Communicating Weather Information to Targeted Lay Publics

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Communicating Weather Information to Targeted Lay
Publics

• Forecast and Forecast Dissemination for the Mount
  Washington Observatory

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The Mount Washington Observatory

• The mount Washington observatory is a Private
  non-profit scientific and educational
  institution. Its mission is to advance
  understanding of the natural systems that create
  the Earth's weather and climate, by maintaining
  its mountaintop weather station, conducting
  research and educational programs and
  interpreting the heritage of the Mount Washington
  region

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Who is the Lay Public to whom we disseminate our
forecasts

• For the most part our lay public are recreational
  tourists drawn from a pool of about 70 million
  people that live within a days drive of the
  summit (both US and Canada).
• 7-8 Million annual visitors to The White Mountain
  national forest within which we are located
• 250 thousand annual visitors to the summit of
  Mount Washington
• 40-50 thousand hikers to the summit, mostly in
  the summer, but lots in the winter too.
• Primary activities include Hiking, Backpacking,
  Mountaineering, and Skiing.
• Question How many people actually use our
  forecast?

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Our Forecasts

• Our primary forecasting goal is to provide a 36
  hour high elevations (5000-6300 ft) outlook that
  can be used as a decision making tool to help
  users make informed decisions about their saftey.
  
• This outlook includes Sky condition (including
  obscurations), liklihood of precipitation (but
  not QPF and not probablisitic), temperature
  range, wind range
• It also includes a current conditions statement
  as a reference point for users

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Forecasting format

• Summits weather discussion Summary of synoptic,
  regional, and meso/micro scale weather features
  for the next 36 hours. Intended to be a plain
  language explanation of why and how the weather
  will change
• Traditional today, tonight, tomorrow forecast
  using our own wording conventions

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Example Forecast Discussion
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Sample 'Packaged' Forecast
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Dissemination

• Multiple daily radio shows (local and statewide)
• Live morning radio call to back-country huts that
  are base camps for most hikers and climbers.
  (AMC)
• Weekend morning TV show
• Our own website, from which many source pull our
  data. Local hotels, BBs, USFS, AMC, etc.
• Weather information kiosks distributed around the
  mountains at base locations.

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Key challenges

• Creating concise but meaningful forecasts that
  are easy to remember without being too
  simplistic.
• Qualifying(or quantifying) uncertainty and
  inherent variability within our forecasts. Ex
  Fog or no fog? 500Ft difference in the LCL could
  mean 100 miles of visibility versus 75ft.
• Wording. Do people understand our wording? They
  don't see it anywhere else...
• Communicating complex topics. Ex Wind force
  varies with the square of the velocity, how do we
  explain the difference between the 50 mph wind
  and the 80 mph wind? Also winchill.
• Weather as an attraction. This is good and bad.

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Key Challenges

• Choice. People choose to come here, the weather
  doesn't come to them.
• Borderline days. How to communicate the degree of
  danger that still exists even though it isn't as
  extreme as it can be.
• Trying to reduce weather related deaths and
  rescues.
• Of the 138 deaths on the mountain all but 30 are
  weather related. (Hypothermia, Drowning, ice
  fall, avalanche, falls, and air plane crashes)
• Lightning There has never been a lightning
  fatality on the summit, but this doesn't mean
  that there won't be!
• Lastly, as a small non-profit, funds and
  resources to do the work we would like to do.

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A few things we've learned

• It is valuable to be involved directly with
  weather education.
• Every mediated forecast is an opportunity at
  interpretation and education