Guidelines for Impact and

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UNFCCC Workshop on Methodologies on Climate
Change Impact and Adaptation / UNDP-GEF National
Communications Support Programme Workshop on
an Adaptation Policy Framework, Ste. Adèle,
Québec, Canada, 11-14 June 2001
Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation
Assessment Design versus Implementation Issues
RICHARD J.T. KLEIN
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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues

• OUTLINE
• Vulnerability Assessment What and Why?
• The IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing
  Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
• The AIACC Framework
• Conclusions

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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues
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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues
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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues
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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues

• ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT
• The practice of identifying options to adapt to
  climate change and evaluating them in terms of
  criteria such as availability, benefits, costs,
  effectiveness, efficiency and feasibility.
• (IPCC, 2001)

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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues

• PURPOSE OF ADAPTATION ASSESSMENT
• To contribute to vulnerability assessment by
  estimating the potential to reduce adverse
  impacts and benefit from positive impacts
• To contribute to policymaking by recommending
  anticipatory adaptation measures, including their
  implementation considerations.

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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues

• THE IPCC TECHNICAL GUIDELINES (1994)
• Define problem
• Select method
• Test method / sensitivity
• Select scenarios
• Assess biophysical impacts and socio-economic
  impacts
• Assess autonomous adjustments
• Evaluate adaptation strategies.

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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues

• EVALUATION OF ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
• Define objectives
• Specify important climatic impacts
• Identify adaptation options
• Examine constraints
• Quantify measures / formulate alternative
  strategies
• Weight objectives / evaluate trade-offs
• Recommend adaptation measures.

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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues

• FROM ADAPTATION TO ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
• Implicit in most vulnerability studies using the
  IPCC Technical Guidelines is the assumption that
  there are no constraints in implementing the
  adaptation options identified and analysed
• Information on the extent to which mechanisms are
  in place and technologies, expertise and other
  resources are available is likely to give a more
  reliable picture of vulnerability to climate
  change.

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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues

• ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
• The ability to plan, prepare for, facilitate and
  implement adaptation measures. Factors that
  determine adaptive capacity of human systems
  include economic wealth, technology, information
  and skills, infrastructure, institutions and
  equity.
• (IPCC, 2001)

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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues

• LINK WITH TODAYS CLIMATE VARIABILITY
• Analysis of a countrys ability to cope with
  impacts associated with todays natural climate
  variability can provide useful empirical
  information on its capacity to adapt to climate
  change.
• It can also be the basis of a prioritisation of
  adaptation needs that will reduce vulnerability
  to both todays and tomorrows climate.

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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues
Problem Definition (e.g., initial GCM results,
observations, stakeholder dialogue)
Project Scoping (e.g., sectoral sensitivity
analysis, stakeholder dialogue)

• Impact Assessment
• data collection
• scenario development
• model application
• integrated impact analysis

• Adaptation Assessment
• data collection
• evaluation of adaptation options
• analysis of implementation constraints
• assessment of adaptive capacity

Integrated Vulnerability Assessment
Academic Insights
Policy Recommendations
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Guidelines for Impact and Adaptation Assessment
Design versus Implementation Issues

• CONCLUSIONS
• The IPCC Technical Guidelines consider all
  relevant issues of adaptation assessment,
  including adaptive capacity.
• The fact that adaptation needs follow from the
  impact assessment strongly reduces their policy
  relevance.
• Consideration of vulnerability to climate
  variability along with climate change enables and
  encourages policy-relevant assessment of adaptive
  capacity.

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