WILL THE PRESENT-DAY SCIENTIFIC APPROACHES ENABLE TO FORECAST NATURAL DISASTERS? Trahel Vardanian Yerevan State University, Armenia

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WILL THE PRESENT-DAY SCIENTIFIC APPROACHES
ENABLE TO FORECAST NATURAL DISASTERS?Trahel
VardanianYerevan State University, Armenia
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In the age of present-day scientific and
technical achievements, mans safety does not
seem to be ensured. In particular, it refers to
the process of forecasting and managing natural
phenomena.
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• The end of XX century and the beginning of XXI
  century are distinguished by the abrupt growth of
  natural phenomena. In this respect, in the recent
  decades NATO and UNO have developed a number of
  projects and activities, aimed at the possible
  forecasting of natural phenomena, danger
  alleviation, as well as removal of consequences.

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Today, man is unable to resist to numerous
natural disasters (earthquakes, floods and so
on), of which he can become a victim any time.
Science has developed thousands of mathematical
models of forecasting natural disasters, which,
however, cannot

• entirely explain the cause-and-effect
  relations of phenomena,
• predict these phenomena,
• enable to withstand the expected hazards.

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• The reason is that natural phenomena are
• multi-factoral,
• they have a complex mechanism, which is like a
  higher live organism,
• they cannot be managed by any science.

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• Thus, mathematics cannot forecast these phenomena
  with its dead models, which can be fatal for
  man. Yet, mathematics has managed to make
  phenomena prediction rigid and bring them to
  forecasting field, and, by this, to assist to
  arrive at some solution of this issue.

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• Now we shall try to create a mathematical
  schematic model for forecasting some natural
  phenomenon, as well as analyse its possibilities
  and setbacks.

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Natural disasters and forming them factors are
diverse. However, we will introduce the ones
which are

• formed in river basins
• conditioned by water flow
• dangerous for society and
• environment
• They are overflows.

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According to their origin, they can be

• downpour
• flood (conditioned by snowmelt and ice melt)
• wind-induced surge
• ice-jam and ice-dam
• dammed and cut-off

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Based on the international researches on the
overflows, it became clear that the overflows
occupy

• the first place by the number of emergence of
  natural disasters (about 40 of all the
  disasters)
• the second-third place by the number of casualty
• the first-third place by the degree of economic
  damage (billions of dollars).

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In river basins, according to the degree of
danger the overflows may be

• weak
• average
• strong
• disastrous

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• The strong and disastrous overflows emerge under
  the influence of two or more factors (for
  instance, snowmelt rainfall, downpour dam
  destruction, etc.).
• The downpour is the most widespread type of
  overflow. It can take place everywhere (except
  for Arctic and Antarctic), even in desert and
  semi-desert regions.
• Rain overflows are rather dangerous in
  mountainous dry, extreme continental climate
  regions. They considerably raise the level of
  river water.

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The causes of the emergence of this type of
overflows are

• short-term and intense rains (the annual portion
  of water from the rainfall may pour into river
  basins in single minutes)
• the geological structure of rock basin (90 of
  precipitation fallen on impermeable rocks form a
  flow)
• basin size
• the declivity of basin slopes
• the extent of vegetation cover of the basin
• the extent of basin dissection
• the anthropogenic factor
• others

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• Downpour overflows usually occupy small drainage
  areas (up to 1000 km2) and are particularly
  dangerous for towns and rural areas.
• The threat is doubled due to the increase of the
  quantity of the hard sediment in water and
  mudflow emergence.

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• Today, having a powerful scientific- technical
  potential and means, in particular, aerial space
  researches, photographing surveys, as well as
  geo-information system (GIS), man is able not
  only to forecast but also to prevent natural
  disasters.

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All the factors which can cause flood formation
and which we had discussed earlier can be
classified into the following groups

• climatic (C)
• physical (Ph)
• biological (B)
• geological (G)
• chemical (Ch)
• anthropogenic (A) and others.

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• These groups of factors are connected to one
  another multifunctional mathematical links, i.e.,
  they are to have numeric ranges, which are not
  always present or reliable.

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Besides, if we establish a link between a natural
disaster, in this case, flood (F) and influencing
it factorsThen, at the first sight it seems
as if the presence of many factors will reveal
the essence of the phenomenon, will raise the
degree of reliability of forecasting this
disaster.

• Ff (C Ph B G Ch A and others)

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That is so, the more factors are observed, the
better the revelation will be. That is
theoretically true.

• However, in practice, when the link between these
  factors is expressed in mathematical terms, then
  the correlation coefficient of this link becomes
  smaller, which means decrease of the degree of
  reliability. It means, that the language of
  mathematics is rigid.

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• Conclusions
• It is necessary to form a synthesized science
  (Geography is an example of such science), which
  would comprise all cause-and-effect relations
  contributing to forecasting of phenomena, and,
  what is most important, would enliven the rigid
  mathematical models used in studying these
  phenomena.

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It is important to build a geo-physical
multi-factor mathematical live model able to
operate. The model must have the following
features

• plasticity
• flexibility
• pulsation
• reliability
• interrelation of links and feedback
• cohesion with other models.
• Solely in case of having these features the model
  will become live.

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The model must be nourished with the following
information sources

• manned satellites (geo-physical, climatic data
  as well as maps and photographs)
• geo-information stationary observation stations
  located on the Earth (data on flow-forming and
  other factors and others)

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The model must work by means of

• data permanently received in the geo-information
  system
• differential series obtained from the data and
  multi-factor links formed between them

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Live model
X
Over flow
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• The model must be very sensitive-to be able to
  fix and analyze any slightest change of any
  factor and possible consequences.
• The model must be able to define the factor or
  factors which for the given time or space may be
  disastrous.
• This kind of models can be built not only for
  downpour overflows but also for any natural
  disaster (even for earthquakes), with
  consideration of its peculiarities.

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These models can give the opportunity to forecast
disasters and undertake necessary means for their
prevention.

• Any region must have its characteristic model,
  each of which can be different, if not divergent.

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Thank you for attention

• Contact address
• Department of Physical Geography,
• Yerevan State University,1, Alek Manoukian
  Street, Yerevan,
• 375025, Republic of Armenia
• Fax [phone]
• Email tvardanian_at_ysu.am