A First Step in Decision Support Tools for Humanitarian Assistance during Catastrophic Disasters: Modeling Hazard Generated Needs

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A First Step in Decision Support Tools for
Humanitarian Assistance during Catastrophic
Disasters Modeling Hazard Generated Needs

• John R. Harrald
• Frank Fiedrich
• Theresa I. Jefferson
• Clinton Mexted-Freeman
• Sebnem Sener

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Catastrophic Preparedness

• Catastrophic events exceed our ability to
• accurately anticipate hazard generated
  humanitarian needs,
• to develop the capacity and capability to meet
  these needs,
• to deploy adequate resources to minimize human
  suffering
• Recent Examples
• The US response to Hurricane Katrina (2005)
• The Pakistan/Kashmir earthquake (2005),
• the Andaman Nicobar (Aceh) earthquake and tsunami
  (2004)
• New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic
  Preparedness
• Project funded by FEMA, Project Team
• University of Illinois Mid American Earthquake
  Center
• George Washington University Institute for
  Crisis Disaster and Risk Management
• IEM, Inc

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Hazard-Response Generated Needs

• Examples
• Minimizing impact to the population
• Care for the injured and ill
• Processing fatalities
• Hazard-related welfare needs
• Protection against continuing threat
• Maintaining community order
• Promoting optimal recovery

Examples Achieving/maintaining situational
awareness Information processing Effective
decision-making Mobilizing utilizing
resources Coordinating actions across
stovepipes Communication-response
public Political and bureaucratic issues
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Developing Scenario-driven Catastrophic Plans
Hazard-generated welfare needs required for preparedness and response Loss estimation variables used to predict hazard generated welfare needs
Medical supplies (pharmaceuticals) Housing damage, population demographics, power loss, transportation network loss, damage to medical facilities
Temporary shelter/temporary housing Housing damage, population demographics, income distribution of population, owner/renter distribution
Mass feeding Housing damage, population demographics, power loss, transportation infrastructure
Critical commodities (water, food, ice) Impact on water infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, housing damage, population demographics
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Modeling and Decision Support

• Transition from
• doing the best we can with what we have
• being prepared to do what is needed
• Improved methods and models are required
• Methods should be based on pre-event scenario
  estimates, combined with pre-event capabilities
  assessments, allowing the development of scenario
  driven catastrophic planning
• HAZUS-MH
• Multi-attribute model (Harrald) funded by
  American Red Cross
• Extended in projects funded by
• the National Science Foundation
• conducted in partnership with the Association of
  Bay Area Governments (ABAG)
• used as a primary source for earthquake mass care
  preparedness planning in the San Francisco Bay
  Area
• No adequate models for hazard generated needs
  such as the required capacity for feeding and
  mass care commodities as well as medical
  requirements

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Implications For Humanitarian Assistance Decision
Support Systems
Figure 2
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The New Madrid Seismic Zone Project

• The project objective is to bridge the gap
  between loss estimation modeling preparedness
  and response decision making which is one of the
  firsts in this area.

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