Purpose: Develop Tool to Estimate Demand for Rural Intercity Bus Services

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(No Transcript)
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Purpose Develop Tool to Estimate Demand for
Rural Intercity Bus Services

• Goals Included
• Easy to Use
• Not Requiring Access to Specialized Data or
  Software
• Appropriate for Rural Intercity Bus Services
• Sensitive to Variety of Factors Potentially
  Affecting Demand

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Methodology

• Literature Review
• Gather Data to Identify Rural Intercity Bus
  Services
• Survey State DOTs to Identify Funded Operators
• Contact or Survey Operators to Obtain Data on
  Ridership, Operating Characteristics
• Classify Services
• Develop Full Data for Each Service
• Points Served
• Frequency
• Route Length
• Population
• Demographic Data
• Service to Key Destinations (Major Medical,
  Airports, Passenger Rail, Correctional
  Facilities, Universities)
• Connectivity to the Intercity Bus Network

- Loudoun County, VA, - Charles County, MD,
- Prince William County, VA, - Outer Banks, NC
, - Rutland VT, - Springfield, VT, -
Nampa/Caldwell, ID - Williamsburg, VA
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Methodology (continued)

• Classification Revised Following Panel Meeting
• Population Alternatives
• Municipal populations at stops
• Urbanized Area/Census Designated Place population
• Test Relationships Among Variables
• Develop Statistical ModelsRegression
• Develop Alternative Models Using Data from the
  National Personal Transportation Survey
• Develop User-Friendly Toolkit

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Data on Services

• Classified as
• Regional Not operated by an intercity bus
  carrier, part of the national network (local
  fares, information not national)
• ICB Operated by an intercity carrier that is
  part of the national network (allows for
  interline ticketing and information)
• Key Issue Definition of Intercity
• Not all Section 5311(f) funded routes included
• Connectivity to National Intercity Network a key
  characteristic used in classifying services
• Non-intercity services deleted (commuter
  characteristics, long rural transit routes with
  no connectivity, etc.)
• Many issues with data
• Ridership (one full year, for this particular
  route/service)
• Service Characteristics (round-trips per week)
• Fares (Cents per mile calculated from end-to-end
  fare)

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Resulting Database

• 135 routes identified in survey
• 120 routes with basic data (ridership)
• 57 routes that met final definition of intercity
  and had complete data

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Population Data

• 2000 Census
• Use of Census-designated areas, rather than GIS
• Initially used Municipal populations for each
  stop
• Summed for the route
• Issues led to use of Urbanized Area/Census
  Designated Place populations
• Population of Destination/Origin in Major Metro
  Areahow to address?

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Resulting Models

• Regression Model
• Trip Rate Model

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Regression Model

• Basic Model
• Annual Ridership -2,803.536 0.194(Average
  Origin Population) 314.734(the number of stops
  on the route) 4971.668(yes to airport
  service/connections) 5783.653(yes to service
  provided by an intercity provider)
• R2 0.712, Adjusted R2 0.690
• All variable significant a 5 level or better
• Signs are plausible
• Shows positive impact of connectivity to air and
  national network
• Use of average population and number of stops
  positively related to ridership

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Trip Rate Model

• Used data from National Household Travel Survey
• Base Data was Long Distance Trips (50 miles or
  more one-way)
• By Urban and Rural
• By Region (Census Divisions)
• By Income Group
• Under 30,000
• Under 75,000
• Over 75,000
• Converted to a Per Capita rate for Rural Trips,
  by region
• Bus Mode Share of .09 rounded to 1 produced
  best estimates

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Accuracy of Models

• Trip Rate with 1 Mode Share
• Within 50 of actual ridership 45.60
• Within 10 of actual ridership 14.00
• Adjusted 1 Trip Rate Model (used regression to
  predict error terms, which were then subtracted
  from Trip Rate predictions)
• Within 50 of actual ridership 54.40
• Within 10 of actual ridership 15.80
• Regression Model
• Within 50 of actual ridership 59.60
• Within 10 of actual ridership 17.50

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Limitations

• Continued need for judgment in application of the
  models
• Which estimate to use
• Diligence in entering plausible data
• Deciding whether or not a service is operated by
  an Intercity Bus Carrier, or serves an Airport
  if some type of transit connection is required
• Neither model is sensitive to changes in fare or
  frequency
• Neither model includes overhead or through
  ridership that might result from being part of a
  network

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Potential Next Steps

• More data, try again
• Stop level modelspredict ridership at a single
  stop
• Further efforts to include fare and frequency
  effects
• Impact of terminals and park and ride
• Include demand tools in an overall intercity
  planning and procedures guidebook
• Develop a national network model to include
  network effects (may be more important as Section
  5311(f) is used to fill network gaps, rather than
  replace dead-end branches)

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Toolkit Development

• Simple and User-Friendly
• Not Requiring GIS Software
• Self-ContainedIncludes Data
• Includes Both Models
• Provides Reference to Ridership on Comparable
  Routes
• Allows for User Adjustments to Reflect Special
  Conditions

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Toolkit

• Product is a CD, Requires Excel
• All Directions and References are Included
• Includes Introduction, Application Steps
• Example of Application
• Includes All Required Census Data

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Model Usage

• Insert disk (requires Excel)
• Initial screen has links to text on
  applicability, background, and steps in use
• Second screen is for inputuse pre-loaded Census
  data to input route, check boxes for service
  attributes
• Press input button, third screen gives ridership
  estimates for each model
• Third screen also gives route characteristics and
  ridership for the four most comparable routes in
  the database
• Fourth screen allows for manual adjustments on
  Trip Rate model to account for availability of
  other intercity bus service at points on the
  route in question, or presence of a major
  university or other generator

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Demonstration Western Maryland

• Imagine that you are a planner working in the
  State of Maryland
• A statewide intercity bus needs study has
  identified the existing network, and compared it
  to areas of the state with transit needs and
  likely key destinations
• A gap in service is identified in far western
  Maryland, and so you want to see if there might
  be sufficient demand to support a Section 5311(f)
  project
• You have the TCRP Project B -37 Toolkit disc,
  which you insert in your computer, it opens to
  the following page

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Demonstration (continued) Home Page
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Demonstration (continued) Home Page

• You click on the link and read about how the
  Toolkit was developed.
• You click on the link and read about the
  applicability of the Toolkit.
• You click on the link and read about the steps in
  applying the Toolkit.
• The first steps involve developing a proposed
  route to test.
• Identify existing services in the area of concern
• Develop a proposed route and identify the
  potential stops

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Demonstration of Toolkit Identify Existing
Service
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Demonstration (continued)

• Your goal is to connect the eastern and western
  rural areas of the state with the populated
  center, and connect to the frequent intercity bus
  services in the Washington-New York corridorso
  the service will need to connect to Baltimore
• Points identified for this possible service
  include
• Baltimore
• Frederick
• Hagerstown
• Hancock
• Cumberland
• Frostburg
• Grantsville
• Morgantown, West Virginia
• You click on the button to go to the input page

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Demonstration of Toolkit Define Proposed Route
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Demonstration (continued) Input Page

• Most of the route will be in Maryland, so you
  enter Maryland in the blank for state.
• You enter the stops for the proposed route. You
  can begin by typing the place name, and in the
  blank it will auto-fill with the place name. Or
  you can scroll through the list to find each
  stop.
• The Toolkit finds the population for each stop
  you identify.
• In this case, you are anticipating that the
  proposed route will be operated by an intercity
  bus carrier, so you check that box. You are not
  planning to serve an airport, so you leave that
  blank. You are not aware of federal or state
  correctional facilities at any of the stops on
  the route, so you leave that blank. You need to
  enter the one-way route length, so you jump to a
  mapping site, and enter the route to obtain the
  mileage. It is best to check that output to make
  sure that the route length includes all the
  proposed stops.
• You click on the button to obtain the results,
  shown on the next page.

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Demonstration (continued) Input Page
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Demonstration (continued) Outputs Page

• On this page you find information restating the
  input parameters you entered previously.
• Below that are the results of the two demand
  models
• For the Regression model, there is an estimate of
  route level demand accompanied by some
  information about the 95 Confidence Interval for
  that estimate. This gives you some information
  about the potential range around that estimate.
• For the Trip Rate Model there is also an estimate
  of demand.
• Below the demand estimates is a box labeled
  Comparable Routes with ridership and service
  characteristics for the four routes in the
  Toolkit database that are most similar to the
  proposed route. This may validate your estimates,
  or raise questions. More information is available
  for each of the comparable routes by clicking on
  the link.

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Demonstration (continued) Output Page
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Demonstration (continued) Manual Adjustment Page

• Below the Trip Rate Model is a box stating that
  adjustments can be made to the trip rate model
  results. You click on that, and read the
  information provided at the link.
• A new Manual Adjustment page opens. On this
  page you find the estimated demand for each stop
  on the proposed route, as estimated by the Trip
  Rate model. There is no demand estimated for the
  largest population point, as it is assumed to
  have a significant amount of additional bus
  service already.

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Demonstration (continued) Adjustment Page
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Demonstration (continued) Manual Adjustment Page

• Following the directions, you make changes in the
  estimated demand for several of the stops.
• For Frederick and Hagerstown you find out that
  the proposed service would only be a fourth of
  the total service, and so it is likely to capture
  only a fourth of the predicted ridership. You
  enter the new demand numbers in the blanks on the
  Manual Adjustment page.
• In Frostburg there is a major state university
  that is likely to increase the demand. You
  adjust the ridership up and enter the new figure.
• In Morgantown there is both a university that
  will increase ridership, and other intercity bus
  service, necessitating a downward adjustment in
  the estimate. You enter the new estimated
  figure.
• At the top of the Manually Adjusted Trip Rate
  Demand column a new total appears, summing the
  adjusted demand estimates by stop.
• As can be seen, the manual adjustments can make a
  significant difference in the estimated
  ridership. This information may also be used to
  develop alternative revenue estimates, which may
  be needed to develop project budgets.

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Demonstration (continued) Adjustment Page
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For Further Information

• To obtain the Toolkit and/or the Final Report
  Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP)
  website
• http//www.tcrponline.org/publications_home.shtml
• To contact the study team
• Fred Fravel or Reyes Barboza
• KFH Group, Inc.
• 4920 Elm Street, Suite 350
• Bethesda, MD 20814
• Voice 301-951-8660
• Fax [phone]
• Email ffravel_at_KFHGroup.com or rbarboza_at_KFHGroup.c
  om