GLOBAL WARMING: THE ECOLOGICAL TIMEBOMB'S TICKING IS INCREASING

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GLOBAL WARMING THE ECOLOGICAL TIME-BOMB'S
TICKING IS INCREASING

• Gurmit Singh
• CETDEM Exec. Dir.
• Cetdem_at_po.jaring.my

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What is climate?

• Climate is average weather over a period of time
• Weather is atmospheric conditions over a location
• Its usually described in temperature, humidity,
  rainfall, wind speed direction, pressure, solar
  radiation
• Weather changes Why?

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What causes Weather ?

• Differential heating of the earths surface
• Solar radiation Main Driving Force
• Global Temperature Balance between Incoming and
  Outgoing Radiation
• As earth adjusts to differential heating, air
  moves causing weather over a location

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Why does climate vary naturally?

• Solar Activity
• Variation in Earths Orbit
• Volcanic Eruptions
• Natural Internal Factors
• Greenhouse Gases
• Water Vapour
• CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs

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Global warming affects ALL

• No human or ecosystem is immune
• We ALL contribute in many ways as will be shown
  later
• ALL are starting to pay the costs which will RISE
  over time
• Some are MORE culpable should ACT now
• Within ASEAN, Malaysia is the 3rd Highest per
  capita emission- after Brunei Singapore!

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POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
Health
Climate Changes
Agriculture
Temperature
Forests
Water Resources and Aquatic Life
Precipitation
Coastal Areas
Sea Level Rise
Species and Natural Areas
Source Anne Grambsch (1998)
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Human Systems

• Sensitive Systems
• Water resources
• Agriculture, forestry, fisheries
• Human settlements
• Industry, energy, financial services

• Vulnerabilities
• Food and water security
• Incomes and livelihoods
• Human health
• Infrastructure

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Types of Changes Seen

• Animals and Plants
• Range shifts (latitudinal or altitudinal)
• Abundance changes
• Change in growing season length
• Earlier flowering emergence of insects
  migration and egg-laying in birds
• Morphology shifts (e.g. body egg sizes)

• Hydrology and Glaciers
• Glacier shrinkage
• Permafrost thawing
• Later freeze earlier break up of river and lake
  ice

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• Some Evidence
• Global mean temperature increased 0.60 between
  1861 and 2000
• Sea level increased 10 20 cm between 1900 and
  2000
• Observed changes in physical, ecological and
  socio-economic systems
• Non-polar glacier retreat
• Reduction in Artic sea ice extent and thickness
  in summer
• Increased incidence of coral bleaching
• Increased economic losses due to extreme weather
  events

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Reasons for concern Risks to Unique and
Threatened Systems Risks from Extreme Climate
Events Distribution of Impacts Aggregate
Impacts Risks from Future Large-Scale
Discontinuities

• For small amounts of climate change, benefits are
  projected for some sectors and regions, although
  the majority of people are likely to be adversely
  affected

• For larger amounts of change, projected benefits
  diminish, projected damages increase, and risks
  associated with large scale discontinuities
  become more important

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• The future
• Climate change is here to stay
• For short term, reducing the uncertainties is the
  primary concern.
• It has significant impacts on eco-system,
  socio-economic, sustainable development and
  national growth
• Concerted efforts are needed to address climate
  change issues
• Global efforts such as Convention on Climate
  Change, Kyoto Protocol are some preliminary
  initiatives
• More needs to be done

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GLOBAL ATTEMPTS to curb 1979 First World Climate
Conference
1985 IPCC First Assessment Report
1990 Second World Climate Conference
- UNGA Resolution for Earth Summit and
negotiation for Conventions on climate change and
biological diversity
1991 Negotiations began
1992 Earth Summit in Rio endorsed UN FCCC and CBD
1994 Malaysia Became Party
1995 First Conference of Parties in Berlin
1997 Adoption of Kyoto Protocol
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Objectives of Framework Convention on Climate
Change
To achieve stabilisation of greenhouse gas
concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
interference with climate system to allow
ecosystems to adapt naturally, to ensure food
production is not threatened and to enable
sustainable development
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CLIMATE CHANGE is a global threat but submerged
in POLITICS

• UNFCCC is an intergovernmental agreement- hence
  politics is unavoidable
• But more so since there is a whole range of
  vested interests at stake
• Those who believe they will suffer adversely CC
  impacts are pitted against those who are
  considered historically the largest GHG emitters
• There is a marked North-South divide - OECD vs.
  non-OECD, Annex I vs. non-Annex I
• Even G77 is divided between OPEC rest, AOSIS vs.
  China, India Brazil

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THE POLITICAL STAKES

• Who will dominate who will lose out - very
  often based on perceptions rather than reality
• The strong have managed to get their way - very
  often undermining equity e.g. USA dictating the
  Convention, the Protocol and now even rejecting
  it- EU Japan have played 2nd 3rd fiddle
• Seems to be a secret strategy to delay
  implementing actual emission reductions UNTIL
  those from China, India Brazil zoom up - then
  to demand these 3 also must reduce - their
  refusal will be used as an excuse for current
  OECD members not to act - the world can fry!

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Outlook for the future
Annual CO2 emissions in gigatons (from 2010
linear growth estimation)
40
35
30
global
25
20
developed countries
15
10
developing countries
5
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
Data source IEA, World Energy Outlook 2000
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Outlook for the future
Cumulative CO2 emissions in gigatons (from 2010
linear growth estimation)
6000.0
5000.0
global
4000.0
3000.0
developed countries
2000.0
1000.0
developing countries
0.0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Data source IEA, World Energy Outlook 2000
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QUESTIONS to ponder on

• Why is the USA ignoring CC?
• What have the OECD nations done to reduce GHG
  emissions?
• Can the world avoid a 2 degree rise in temp
  within the century?

• How much longer can we play the BLAME GAME?
• Can todays youth rise above self-interest?
• What can be done to move from a carbon to a
  hydrogen economy?

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NOTHING COMES EASY

• If we want to help curb global warming, we just
  cannot keep pointing fingers
• We must ACT - at our personal level, at our jobs,
  within our nation, globally
• Sustainable development sustainability will
  NOT occur if global warming worsens esp.
  exceeding 2 degree C rise
• Point out the inequities stop being
  HYPOCRITICAL especially among the multinationals
  the rich!

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THE G8 FAILED TO DELIVER

• Bush was strong enough to prevent meaningful
  positions being developed
• All that seems to come out is a meeting with some
  large developing nations in Nov. to get them to
  curb emissions!
• Kyoto Protocol is being marginalised, weak as it
  already is!
• Temperatures are steadily rising weather
  extremes worsening!!!