Title: Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future MUSTAFA KIBAROGLU, Ph.D. ISP
1Turkish-Israeli Relations Past, Present and
FutureMUSTAFA KIBAROGLU, Ph.D.ISP MTA
FellowBelfer Center for Science and
International AffairsJohn F. Kennedy School of
GovernmentHARVARD UNIVERSITY
- BCSIA Library
- December 2, 2004
2Turkish-Israeli Relations Past, Present and
Future
-
- The Past 500 years of historical relations
(1492 1992) - The Present Strategic relations since 1992
(win-win) - The Future Crossroads ahead? (win-win or
loose-loose) -
3Turkish-Israeli Relations Past, Present and
Future
- ...Ottomans embraced the persecuted Jews of
Spain in 1492 - ...Jews have been loyal to the Ottoman Sultan
- ...Jews occupied high ranks in the Ottoman
administration - ...Jews supported Turkeys War of Liberation in
1919-1922 - ...200 000 Jews had minority status in Turkey
after Lausanne - ...Most Jews gone to Israel but some 25 000
remain in Turkey
4Turkish-Israeli Relations Past, Present and
Future
- ...Turkey recognized the State of Israel in 1949
- ...Ben Gurion sought close relations with Adnan
Menderes - ...Turkish domestic politics and religion
obstructed relations - ...NATO membership limited Turkeys interest in
M. East - ...Yom Kippur War and OPEC crisis deteriorated
relations - ...Coup in Turkey Jerusalem Law Intifada
worsened
5Turkish-Israeli Relations Past, Present and
Future
- ...Gulf crisis demise of USSR made Turkey turn
to M. East - ...Peace Processes lifted Arabs tacit embargo
on Turkey - ...Redefinition of the relations as alliance
axis entente - ...Common concerns rogue states military
capabilities - ...Military cooperation agreement (1996) odd
men out - ...Turkey becomes virtual strategic depth of
Israel
6Turkish-Israeli Relations Past, Present and
Future
7Turkish-Israeli Relations Past, Present and
Future
- ...Potentially clashing interests over northern
Iraq - ...Turks concerns with an independent Kurdish
state in Iraq - ...Israelis concerns with Islamic Turkish
government(s) - ...Turks misperceptions about Jewish influence
in US politics - ...Bitter political statements by Turkish
statesmen -
- ...Israelis may prefer relying on Kurds rather
than Turks
8Turkish-Israeli Relations Past, Present and
Future
9Turkish-Israeli Relations Past, Present and
Future
- ...win-win if confidence and trust can be
restored - ...loose-loose if misperceptions
miscalculation persist - ...War against terror cannot be won with nukes
or shields - ...Intelligence information gathering is
essential - ...Turkeys commonalities with M. East C. Asia
are crucial -
- ...Strategic wisdom must prevail on both sides
or both loose
10Turkish-Israeli Relations Past, Present and
FutureMUSTAFA KIBAROGLU, Ph.D.ISP MTA
FellowBelfer Center for Science and
International AffairsJohn F. Kennedy School of
GovernmentHARVARD UNIVERSITY
- BCSIA Library
- December 2, 2004