Public Review Draft CARBON MONOXIDE AND PM-10 AIR QUALITY CONFORMITY DETERMINATION FOR THE 2035 AMATS METROPOLITAN TRANSPORTATION PLAN

1
Public Review DraftCARBON MONOXIDE AND
PM-10AIR QUALITY CONFORMITY DETERMINATIONFOR
THE 2035 AMATS METROPOLITAN TRANSPORTATION PLAN
Municipality of Anchorage Department of Health
and Human Services Air Quality Program April 2,
2012
2
What is conformity?

• AMATS must make an affirmative determination that
  the MTP is consistent with Alaska State Air
  Quality Control Plan (SIP) and does not interfere
  with the attainment or maintenance of air quality
  standards.
• FHWA must concur.
• Federal regulations (40 CFR 93) prescribe how
  this is to be done.

3
AMATS Planning Area includes the CO Maintenance
Area in the Anchorage bowl and the Eagle River
PM-10 Nonattainment Area in urban Eagle River.
4

• Carbon monoxide (CO)
• Colorless odorless gas produced by incomplete
  combustion
• NAAQS 9 ppm for 8-hour average
• 79 from motor vehicle emissions, a large portion
  of which is generated during cold starts.
• Highest concentrations on cold, calm winter days
  during strong temperature inversions.
• Residential areas where warm-up idling is
  prevalent have highest concentrations.

• PM-10
• Airborne particulate less than 10 microns in
  diameter
• NAAQS 150 µg/m3 for 24-hour average
• 90 or more from geological sources
• Paved and unpaved road dust
• Natural wind blown silt from glacial river
  valleys in Mat Su
• Highest concentrations during spring break-up and
  fall freeze-up.
• Highest concentrations near major paved roadways
  or unpaved roads.

5
CO conformity
6
Trend in 2nd Maximum 8-hour CO Concentration at
Anchorage CO Monitoring Stations 1980 - 2010
7
Motor Vehicle CO Emission Budget

• 156.5 tons per day
• theoretical estimate of how much CO can be
  emitted by motor vehicles in the inventory area
  without violating the NAAQS
• based on measured CO air quality and computer
  model estimates of emissions in base year 2007
• set out in the Anchorage CO Maintenance Plan
  (SIP) and approved by the EPA

8
CO Emissions Forecast for MTP
Emissions in 2015, 2025, and 2035 depend on how
much growth there will be in motor vehicle travel
and how much CO each vehicle will be
emitting. Will improved emission control
technology offset the growth in vehicle travel?
9
AMATS Transportation Model provides projections
of motor vehicle travel activity for 2015, 2025
and 2035

• Uses modified ISER regional population and
  employment projections in combination with
  guidance from the MOA Comprehensive Plan to
  determine where people will live and work and are
  therefore likely to travel.
• Propensity to travel is based on household
  income. More trips are generated in high income
  areas.
• Overlays the transportation network envisioned
  in the MTP for analysis years 2015, 2025 and
  2035.
• Model thinks like a pipe network. The amount
  of flow amount of traffic
• People avoid pipes that are congested and do
  not necessarily take the shortest route between
  here and there.
• MTP adds or enlarges pipes, and provides
  transportation alternatives (transit, vanpool,
  carpool, bicycle, pedestrian) to help relieve
  congestion.

Regional ISER projections weremodified to fit
AMATS boundaries
10
Congestion identified in 2035 No build scenario
The transportation model is used to identify
roadway links that are likely to be congested in
the future.
11
Summary Inputs and Outputs AMATS Transportation
Model
2015 2025 2035
Population 233,829 250,739 258,510
Households 89,448 99,475 103,956
Employment 153,127 165,485 177,806

VMT 3,365,707 3,910,964 4,316,888
Average Speed (mph) 32.1 33.0 35.6

Vehicle Trips (starts) 731,520 797,556 840,989
Vehicle Trips per Household 8.2 8.0 8.1
Average Trip Distance (miles) 4.6 4.9 5.1
12
The EPA MOVES (Motor Vehicle Emission Simulation)
Model is used to estimate motor vehicle CO
emission rates under Anchorage-specific
conditions

• Weekday in January, ambient temperature 4 ºF
• Anchorage vehicle type and age distribution
• Local gasoline and diesel specifications
• Anchorage distribution of gasoline vs. diesel vs.
  alternative fuel vehicles

13
Sample computation of CO emissions in one grid
for AM period (7 am 9 am) for analysis year
2035
Facility Type MOVES Road Type VMT(miles) Speed(mph) MOVES EmissionRate(g/mi) CO(lbs)
Freeway 4 2,097 59.5 6.3 29
Major Arterial 5 854 22.6 6.4 12
Minor Arterial 5 1,839 23.7 6.2 25
Collector 5 144 17.6 7.2 2
Local Streets 5 1,301 15.0 7.4 21
TOTAL -- 6,105 89
14
MOVES summary results
2007 2015 2025 2035
Average Starting Emission Rate grams per trip 120.5 127.6 125.0 124.5
Average Running Emission Rate grams per mile 11.0 8.4 6.6 6.4
2007 2015 2025 2035
Average Starting Emission Rate grams per trip 120.5 127.6 125.0 124.5
Average Running Emission Rate grams per mile 11.0 8.4 6.6 6.4
Note that the starting emission rate increases by
4 between 2007 and 2035 while the running
emission rate drops by 40.
15
MOVES emission rates are multiplied by
transportation model estimates of travel activity
to compute total CO emissions
Compute emissions in analysis year 2035

• Starting emissions starting emission rate x
  number of starts 124.5 grams/start x
  840,989 starts 104,703,130 grams 115.3 tons
  per day
• Running emissions running emission rate x
  vehicle miles traveled 6.4 grams/mile x
  4,316,888 miles 27,628,083 grams 30.3 tons
  per day
• Extended idle emissions (long haul trucks) 0.3
  tons per day
• TOTAL MOTOR VEHICLE EMISSIONS
  145.8 tons per day

16
The AMATS MTP is under budget throughout the 2012
2035 planning horizon despite the apparent
starting emission rate anomaly.
17
PM-10 conformity
18

• No violations of the NAAQS since 1987
• Gravel roads were paved or surfaced with recycled
  asphalt
• PM-10 Limited Maintenance Plan submitted to EPA
  in 2010 (still under review)
• EPA has approved use of simplified LMP process
  for this conformity determination

Federal Register notice expected in late April.
19
Trend in Eagle River PM-10 Concentrations
DV has been below 98 µg/m3 since 2006. Thus,
Eagle River qualifies for LMP option.
20
PM-10 conformity under LMP option

• No emission budget test necessary because limited
  maintenance areas determined to have low
  probability of violating the NAAQS even with
  anticipated growth in motor vehicle travel.
• LMP conformity requires
• Affirm annual DV below 98 µg/m3 v
• Timely implementation of transportation control
  measures (TCMs) v
• MTP cannot interfere with TCMs v

21
Interagency consultation 40 CFR 93.105 93.112

• Requires federal, state and local agencies to
  review and consult
• Teleconferences held with FHWA, EPA, FTA, ADEC,
  ADOTPF, AMATS and MOA
• Minor edits made as a consequence of comments
  from FHWA and EPA are reflected in public review
  draft.
• Consultation participants gave go ahead to
  proceed with public review draft during
  consultation on March 6.

22
AMATS Air Quality Advisory Committee
Recommendation