Review of Guidelines Worksheet Structure

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Review of Guidelines Worksheet Structure Data
Analysis
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Definition of a Prison Sentence Has Changed
Abolition of parole
Prison - 1 yr. or more Jail - 12 mos. or less
Prison - 1 yr. or more Jail - 12 mos. or less
Prison - more than 6 mos. Jail - 6 mos. or less
Prison - more than 2 yrs. Jail - 2 yrs. or less
Prison - 1 yr. or more Jail - less than 1 yr.
Structure of current guidelines
policy of Virginia Department of Corrections
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Current Sentencing Guidelines Structure
Conviction
Section A Incarceration gt 6 months Yes/No
Recommendation
No
Yes
Section C Sentence Length Recommendation
- Incarceration gt 6 months
Section B Probation or Incarceration up to 6
months Recommendation
Probation
Incarceration Up to 6 months
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Study Objectives

• Staff is conducting exploratory analysis to
  examine
• the impact of the inconsistency between the
  structure of the guidelines and the definition of
  a prison sentence,
• the differences in jail versus prison sanctioning
  decisions,
• the impact of nonviolent risk assessment
  recommendations on sentencing decisions, and
• the feasibility of simplifying the guidelines
  while maintaining statistical power of the
  sentencing models. This leads to a consideration
  of different worksheet structures.

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Exploration of Different Worksheet Structures

• Study the possibility of revising worksheets to
  reflect current definition of a prison inmate
• Section A- In/Out (Incarceration 1 Year or More)
• Section B- Prob. or Incarceration up to 12 Months
• Section C- Sentence Length (1 Year or More)
• Study the possibility of reducing the number of
  worksheets from 3 to 2
• Section A- Incarceration In/Out
• Section B- Sentence Length
• Driven by historical sentencing data

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Data Analysis

• Staff is utilizing FY1999 FY2003
  Pre/Post-Sentence Investigation (PSI) data
• FY2003 is complete
• Only truth-in-sentencing cases are included
• Analysis is being conducted by guidelines offense
  group
• First group analyzed was Schedule I/II drugs
• Make up 32 of all guidelines cases
• Disposition and sentence length vary widely by
  primary offense

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FY1999-2003 Drug Schedule I/II PSI Cases Analyzed
Primary Offense Number Percent Incarceration Rate (Pct)
Possession/1st Offender 22,135 61.8 44.7
Imitation Schedule I/II 535 1.5 60.7
Accommodation Sale 961 2.7 70.2
Sale, PWID, etc/Sell to minors 11,484 32.0 77.8
Sale, PWID, etc 2nd or subsequent 713 2.0 89.9
Total 35,828 100.0 57.1
Held out of analysis due to extremely high
incarceration rate
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Predictive Power of Disposition Models
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Extralegal Factors Which Predict Disposition
Outcome

• Jury trial
• Pre-trial status
• Male offender
• Nonwhite offender
• Educational level
• Drug abuse apparent
• Committed for mental health treatment
• Judicial region and circuit

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Legal Factors Which Predict Disposition Outcome

• Primary offense
• Primary offense additional counts
• Additional offenses
• Knife or firearm in possession at time of
  offense
• Mandatory firearm conviction for current event
• Prior convictions/adjudications
• Number of prior incarcerations
• Number of prior felony drug convictions
• On current Drug Schedule I/II Section A
  worksheet

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Legal Factors Which Predict Disposition Outcome
(cont.)

• Number of prior felony person convictions
• Number of prior felony property convictions
• Number of prior probation/parole revocations
• Drug type/amount (1 gm or more of meth, cocaine,
  heroin)
• Possession 2 or more prior Schedule I/II
  felonies
• Legal restraint
• Number of prior misdemeanor convictions
• On current Drug Schedule I/II Section A
  worksheet

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Exploration of Different Worksheet Structures in
Drug Schedule I/II Cases

• Is it feasible to reduce the number of worksheets
  from 3 to 2?
• A proposed sentencing model incorporating the
  legal factors was developed. Cases were scored
  on the accompanying worksheet and their scores
  were compared with their observed outcomes.
• Analysis showed that simplification of the
  worksheets can be achieved only at the expense of
  a loss in the statistical power of the sentencing
  model.
• Predictive accuracy of the proposed model peaked
  at 64 - lower than that achieved under the
  current model.
• Exploring the possibility of revising the
  worksheets to reflect the current definition of a
  prison inmate appears to be a better strategy.
• Section A In/Out (Incarceration 1 year or more)
• Section B Probation or Incarceration up to 12
  months
• Section C Sentence Length (1 year or more)

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Potential Sentencing Guidelines Structure
Conviction
Section A Incarceration 1 Yr or more Yes/No
Recommendation
No
Yes
Section C Sentence Length Recommendation
- Incarceration 1 Yr or more
Section B Probation or Incarceration up to 12
months Recommendation
Probation
Incarceration Up to 12 months
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