A synthetic view of urban development: Hot topics

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A synthetic view of urban development Hot
topics Research methods???????????????????
???????????????? ????????????????? ??Email
ys_at_email.unc.edu
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Part I Measurements ???????????

• Identification of development pattern
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• Policy-relevant ?????
• Trend-revealing ????
• Function ????
• Residents Jobs ????
• Investments ????

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Internal Street Connectivity by Age of
Neighborhood
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SFR Lot Size by Age of Neighborhood
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Ratio of SFR Units within ¼-Mile Network Distance
of Commercial Use by Age of Neighborhood
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Residential
Firms
YEAR ESTABLISHED YEAR ESTABLISHED YEAR ESTABLISHED YEAR ESTABLISHED YEAR ESTABLISHED YEAR ESTABLISHED
1987 1990 1992 1995 2000 2005
Jefferson County (AL) 138 176 146 234 182 401
Cook County (IL) 329 374 367 394 278 814
Hennepin County (MN) 951 1,139 1,100 1,274 863 3,022
Alameda County (CA) 221 262 244 279 232 396
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Part II Causes Management?? ? ????

• Identification of development pattern
• Causes Management
• Market? ??
• Plan / Regulations? ??????
• Taxation? ??
• Other policies?

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??Market and Urban Expansion??????????

• U.S. cities
• Chinese cities

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Market and Urban Expansion

• Chinese cities
• U.S. cities

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1 Based on local subdivision ordinance
distinction between minor and major subdivisions.
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SURVIVAL ANALYSIS
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Independent Variables and Hypothesized Effect
Hazard Models
Time Time Time Time
Time period indicator Time-Variant Unclear Main effect of time
Land Market Considerations Land Market Considerations Land Market Considerations Land Market Considerations
Estimated land value Time-Invariant Positive effect Hedonic regression
Parcel aggregation indicator Time-Variant Positive effect Parcel change analysis
Demographics and Neighborhood Character Demographics and Neighborhood Character Demographics and Neighborhood Character Demographics and Neighborhood Character
Percent college graduates in block group Time-Invariant Positive effect Census 2000
Number of demolitions within quarter mile Time-Invariant Positive effect Local sources
Land use mix (entropy measure) Time-Invariant Negative effect Derived from spatial dataset
Accessibility Accessibility Accessibility Accessibility
Logged distance to I-485 (finished by 2001) Time-Invariant Positive effect Derived from spatial dataset
Distance to I-485 (when complete) Time-Invariant Positive effect Derived from spatial dataset
Logged distance to nearest downtown2 Time-Invariant Unclear Derived from spatial dataset
Policy Factors
Infrastructure availability proxy Time-Invariant Positive effect Ratio of street length to parcel size
Tax rate Time-Variant Negative effect Charlotte-Mecklenburg Planning
Non-residential neighborhood Time-Invariant Negative effect Neighborhood Development Dept.
Rezoning duration (average number of days) Time-Invariant Negative effect Local sources
Moratorium in place (proportion of year) Time-Variant Negative effect Local sources
Priming Effect Measure
Nearby events of opposite scale (or all events) in prior period Time-Variant Positive Parcel change analysis
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Regulations and Urban Development ?????

• Land use tools / Incentives ??????
• Developers are responsive ???
• Businesses are responsive ??

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Adequate Public Facilities Ordinance

• Adequate Public Facilities
• Urban Growth Boundary

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Impact Fees

• Impact Fees monetary charges imposed on new
  development to recoup or offset a proportionate
  share of public capital costs required to
  accommodate such development with necessary
  public facilities. (Nicholas and Nelson, 1988)
• Cannot legally be used for operation,
  maintenance, repair, alteration or replacement of
  capital facilities or just added to general
  revenue

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TIF

• Tax-Increment Financing (TIF) creates a
  redevelopment district, in which infrastructure
  improvements and/or project development are
  financed based upon the anticipated future
  increase in property values (the increment) and
  therefore, property taxes, that will result from
  the improvements.

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Inclusionary zoning

• Inclusionary zoning/housing encourages or
  requires developers of certain market rate
  residential developments to include within their
  developments or to construct offsite residential
  units made affordable to low and moderate income
  households.

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Regulations and Urban Development ?????

• Complications - backfire
• Uneven stringency may cause development to be
  inefficiently dispersed in the region
• Market has feedbacks

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Tax and Urban Development???????

• Property tax ?????????
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Tax Rates
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Variables

• The correlation between urban scale and the
  population (or employment) density gradient is
  -0.33 (or -0.31) ??????
• The correlation between two density gradients is
  0.97.

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Variables
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Results
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Implications

• A lower tax rate in suburbs induces more outward
  developments and thus, a more expansive and
  decentralized urban area ?????????????
• Urban decentralization / urban sprawl has
  multiple causes and solutions ??????? ?????

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Part III Consequences ????????????

• Housing market ????
• Travel, emissions and air quality ?????????
• Health implications ????
• Ecological and energy impacts ?????

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Travel, emissions and air quality
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Travel, emissions and air quality
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Travel, emissions and air quality Health
implications

• Next steps Self Selection
• Research Methods Natural experiments
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Advanced Modeling Systems??????Linking things
together

• Spatial development ??????
• Transportation ??
• Emissions ??
• Air quality ????
• Hydrological impacts ???

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Modeling approach
Run land use/transport forecasting model
Estimate emissions from on-road mobile sources
rail transit vehicles
Translate scenarios into land market
transportation system changes
Run air quality model

• Exogenous Factors
• Population ageing
• IPCCs scenarios
• Vehicle fleet mix
• Vehicle technology

Identify future scenarios
Develop multimodal travel models
Develop firm and residential location models
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Study area Charlotte ??

• Rapid population increase
• 22 from 1990 to 2000
• Even faster land consumption
• 1950 6.98 person/acre
• 2000 3.60 person/acre

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Economic flows generate transportation flows
Zone 256 supplies labor
Zone 258 demands labor
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??????????

• Baseline and smart growth

Source Metrolina COG
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Smart growth scenario

• SG scenario

Source Hadden
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Link-based emissions model ????

• Vehicle fuel and technology
• Facility type
• Ambient conditions
• Vehicle mean speed for link
• Vehicle class and age
• Vehicle fleet distribution
• Emission control standards and programs

Source Frey et al 2008
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Example of link-based tailpipe emission factors
Arterials, CY 2005
Source Frey et al 2008
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Regional emissions during weekday morning peak
hour
Total Transportation Network Emissions (tons)
Scenario HC CO NOx CO2
Present Baseline 0.854 34.50 4.63 1376
Present Alternative 0.788 29.75 4.48 1326
Future, No Growth Baseline 0.153 9.69 0.39 1200
Future, No Growth Alternative 0.148 8.36 0.37 1166
Future, Growth Baseline 0.244 14.49 0.60 1849
Future, Growth Alternative 0.237 12.57 0.56 1779
Source Frey et al 2008
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• New directions ???????

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Conclusions ??

• Empirically, through different methods, confirmed
  relevance of spatial development ??????????
• Comprehensiveness of urban management ??????????

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• Thank you very much!