APEGGA PD Conference April 22-23, 2004

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APEGGA PD Conference April 22-23, 2004

• WHAT ENGINEERS NEED TO KNOW ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE
• David J. Lapp, P.Eng.
• Manager, Professional Practice
• Canadian Council of Professional Engineers

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Presentation Outline

• Introduction to CCPE
• Introduction to Climate Change and its
  Terminology
• The Science of Climate Change
• Impacts of Climate Change
• Engineering and Climate Change
• CCPEs Impact and Adaptation Action Plan
• Concluding Remarks
• References/Sources

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Introduction to CCPE

• CCPE is the federation of 12 provincial and
  territorial associations/ordre and funded
  primarily by them through member fees
• Voice of its constituent members in national and
  international affairs
• Promotes greater understanding of the nature,
  role and contribution of engineering to society

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What does CCPE do?

• Research, surveys and policy development
• Federal government relations
• Member services (life, auto and home insurance,
  investment programs)
• Holds official marks on the terms engineer,
  engineering, professional engineer, P.Eng.,
  consulting engineer, and their French equivalents

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What does CCPE do?

• CCPE has two major subcommittees
• Canadian Engineering Accreditation Board (CEAB) -
  accreditation
• Canadian Engineering Qualifications Board (CEQB)
  qualification and practice
• CEQB has a subcommittee called the Environment
  and Sustainability Committee which is where the
  climate change issue resides

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Introduction to Climate Change and its Terminology

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Climate is not weather

• Climate is average weather
• - and its variability
• - for a particular region
• - over a period of time
• Includes many different elements
• Climate is what you expect
• weather is what you get

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Climate change can be confused with climate
variability

• Climate change is a shift in climate relative
  
• to a given reference time period
• Climate change on a century time scale can
• be called climate variability on millennial
  time
• scales
• Climate variability is often considered
• internal to the climate system
• Climate change is normally caused by
• external factors

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Climate Change What is it?

• Climate change is concerned about significant
  changes in key climate variables such as
• Temperature
• Precipitation and atmospheric moisture
• Snow cover
• Extent of land and sea ice
• Sea level
• Patterns in atmospheric and oceanic circulation
• Extreme weather and climate events
• Overall features of climate variability

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Climate Change Why is it happening

• (1)Past is prologue Earth has experienced many
  different climate regimes throughout geological
  history and will undoubtedly experience them in
  the future.
• (2)Climate change is a naturally occurring
  phenomenon at a geological time scale and more or
  less hospitable to varying life forms, including
  human beings

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Climate Change Why is it happening

• Any factor that alters the radiation received
  from the Sun or lost to space, or alters the
  redistribution of energy within the atmosphere
  and between the atmosphere, land and ocean, can
  affect climate change.

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Climate Change Radiative Forcing

• Changes in the net radiative energy available
  to the global Earth-atmosphere system is termed a
  radiative forcing. Positive radiative forcings
  tend to have a warming effect while Negative
  radiative forcings tend to have a
• cooling effect

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Radiative Forcings

• Factor Radiative Forcing Timescale
• Greenhouse Gases Positive Decades/Centuri
  es
• Tropospheric Aerosols Negative Weeks
• Volcanic Activities Negative Years
• Nuclear Explosions/Asteroids Negative Immediate
• Changed Solar Output Either Varies
• Ocean Circulation Either Varies

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Greenhouse Gas Levels

• GHG Pre-IR 1998 Change Atmos Life
• CO2 280 ppm 365 ppm 1.5 ppm/yr 5 to 200 yr
• CH4 700 ppb 1745 ppb 7.0 ppb/yr 12 yr
• N2O 270 ppb 314 ppb 0.8 ppb/yr 114 yr
• CFC-11 zero 268 ppt -1.4 ppt/yr 45 yr
• HFC-23 zero 14 ppt 0.55 ppt/yr 260 yr
• CF4 40 ppt 80 ppt 1 ppt/yr gt50,000 yr

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Definitions
Mitigation - an intervention to reduce the
sources or enhance the sinks for greenhouse gases
that are a driver for climatic change. This
strategy is used to slow the rate of climatic
change. Adaptation - an adjustment in natural or
human systems in response to actual or expected
climatic changes, which moderates harm or
exploits beneficial opportunities.
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Vulnerability
The degree to which a system is susceptible to,
or unable to cope with, adverse effects of
climate, including climate variability and
extremes. It is a function of the character,
magnitude and rate of climate variation to which
a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its
adaptive capacity.
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How the climate is changing and its impacts
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Global mean mean surface temperature (combined
land/ocean) is rising
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CO2 concentrations are now unprecedented in at
least the past 400,000 years
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Winters in most of Canada are likely to become
wetter
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But summers in interior North America are
expected to become drier
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Sea ice will retreat, particularly in summer
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Sea levels will rise
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Inland flood disasters may become more frequent
as rains become more intense
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The frequency and severity of droughts are also
likely to increase in southern Canada
Central North America
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Disaster losses

• Worldwide during the 1990s there were
• more than 2,500 natural disasters
• more than 650,000 people killed
• more than CDN 1 trillion in damage
• losses were 10-fold greater than during the 1950s

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Canadian natural disasters
Number
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Global costs of natural disasters are rising
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Global natural disaster losses
US billions (2001 prices)
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Recent Extreme Events with Severe Economic
Impacts
Saguenay flood,Quebec
Red River flood, Manitoba
Storm surge, Charlottetown PEI
Prairie drought, AB and SK
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Impacts on Communities (1)

• Infrastructure
• Runoff, landslides and flooding
• Water intake/control infrastructure
• Accelerated deterioration
• Damage
• Reduced security of energy supply
• Design specifications/margin of safety in
  building codes

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Impacts on Communities (2)

• Water Resources
• Increased capacity demands on sewage and water
  control
• Pressures on source water resources and changed
  patterns (especially glacial runoff and
  groundwater)
• Social and economic impacts (tourism and
  recreation)
• Degraded water quality

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Impacts on Communities (3)

• Human Health
• Vector borne and waterborne diseases
• Extreme heat and cold events
• Deteriorating air quality
• Secondary impacts (mold, increased transportation
  accidents and fatalities)

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Projected Effects of Climate Change in Alberta

• Increase in daily minimum temperatures
• Warmer winters (shorter ski seasons, longer golf
  seasons?)
• More frequent periods of drought in southern
  regions
• Reduction of glaciers and changes in spring and
  summer runoff
• Increased frequency and severity of extreme
  weather events
• Water quality and water supply case study of
  impact on Calgary water supply underway
• Shifts in the nature and coverage of forests
• Reduction of permafrost coverage

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Climate Change Challenges

• Long-term reduction of CO2 is a greater challenge
  as energy use will continue to rise. Progress is
  needed across the board continued efficiency
  improvements, more renewable energy and new
  technologies that produce little or no CO2 or
  that capture and sequester it
• Study of Earths climate suggests that small
  forces maintained long enough can cause large
  climate change (non-linear effects, 29th day)
• The debate over climate change is highly charged
  because of the inherent economic stakes

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Climate ChangeSo what?

• If current climate change is natural, then all we
  can do is try to adapt
• If human activity is causing or contributing to
  climate change, then mitigative measures should
  be considered
• Approach seems to be to assume climate change is
  happening, while accepting considerable
  uncertainty surrounding the issue. We have
  certainly not heard the final word on the
  subject.

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Climate Change Measures in Alberta

• Climate Change Adaptation Planning 12
  government departments with Climate Change
  Central
• Legislation in place to require designs to
  account for future changes in emissions
  standards, limits and guidelines
• Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative
• Water sustainability strategy
• Alberta government aims by 2020 to reduce
  emissions intensity by 50 percent below 1990
  levels

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Engineering and Climate Change
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Mitigation

• An intervention to reduce the sources or
  enhance the sinks for greenhouse gases that are a
  driver for climatic change. This strategy is used
  to slow the rate of climatic change.

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Kyoto Protocol

• What is it?
• Current Status

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Kyoto Protocol What is it?

• Negotiated in December 1997, in Kyoto, Japan
• Legally binding agreement under which
  industrialized countries will reduce their
  collective emissions of some greenhouse gases by
  5.2 compared to the year 1990 (but note that,
  compared to the emissions levels that would be
  expected by 2010 without the Protocol, this
  target represents a 29 cut.)
• The goal is to lower overall emissions from six
  greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane,
  nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride, HFCs, and
  PFCs - calculated as an average over the
  five-year period of 2008 - 12.
• National targets range from 8 reductions for the
  European Union and some others to 7 for the US,
  6 for Japan, 0 for Russia, and permitted
  increases of 8 for Australia and 10 for
  Iceland. Canada is targeted with a 6 reduction

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Kyoto Protocol What is it (2)

• Each Annex I (developed) country has agreed to
  limit emissions to the levels described in the
  protocol, but many countries have limits that are
  set above their current production.
• These "extra amounts" can be purchased by other
  countries on the open market. So, for instance,
  Russia currently easily meets its targets, and
  can sell off its credits for millions of dollars
  to countries that don't yet meet their targets,
  Canada for instance.
• This rewards countries that meet their targets,
  and provides financial incentives to others to do
  so as soon as possible.

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Kyoto Protocol Current Status

• As of 2002, 104 countries have ratified the
  protocol, including Canada, People's Republic of
  China, India, Japan, New Zealand, and the fifteen
  countries of the European Union.
• 19 countries have signed the protocol but not
  ratified it. Of those eight are Annex I
  countries Australia (not intending to ratify),
  Croatia , Liechtenstein , Monaco , Russia --
  Russia has changed stances on the issue several
  times, with conflicting statements from various
  ministers. The current stance (as of December
  2003) is that they have significant reservations,
  but are undecided. Switzerland The Kyoto Protocol
  has been ratified by the Senate but not yet by
  the House of Representatives. Ukraine -- Ukraine
  is expected to ratify the treaty. United States
  (not intending to ratify the treaty).

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Mitigation Strategies for Buildings

• Develop and adapt energy-saving technologies
• Construction material selection (minimum use of
  natural resources), design for disassembly,
  efficient and durable envelope, durability
• OM clean renewable energy, energy efficient
  HVAC and lighting systems
• Building renewal/deconstruction waste
  management, deconstruction practice, effective
  and efficient recycling

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Climate Change Emerging Technologies

• Advanced technologies
• Agricultural Waste
• Agriculture
• Air monitoring
• Buildings
• Coal combustion
• Coal mining technology
• Combined cycle
• Combined heat power
• Combined renewable energy technologies
• Electrical
• Engines transmissions
• Forestry energy crops
• Fuel cells
• Gas cleaning systems
• Geothermal energy

• Heat recovery storage
• High temperature technologies
• Hydroelectricity
• Hydrogen
• Industrial technologies
• Industrial waste
• Landfill gas
• Lighting
• Municipal waste
• Nuclear technology
• Ocean energy
• Oil natural gas technology
• Solar energy (heat)
• Solar power
• Transport

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Adaptation

• An adjustment in natural or human systems in
  response to actual or expected climatic changes,
  which moderates harm or exploits beneficial
  opportunities.

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Kyoto Protocol and Adaptation

• All parties to the UN Framework Convention on
  Climate Change (UNFCCC) KYOTO have a
  requirement, under Articles 4.1 and 4.8, to
  assess their national vulnerability and develop
  strategies for adaptation to climate changes.
• They are also required to invest in climate
  research and integrated risk assesment, to
  educate and to communicate this knowledge both
  nationally and internationally. 2005 is the first
  deadline to report progress.

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Types of Adaptation

• Anticipatory before impacts are observed
  (proactive)
• Reactive after impacts are observed
• Autonomous not a conscious response
• Planned the result of a deliberate policy
  decision
• Private initiated and implemented by
  individuals, households or private companies
• Public initiated and implemented by governments
  at all levels
• Source IPCC WGII TAR (2001)

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ADAPTATION
Share the Loss
Bear the Loss
Structural, Technological
Modify the Events
Legislative, Regulatory, Financial
Prevent the Effects
Institutional, Administrative
Market-based
Research
On-site Operations
Education, Behavioural
Change Use
Avoid the Impacts
Change Location
Source adapted from Burton et al., 1993
Burton, 1995b.
 
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Adaptation and Mitigation

• Adaptation is a necessary strategy at all scales
  to compliment climate change mitigation efforts
  (IPCC)
• Engineers should promote and be involved in both
• Mitigation will/may slow but not stop climate
  change we must still adapt
• We need time to adapt in an era of conflicting
  priorities and limited resources
• It is a question of risk management

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Aspects of Adaptation (1)

• Develop approach and practices for protecting and
  improving existing construction against effects
  of climate change
• Develop approach and practices for design,
  operation and maintenance of buildings (such as
  additional cooling requirements in the summer and
  heating in the winter)

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Aspects of Adaptation (2)

• Revise codes, such as flood plain mapping and
  climate data and return frequencies for
  hazard-prone areas, adjusting to new realities,
  i.e. 100-year floods become 500-year floods,
  higher snow and wind loads
• Consider land use restriction on new
  construction, especially for floodplains, coastal
  shoreline, landslide prone areas

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Aspects of Adaptation (3)

• Three-step approach for protecting existing
  buildings
• Screening - to set priority (ranking) for
  detailed evaluation needs (based on buildings
  location, type and use of the building, building
  age, A/M/E systems etc)
• Evaluation - to determine a buildings deficiency
  against effects of climate change
• Retrofitting - improve a buildings performance
  against effects of climate change

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Implications for Engineering Disciplines and
Areas of Practice (1)

• Development of Standards
• Climatology / Meteorology
• Infrastructure Design
• Civil Engineering
• Geotechnical Engineering
• Municipal Engineering
• Municipal Administration
• Hydrotechnical Engineering

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Geotechnical Engineering

• Impacts of increased intensity, duration and
  accumulation of rainfall and flooding include
  weakening of foundations, diminishing slope
  stability, erosion and landslides
• Impacts of drought can include cracking of
  foundations as soil moisture content diminishes

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Implications for Engineering Disciplines and
Areas of Practice (2)

• Structural Engineering
• Materials Engineering
• Mining Engineering
• Mechanical Engineering
• Refrigeration Engineering
• Industrial Design
• Environmental Engineering
• Waste Management Engineering

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Structural engineering

• Design of structures needs to include measures to
  protect structures from impacts of weather
  changes and measures to reduce the effects that
  the life cycles of structures have on the climate
• Measures include selection of construction
  materials and management of construction waste
  materials can contribute to GHG mitigation as
  well as adaptation/performance

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Structural engineering (2)

• Structural engineers that do not design for
  climate change open themselves to critical
  underestimations of structural strength and
  stability
• Designing for extreme weather monitor and
  measure structures in areas with extreme weather
  or where it is changing significantly
• Confirm and fine-tune climate design data for
  development and/or updating of codes and standards

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Implications for Engineering Disciplines and
Areas of Practice (3)

• Chemical Engineering
• Natural Resource Management
• Agriculture
• Forest Management
• Building Engineering
• Lighting Engineering
• HVAC Technology
• Building Envelope Design

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Implications for Engineering Disciplines and
Areas of Practice (4)

• Real Property Management
• Architecture
• Information Technology
• Port Authorities
• Shipping Regulation
• Shipping Regulation and Coast Guards
• Fishing Quota Regulation

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Vulnerability of the Energy Sector

• Drought caused 6 billion Kwh loss to Manitoba
  Hydro in 1987-88, 9 billion in 1988-89 - spent
  18M to manage the situation
• 2001 and 2003 heat waves forced Ontario to import
  thousands of MW
• Ontario/Quebec ice storm 1998 loss of power,
  transmission lines and towers, billions of
  dollars of infrastructure and property damage

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Energy System Adaptation Concerns

• More warmer days
• Increased energy demand from air conditioners
• More intense weather events
• More robust energy system designs
• Larger over capacity design margins
• Increased cloud cover
• Solar power development compromised
• Possible Shifting Wind Patterns
• Wind Power Development could be compromised
• Source Nodelman (2003)

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Energy System AdaptationDesign Issues

• Critical vs. Non-Critical Systems
• Do we have good definitions?
• Is there such a thing as 100 reliability?
• How long can system outages reasonably be
  tolerated?
• Energy system shortages?
• Will we tolerate brown out during peak
  electricity periods?
• How much over capacity is actually required?
• Robust design
• What is an appropriate safety margin in design?
• How robust do energy systems have to be?
• Source Nodelman (2003)

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Adaptation Example Northern Infrastructure
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12 Principles of Green Engineering

• 1. Designers need to strive to ensure that all
  material and energy inputs and outputs are as
  inherently non-hazardous as possible.
• 2. It is better to prevent waste than to treat or
  clean up waste after it is formed.
• 3. Separation and purification operations should
  be designed to minimize energy consumption and
  materials use.
• 4. Products, processes, and systems should be
  designed to maximize mass, energy, space, and
  time efficiency.

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12 Principles of Green Engineering(Contd)

• 5. Products, processes, and systems should be
  "output pulled" rather than "input pushed"
  through the use of energy and materials.
• 6. Embedded entropy and complexity must be viewed
  as an investment when making design choices on
  recycle, reuse, or beneficial disposition.
• 7. Targeted durability, not immortality, should
  be a design goal.
• 8. Design for unnecessary capacity or capability
  (e.g. "one size fits all") solutions should be
  considered a design flaw

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12 Principles of Green Engineering(Contd)

• 9. Material diversity in multi-component products
  should be minimized to promote disassembly and
  value retention.
• 10. Design of products, processes, and systems
  must include integration and interconnectivity
  with available energy and materials flow.
• 11. Products, processes, and systems should be
  designed for performance in a commercial
  "afterlife".
• 12. Material and energy inputs should be
  renewable rather than depleting.

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Risk Management and Adaptation to Climate Change

• Key for engineers considering adaptation
  strategies is to define the risks and making
  choices based on them
• Risk management process facilitates the selection
  of adaptation strategies by providing a framework
  for managing them
• CAN/CSA Q850-97 Risk management Guideline for
  Decision-Makers A National Standard for Canada
  defines the terms and lays out steps of the risk
  management process in Canada

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Risk Management Process

• Initiation
• Preliminary Analysis
• Risk Estimation
• Risk Evaluation
• Risk Control
• Action and Monitoring
• Risk Communications

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Words of Advice

• Do not base design criteria solely on historic
  climate
• Maximize flexibility recognizing uncertainty and
  need to accommodate extreme climatic events that
  occur more frequently and more severely than in
  the past
• Consider climate change as another factor in
  risk management strategy
• Define and monitor systems relative to critical
  thresholds

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CCPE Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Action
Plan
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Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Action Plan
(CCAP)

• Developed by the Environment and Sustainability
  Committee of the CEQB
• Results of the Climate Change Impact and
  Adaptation Workshop - Adapting to Climate Change
  - The Role of Canadas Engineers February 2003
• Workshop was co-funded by the NRCan Climate
  Change Action Fund

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CCAP Strategies

• Education of engineering students and
  professional engineers
• Raise awareness of the profession, industry,
  decision makers and the public on the need to
  consider impacts of and adaptation to climate
  change, however caused
• Develop standards and codes of practice to
  incorporate into engineering design/practice
• Formal and sustained links between scientists and
  engineers

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CCAP Action Areas

• Communication
• Education
• Continuing Professional Development (CPD)
• Guidelines, Codes and Standards
• Networking of Scientists and Engineers
• Funding Arrangements

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Engineering Infrastructure Expert Working Groups

• Identify and recommend research, development and
  pilot/demonstration projects
• Assist in review of existing national codes,
  standards, policies and practices for specific
  engineering infrastructures
• Advice to federal government departments
• Need for volunteers with specific expertise from
  the profession across the country

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Concluding Remarks (1)

• Engineers need to consider the impacts of climate
  change on future designs
• In certain areas of practice develop appropriate
  adaptive measures
• Engineers are already deeply involved in
  mitigation efforts development and
  commercialization of technologies and best
  practices to reduce GHGs
• Adaptation measures are less developed across the
  disciplines role of the profession
• Adaptation is the job of engineers

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Concluding Remarks (2)

• Will require adjustments to the principles of
  engineering design prediction vs historical
  data
• Further work is required on costs and benefits of
  adaptation as well as qualitative measures
• Adaptation measures will require engineers to
  work closely with other stakeholders including
  planners, scientists, politicians and the public
• The profession wants to document and communicate
  examples of engineering practice that consider
  and/or anticipate the impacts of climate change

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Concluding Remarks (3)

• More research is needed to estimate impacts
• Climate change models need increased resolution
• Climate change is happening regardless of cause
  we need to mitigate change as best we can but
  most importantly we must adapt

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Useful Reference

• Impacts of Climate Change on Architectural and
  Engineering Practices A Preliminary
  Investigation Innovations and Solutions
  Directorate, PWGSC, Ottawa, Ontario September
  2003 (ftp.pwgsc.gc.ca/rpstech/ClimateChange/pwgscC
  C.pdf)

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Useful Websites (1)

• www.climatechange.gc.ca
• www.ec.gc.ca/climate (Environment Canada)
• www.adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca (Natural Resources
  Canada)
• www.c-ciarn.ca (Climate Change Impacts and
  Adaptation Research Network)
• www.csa.ca (Canadian Standards Association)
• www.infrastructurecanada.gc.ca
• www.ipcc.ch (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
  Change)
• www.unfcc.int (Kyoto Protocol)

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Useful Websites (2)

• www3.gov.ab.ca/env/climate
• www.climatechangecentral.com

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The Canadian Council of Professional Engineers
Web site www.ccpe.ca Tel. [phone] Fax
613-230-5759 E-mail info_at_ccpe.ca