Naval Academy Science

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Naval Academy Science Engineering
ConferenceAnnapolis, MD, 4 - 6 November 2012
Michael E. CampanaOregon State University Past
President, AWRA
Crisis, Conflict, Security, Sustainability The
Future of Water
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Pacific Northwest USA

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Talk Organization

• Background Information
• Some Facts
• MDGs
• Global Water Issues
• Columbia Colorado Basins
• Conflict
• Path Forward

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Pacific Northwest USA

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Background

• Born in Manhattan (NY, not KS). Grew up on Long
  Island, NY. Left East for good in 1970 (one year
  of penance in Atlanta in early 1980s)
• Undergraduate degree in Geology College of
  William Mary (Class of 1970)
• Learned my water (hydrology - MS PhD
  mathematics minor) at U. of Arizona emphasis on
  groundwater
• Spent virtually entire adult life (1970 2006)
  living and working (Desert Research Institute and
  U of NM) in arid West (AZ, NV, CA, NM).
  Rehydration western Oregon since 2006 (c. 1
  meter of precipitation/year)
• International work Central America, South
  Caucasus, Central Asia, Egypt, Europe
• Favorite compliment (depending upon who says it)
  You dont sound like an academic!

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Watershed Events

• 1975 Finished graduate work in hydrology at U of
  AZ. Desert Research Institute (1976-89) UNM
  (1989-2006)
• Mid-1990s went over to dark side - policy,
  management, etc. Hung out with economists,
  sociologists, lawyers, et al. Appreciated
  multidisciplinary interdisciplinary approaches
  to water. Married Mary Frances in 1993
  (supportive!).
• Late 1990s Started focusing on WaSH (water,
  sanitation, and hygiene) issues in developing
  regions. Volunteer work with Lifewater and Living
  Water.
• 2001-2005 Started traveling with students to
  Honduras to work on gravity-flow water systems.
  Promoted hydrophilanthropy.
• 2002 Founded 501(c)(3) - Ann Campana Judge
  Foundation (www.acjfoundation.org) funds and
  undertakes water/sanitation projects in Central
  America
• 2006 Social Media Blogging, Tweeting,
  Facebook OSU arrival (headed Institute for Water
  Watersheds)

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Some Facts

• USA We tend to take our drinking water for
  granted. We spend around 10B/year on bottled
  water.
• USAs water infrastructure is aging. Over 100
  years old in some areas, especially East coast
  cities and towns.
• California 20 of its energy is used to move and
  treat water.
• Groundwater pumping has caused up to 30 feet of
  land subsidence in San Joaquin Valley, CA.
• Globally about 1 billion people lack access to
  safe drinking water and 2.4 billion do not have
  adequate sanitation.

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My T-shirt. got water? Job opening
Water-Carrier. Requirements must be able to
balance 45 pounds on your head while trekking
rocky dirt roads for miles. Hours up to 8
hours/day Wages0 Only women children need
apply!
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• Millennium Development Goals
• By 2015, reduce by 50 the number of people who
  do not have access to safe drinking water or
  sanitation
• Requires that each day until 2015, must provide
  safe drinking water to about 250,000 people and
  sanitary facilities to about 500,000 people
• Could do this for about 70B/year

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The Hydrologic Cycle (courtesy R. Glennon)
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Science Article (2/20/04)Global Warming in the
West
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Water Conflict The more things change, the
more they remain the same.(courtesy
duckboy.com)
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CLIMATEThe climate system is an angry
beast, and we are poking at it with sticks. --
Wallace Broecker, Columbia University
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Columbia River Basin Civilization exists by
geological consent, subject to change without
notice.-- Will Durant
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Columbia River Basin

• Red dots Corps
• of Engineers dams
• Yellow dots Other
• dams
• Population
• 7 million
• Average
• Annual Discharge
• 200 MAF/year or
• 7 800 cms
• (at mouth)
• Area 260 000 mi2

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Streamflow McKenzie River Basin (1948-52,
2001-05, Future Jefferson et al., 2008)
Peak flow has shifted from spring into winter
possible flood hazard
Decline begins earlier and summer flows are lower
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Colorado River BasinWesterners call what they
have established out here a civilization but it
would be more accurate to call it a
beachhead.-- Marc Reisner, Cadillac Desert
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Western Water Wise Words

• You are piling up a heritage of conflict and
  litigation over water rights for there is not
  sufficient water to supply the land.
• -- John Wesley Powell, 1893

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Colorado River Basin - Facts

• Area 245 000 mi2
• Mean discharge 14.5 MAF/year
• Main stem 1 450 mi in length
• Long-term (tree-ring data) mean discharge may be
  12 MAF/year
• Southern part of basin 12-year drought (in
  progress)
• More water for the arid West? You bet!

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CONFLICTWhiskys for drinking, waters for
fighting over. - attributed to Mark Twain
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The Golden Arches Theory of Conflict Prevention

• No two countries that have McDonalds have gone
  to war with each other since each got its
  McDonalds.
• -- Thomas L. Friedman

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International River Basins
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Number of Events by BAR Scale 1948-2008
Increasing Cooperation
Source De Stefano, L., P. Edwards, L. de Silva
and A. T. Wolf  2010. Tracking Cooperation and
Conflict in International Basins Historic and
Recent Trends. Water Policy. Vol 12 No 6 pp
871884. Adapted with permission of the authors.
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Pessimism?The optimist learns English.
The pessimist learns Chinese. The realist learns
Kalashnikov. -- Dr. A. Saghatelyan, Armenia
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Optimism?People are capable of doing horrible
things to each other. What they seem reluctant to
do is turn off each others water.-- Dr. Aaron
T. Wolf, OSU

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Path Forward - 1

• Provide safe drinking water sanitation to all
  (political will money)
• More data on water resources remote sensing,
  sensor development, computing power so we can
  assess what we have
• Soft path vs hard path approach
• (but we need infrastructure!)

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Path Forward - 2

• More focus on conflict management
  transformation
• Integrate land management and water management
• Water quality nitrogen cycle
• Energy-water-food-security
• nexus
• People and Ecosystems Count!

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Thank You!aquadoc_at_oregonstate.edu

• WaterWired blog http//www.waterwired.org
• Twitter http//twitter.com/waterwired
• (Will post on blog)
• Water is the Rubiks Cube of public policy.
  John Laird, California Resources Secretary
• We learn nothing from history except that we
  learn nothing from history. Cicero
• No policy without a calamity. Dutch saying
• (graph from http//www.xkcd.com/1007/)