-intensive shrimp Mangrove-shrimp-crab
Benefit/cost ratio 0.7 1.2 0.3
Aquaculture value added Mill d/ha/yr 108 39 6
Start-up costs Mill d/ha 258 41 14
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2. Pre-requisites for using the tool
Estimating the environmental capacity for the
planning area
Indicator TCVN Max Baseline 2003 Environmental Capacity Environmental Capacity Load
Total Nitrogen 10.0 mg/L 0.5 mg/L 9.5 mg/L 492 tons/day
Total Phosphorous 0.2 mg/L 0.1 mg/L 0.1 mg/L 5 tons/day
BOD-5 10.0 mg/L 9.9 mg/L 0.1 mg/L 5 tons/day
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3. Introduction to the aquaculture planning
simulation tool
CAPSIM Coastal Aquaculture Planning SIMulation
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4. An example of using the tool for trade-off
analysis Nam Can District
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4. Assessing the Present Exploring the Future
Stakeholders
Facilitator
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4. Example of outcome of commune land-use exercise
System A
System B
System C
System D
Baseline 2003
System A Extensive shrimp/No forest 320 ha
System B Extensive shrimp/Forest 1.150 ha
System C Intensive shrimp 30 ha
System D Production Forest 119 ha
Urban area other land-use 650 ha
TOTAL planning area 2.269 ha
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4. District Level Aquaculture Planning Baseline
Performance
District production tiger shrimp Baseline
2,600 tons/yr
District Aquaculture Fisheries Value
Added Baseline 200,000 mill VND/yr
District Forestry Value Added Baseline 33,000
mill VND/yr
1. Intensive shrimp
2. Mangrove-shrimp semi-intensive shrimp
Baseline District land-use profile System 1
90 ha System 2 0 ha System 3
31,000ha System 4 1,700ha
District Export value Baseline 20 mill USD/yr
3. Mangrove-shrimp-crab
4. Conservation forest
District Investment Required Baseline
0 mill VND/yr
District total jobs Baseline 17,000 job/yr
District Nutrient Baseline -400 tons N/yr
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4. Assessing the performance of the sectors
Year 2003 Unit
Economic growth (calculated by value added)
Aquaculture 200.000 Mill vnd/yr
Forestry 33.000 Mill vnd/yr
Total value added aquaculture forestry 233.000 Mill vnd/yr
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4. District Level Aquaculture Planning Baseline
Future Performance
District production tiger shrimp Baseline
2,600 tons/yr Scenario 1 28,000 tons/yr
District Aquaculture Fisheries Value
Added Baseline 200,000 mill
VND/yr Scenario 1 1,100,000 mill VND/yr
District Forestry Value Added Baseline 33,000
mill VND/yr Scenario 1 26,000 mill VND/yr
1. Intensive shrimp
Baseline District land-use profile System 1
90 ha System 2 0 ha System 3
31,000ha System 4 1,700ha
2. Mangrove-shrimp semi-intensive shrimp
Scenario 1 District land-use profile System 1
1,000ha System 2 500ha System 3
30,000ha System 4 1,300ha
District Export value Baseline 20 mill
USD/yr Scenario 1 130 mill USD/yr
3. Mangrove-shrimp-crab
4. Conservation forest
District Investment Required Baseline
0 mill VND/yr Scenario 1 2,000,000 mill
VND/yr
District total jobs Baseline 17,000
job/yr Scenario 1 22,000 job/yr
District Nutrient Baseline -400 tons
N/yr Scenario 1 1,800 tons N/yr
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4. Assessing the development trade-offs
Year 2003 2010 Unit
LABOUR DEMAND
Aquaculture fishery total 16.000 21.200 Number of jobs
Forestry total 1.000 800 Number of jobs
Total jobs aquaculture forestry 17.000 22.000 Number of jobs
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4. Assessing the performance of the planning area
Sustainable Coastal Aquaculture Development
Development objective
Economic viability
Social acceptance
Non-degrading Environment
Dimensions of development objective
Technical appropriate
Increase of jobs in the aquaculture sector
Operational objectives
Expect 32 job increase in the aquaculture sector
Measurable targets/goals
10 increase of jobs in the planning area
Indicators
Jobs 2003 Baseline 16.000 Jobs
Expected Jobs 2010 21.200 Jobs
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5. Application of the tool in the future

• The tool is highly useful for planners to
  understand dynamics of the sector
• Create baseline performance analysis
• Use to explore futures by developing scenarios
• Use to evaluate monitoring data
• Facilitates discussion on sustainable
  development
• Aquaculture Planning Software linked to GIS
  database Decision Support for Aquaculture
  Planning (DeSAP)