6GEO3 Unit 3 Contested Planet Energy Security

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6GEO3 Unit 3 Contested Planet Energy Security
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What is this topic about?

• Energy is fundamental to our lives, and we often
  take it for granted
• This topic explores our energy supply, and asks
  challenging questions about it
• Can we continue to rely on fossil fuels, or do we
  need a radical switch in energy sources?
• Energy is very closely linked to climate change
  as fossil fuels (our main energy source) are the
  main source of greenhouse gas emissions.

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CONTENTS

• Energy supply, demand and security
• The impacts of energy insecurity
• Energy security and the future

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1. Energy supply, demand and security
There are a wide range of energy resources, with different security of supply and environmental issues There are a wide range of energy resources, with different security of supply and environmental issues There are a wide range of energy resources, with different security of supply and environmental issues
Non-renewable Renewable Recyclable
A finite stock of resources, which will run out A flow of resources, which is infinite in human terms Can be used repeatedly, if managed carefully
Coal, oil, gas (plus oil shale, tar sands, lignite etc.) Wind, solar, hydroelectric, wave, tidal, geothermal Biomass, nuclear (with reprocessing of fuel)
Significant environmental impacts during extraction (oil wells, opencast mines) Greenhouse gas emissions during use, and acidic emissions May require large areas (solar arrays, wind farms) for operation. NIMBY issues. Limited / no greenhouse emissions. Large land area needed for biomass. Largely unresolved issues of storing high level radioactive waste.
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Life cycle analysis

• Life cycle analysis accounts for
• C02 emissions at all stages
• of the energy supply chain, not simply during use
  ?

• Comparing the environmental impact of different
  energy sources is a challenge
• Life cycle greenhouse emissions is one approach
• Even this does not account for NIMBY issues (e.g.
  windfarms), or the loss of ecosystems and
  biodiversity linked to extraction of fossil fuels
• Some sources, such as nuclear and biomass are
  highly controversial and there is intense debate
  over their green credentials.

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Access to energy

• Direct access to fossil fuel reserves is a
  coincidence of geological history and
  international boundaries.
• Some countries find themselves with more fossil
  fuel sources than their needs
• Others have none
• Reserves run down over time, as is the gas with
  the UKs once abundant North Sea oil and gas
• Remaining oil and gas will increasingly
  concentrate in the Middle East over the next 30
  years.

Top 15 countries by oil, gas and coal reserves in
2008
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Access to renewables

• Most renewable energy is constrained by physical
  geography, and especially climate
• This means its availability is place specific
• The UK has significant renewable potential,
  especially wind, although it is a small country
  with limited land area most HEP sites are
  already used.
• Many renewables are intermittent energy sources,
  so energy must be stored (very costly and
  technically difficult) or backed up by another
  source

UK renewable potential
Source Physical limitations
Wind Requires wind speeds of 8-25 mph
Solar PV Works best in areas of over 6 kwh per sq. metre per day
Biomass Requires large land area for feedstock
HEP Suitable valleys i.e. long, deep and relatively narrow, and predictable water supply
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Access to energy

• Which energy sources are used is not simply a
  matter of which fossil fuels or renewable forms
  are available in a country
• Other factors influence choice of energy sources
• Cost is critical, as people are sensitive to
  energy sources
• Nuclear power station construction ground to a
  standstill after the 1986 Chernobyl accident.

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Energy poverty

• Lack of access to energy resources is common in
  the developing world
• Reliance of fuel wood, farm waste and dung is
  high and fossil fuel consumption low
• Up to 40 of the worlds population rely on these
  sources as their primary cooking and heating fuel
• Close to 2 billion people have no access to
  electricity
• Access to cheap, reliable energy is strongly
  related to development as so much of modern
  life and industry depends on it.

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Demand

• Global demand for energy has risen dramatically,
  especially since the 1960s
• Demand doubled between 1960 and 1980
• Growth in demand has been slower since 1980, but
  is projected to rise by up to 60 between 2002
  and 2030 and continue upward.
• The BRIC countries, as well as other large
  developing nations (Mexico, Indonesia) have
  contributed to much to recent increases in demand
  and are likely to do so in the future.
• Further industrialisation inevitably brings
  demands for cars and consumer goods, all of which
  need power.

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Security

• Energy security depends on a number of factors
  (see table)
• Countries with a diverse energy mix are less at
  risk than those relying on 1 or 2 sources
• Renewable potential could be used to offset
  declining fossil fuel reserves or supply
  interruptions
• Reliance on long distance international trade in
  fossil fuels may be risky
• Demand and dependency are important too, as it is
  difficult to replace a large amount of oil with
  another energy source for instance

Domestic fossil fuel reserves Countries like Italy and Japan have few of their own resources Domestic renewable potential Small, crowded nations like Singapore and South Korea lack renewable potential
Domestic energy mix France relies heavily on nuclear power, and the UK on gas. Import pathway risk The UK imports gas from Russia and Qatar, both long distance pathways.
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2. The impacts of energy insecurity

• Fossil fuel supply regions are poorly matched
  with areas of largest demand
• This is especially true for oil and gas
• Energy must flow along international pathways
  from producer to consumer
• These are either pipelines (oil and gas), bulk
  carriers (coal, uranium), LNG tankers (gas) or
  oil tankers. Electricity is also exported /
  imported.
• Pathways could be disrupted, increasing energy
  insecurity.

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Risks of disruption

• Gas pipeline disruption has already occurred, as
  disputes between Russia and Ukraine disrupted
  European gas supplies in 2006 and 2009
• Russia holds 25 of world gas reserves, the
  Middle East 40 (and 56 of oil)
• Disruption to narrow ocean choke points (see map)
  could seriously affect the flow of oil
• Countries close to some choke points are unstable
  (Iran, Somalia, Yemen)

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Risks of disruption

• There are real risks if oil and gas supplies are
  disrupted.
• Any potential disruption is headline news
• So dependent are we on cheap, uninterrupted
  energy supplies that disruption could lead to
• Soaring energy costs and rising energy poverty
• Pressure on politicians to act possibly
  rationing energy
• Civil disruption
• Rising costs for industry, job losses and
  recession
• Unsound decisions (economically and
  environmentally) to rapidly develop alternative
  sources
• Diplomatic conflict

UK energy disruption UK energy disruption
Oct 1973 Oil crisis petrol rationing
Sept 2000 UK wide fuel protests over price and tax
Aug 2005 Further UK protests Hurricane Katrina pushes oil prices higher
Aug 2008 Oil at 147 a barrel
Jan 2010 National Grid gas balancing alerts are headline news gas supply from Norway drops on technical problems
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Supply new sources

• As oil prices remain high, and fears of peak oil
  and gas increase the search is on for new
  sources

Example Source Technical challenge Environmental impacts
Canadian (Athabasca) tar sands Bitumen combined with sand / rock under boreal forests close to surface MODERATE Strip mining or extraction by steam gas is used to heat the sands and extract oil. HIGH Energy intensive extraction and destruction of ecosystems
Arctic oil Conventional oil in fragile wilderness region, both on and offshore LOW Conventional drilling and extraction Arctic oil has been taken from Prudhoe Bay for decades. MODERATE Fragile environment but production has relatively small footprint
West of Shetland, Foinaven field Conventional oil in deep ocean water HIGH Production began in 1997, but using floating rigs LOW Low risk of spills and limited impact on sea bed
USA (Green River) oil shale Bitumen encased in solid rock MODERATE Opencast mining, then can be directly burnt or heated to drive off oil. HIGH Large areas mined, scarring landscape and energy intensive production
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Viable alternatives?

• The chart below shows the estimates oil price
  required for each energy resource to be
  competitive with oil and gas without any form of
  State support or subsidy

Source the FT 2009
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Players

• The diagram below summarises the role of some key
  players in the energy supply

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Big oil TNCs and OPEC

• Supermajor and other oil and gas TNCs control
  most oil and gas extraction, refining and
  distribution.
• State owned oil companies own / control access to
  95 of world oil and gas reserves
• OPEC is effectively a price control cartel, with
  considerable power.

Supermajor TNCs Supermajor TNCs State owned oil giants State owned oil giants
Total Fr Saudi Aramco Saudi Arabia
BP UK Gazprom Russia
Shell UK/Nl CNPC China
Chevron USA Petrobras Brazil
ExxonMobil USA NOIC Iran
ConocoPhilips USA PDVSA Venezuela
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3. Energy security and the future

• There are several key uncertainties relating to
  energy futures
• Future demand is uncertain it partly depends on
  future population and economic growth
• The lifespan of fossil fuel reserves, especially
  oil, is unknown
• The extent to which we exploit unconventional oil
  (see image)
• The extent and timing of switching from fossil
  fuel to renewables is uncertain.
• Peak oil and gas are important after peak
  production prices can only rise.

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The nuclear option?

• Opinion is divided over whether nuclear power is
  the answer
• It provides about 15 of the worlds electricity,
  but only 2 of all energy needs
• There are over 400 reactors in 30 countries, but
  few currently being built

Advantages Disadvantages
Fuel sources (see map) Low life cycle carbon emissions. Constant power output Takes up little space . Large power output per plant Public distrust. High initial cost. Long build times. High level waste disposal. Fears of terrorism. Nuclear proliferation. Technically challenging
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Biofuels?

• Biofuels have the advantage of being flexible
  liquids
• As such they can replace diesel (biodiesel) and
  petrol (bio-ethanol)
• However, they require food crops as feedstocks
  (sugar cane, maize etc)
• This means land that could be used for food.
• In 2007-08 explosive growth of biofuel crop area
  was blamed for pushing up global food prices
• Biofuels are not carbon neutral, because of the
  energy used in farming, transport and refining.

Future biofuels might not use food crops 1st
generation food crops 2nd generation crop
wastes 3rd generation algae
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Geopolitics

• There are a number of sources of tension, both
  present and future, related to energy security
  and the threat of insecurity

Scenario Explanation Consequences
Oil hits 100 Sustained oil price of over 100 per barrel, for several years. Prolonged economic recession and rising fuel poverty in OECD countries
Middle East meltdown Tensions in the Gulf escalate into war between Muslim factions possibly involving Iran, Iraq, Israel, Syria, Turkey and others. Interruption of oil and gas flows rising prices tension between China and USA to secure oil supply
The nuclear option Wholesale shifting towards nuclear to replace fossil fuels, leads to global spread of nuclear power and technology Power stations become soft targets for terrorism enriched uranium and depleted plutonium get into the wrong hands.
Energy superpowers The Gulf States hold 60 of oil reserves and Russia/Qatar/ Iran 60 of gas the world has not shifted to renewables. Energy superpowers begin to name their price and take care of their friends major geopolitical shifts
Arctic attack Canada, Russia, USA and EU begin to exploit the Arctic for oil and gas, but without clear delineation of territorial areas. A war or words over who has the right to exploit what, quickly becomes a new cold war possibly a hot one
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Future challenges

• What are our energy challenges in 2010? There are
  some that are obvious
• Reduce dependency on fossil fuels to increase
  energy security
• Increase renewable energy use as fossil fuels
  become more expensive / peak
• Reduce greenhouse gas emissions
• Increase access to energy in developing nations

Mix it up Wind, solar and others can be used to diversify energy sources. This would increase security, but could also reduce greenhouse emissions. Technology for all Aid could be used to help developing nations grow their renewable sectors Intermediate technology is key to this. They need energy, but without greenhouse emissions.
Tax it down Green taxes i.e. taxing fossil fuel use, could encourage efficiency Greenhouse emissions would fall as efficiency rises The dirtiest fuels could be taxed the most. Self generation Homes can generate renewable energy using ground source heat pumps, micro-wind and solar PV / thermal This would diversify the energy mix, reduce emissions and increase self-reliance.