Crucial Factors to Bioenergy Expansion in Rural China

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Crucial Factors to Bioenergy Expansion in Rural
China
----The 4th East Asian Symposium on Environmental
and Natural Resource Economics

• Wei Xun, Ma Zhong
• Renmin University of China
• 3rd, Mar, 2009

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Contents
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1. Introduction

• Resource extent Consumption
• Technology
• Policies Regulations

• Resource extent
• 0.7 billion of crop straw produced
• 0.1 billion of agricultural products processing
  waste.
• Consumption
• total production of methane 10.17 billion cu. m
• crop straw consumption 159.79 million tce
• firewood consumption 90.91 million tce

• technology for rural household biogas(??????)
  and biogas project on husbandry farms(???????) is
  mature with fairly huge market potential
• technology of biomass solid fuel(?????????),
  straw gasification(??????), bio-ethanol(??????)
  and biodiesel(????) has been becoming viable, and
  in experiment and demonstration stage
• cellulose degradation for ethanol(?????????)
  production is still under technical research.

• Base Renewable Energy Law
• Goal and path Medium and Long-term Development
  Plan of Renewable Energy
• Funding mechanism Notification on Renewable
  Energy Price Subsidies and Quota Trading Program
• Administrative mechanism Renewable Energy
  Industry Development Guidance List
• Supervising mechanism Regulations on Renewable
  Energy Power Generation

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2. Methodology Framework

• Index Preselect ion
• Certain index are set as potential factors to
  bioenergy expansion based on quantity of document
  and spot investigation.
• Cluster analysis
• According to the data of 20 province of China, by
  statistical means of cluster analysis, the 20
  cases are classified and compared to summarize
  the character of each class.
• The data includes resource extent, consumption
  and cost of both tradition and biomass energy.
• Linear regression analysis
• Analysis the contribution of relative factors to
  the bioenergy expansion .
• As a result, the crucial factors to bioenergy
  expansion are selected, which are the regressive
  parameters having statistical significant.

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2. Methodology Framework
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3. Factors selection statistical analysis
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3.1 Review of influencing factors (1)

• Anders(1998) Integration with other economic
  activity, scale effects on bioenergy markets,
  competition in bioenergy markets, competition
  with other business, national policy, local
  policy and local opinion.
• Christine(1998) There are some non-technical
  aspects related to the development of bioenergy
  including the financial challenges to carry out a
  successful project, the problems which could
  arise due to legal and administrative reasons and
  affect the construction and operation of a
  biomass fired plant, and the organizational and
  perception challenges.

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3.1 Review of influencing factors (2)

• Hillring(1998) thought policy was a crucial
  factors to the development of bioenergy industry,
  since it has huge influence on the energy
  consumption, industry structure and energy
  products.
• Fan Jingchun(2006) Set the different type and
  degree incentive policy scenario. And the policy
  effect on the electricity price of biomass
  generated power was analyzed.
• McCormick(2007) Economic condition, know-how and
  institutional capacity, and supply chain
  co-ordination.
• Hong Hao(2008) The price of fossil fuel, energy
  strategy and national supportive policy.

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3.2 Identification of the evaluating index

• Factors
• The consumption, resource extent, cost or price
  of both biomass and traditional energy, and
  per-capita income in rural area.
• Analysis indexes
• The consumption and resources extent of straw
  and firewood, the consumption and basic reserves
  of coal, the purchasing price of the straw, the
  price of anthracite with calorific value as 6500
  Cal/kilo in the area of consumption, per-capita
  income .

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The energy and economic situation of 20
provinces (cities)
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3.3 Statistical analysis
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3.3.1 Cluster Analysis

• 20 cases were classified into 3 group

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3.3.2 Regression Analysis

• Biocons0.462 tracons0.483biores-0.313trares
  0.613biocost 0.135traprice- 0.81income

The equation can achieve a good fitting effect.
The variable traditional energy price and income
are not significant
The resource extent and cost of bioenergy has
positive relations, while the variable
traditional energy reserve has negative
relations with bioenergy implementation.
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4. Conclusions policy implications
Policy Implication
Conclusion
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4. Conclusions policy implications
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There is a close relationship between the level
of bioenergy development and local bioenergy
resource extent.
The expansion of bioenergy in rural China has a
barrier of cost and price, which can be moved by
the supportive energy strategy and subsidy policy.
With the expansion of bionergy, the straw becomes
valuable production raw material with competitive
use instead of agricultural waste. Thus
specialized straw-collection companies are
emerging, resulting in the rising of purchasing
price of the straw.
In the long run, the price of traditional energy,
especially that of the petroleum, has a close
relationship with bioenergy expansion.
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4.2 Policy implications
Carry out the resources inventory work
Perfect the policy system and strengthen the
subsidies
Develop the bioenergy industry with local
condition
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4.2 Policy implications
Carry out the resources inventory work
Perfect the policy system and strengthen the
subsidies
Develop the bioenergy industry with local
condition
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4.2 Policy implications
Carry out the resources inventory work
Perfect the policy system and strengthen the
subsidies
Develop the bioenergy Industry with local
condition
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Thank You !