Carlota Perez Tallinn University of Technology, CFAP, Cambridge University and SPRU, University of S

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TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS,PARADIGM SHIFTSAND
SOCIAL GOALS
Carlota PerezTallinn University of Technology,
CFAP, Cambridge University and SPRU, University
of Sussex Marie Jahoda Annual Lecture SPRU,
University of Sussex, October 2007
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Thank you all for coming and thanks to SPRU and
the university for inviting me to give the Marie
Jahoda lecture this year. It is a great honour It
is also a wonderful opportunity to continue a
conversation that I began with Marie in the
1980s. Those were the years of the dismantling
of a whole world order. On the socio-political
front we witnessed the attack on the welfare
state, the elimination of the protection barriers
for the industries of the developing world, the
weakening of the labour movement everywhere and
the collapse of the Soviet system. While on the
techno-economic front we saw stagflation, the
decline of many traditional industries and the
rise of the Information Revolution. It was
certainly a privilege to watch and discuss the
unfolding of those complex events in the light of
her wisdom. (The more she lost her sight, the
more profound were her insights into the human
condition). The times are now very different but
equally complex. We live in a polarised world
where the rich get richer and the poor poorer and
where resentment drives both terrorism and
desperate migrations.
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DOES TECHNOLOGY PLAY ANY ROLE IN ALL THIS? Let me
continue that conversation with you Today I
would like to share with you a way of looking at
the relationship between technology and
society. Most of us would agree that they shape
each other. How exactly that shaping occurs needs
to be analysed from an interdisciplinary
perspective. It is what Chris Freeman has taught
us all at SPRU.
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A process of mutual shaping in a constantly
changing context
TECHNOLOGY
SOCIETY
How exactly that shaping occurs is a systemic
phenomenon to be analysed from an
interdisciplinary perspective
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LONG-TERM ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTIS
USUALLY SEEN ASTHE CONTINUOUS ADVANCE OF
TECHNOLOGY
Technological progress
Time
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FIVE TECHNOLOGICAL REVOLUTIONS IN 230 YEARS
Each takes 40-60 years to spread across the world
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WHY CALL THEM REVOLUTIONS?
Each is a set of major interrelated innovations
in products, process technologies and
infrastructures an explosion of new dynamic
industries
But, new industries, even major ones, are not
enough! The term revolution is warranted
because of their all-pervasive effect. Each one
also provides a powerful set of generic
technologiesand widely applicable organisational
principlesforming a model of best business
practice
A NEW TECHNO-ECONOMIC PARADIGM capable of
rejuvenating the existing industriesand
providing a quantum jump in potential
productivity for all
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WHAT IS A TECHNO-ECONOMIC PARADIGM SHIFT?
It is the appearanceof an enormous new wealth
creating potential
Involving A CHANGE IN THE DIRECTION OF
CHANGEacross all industries
and gradually across society
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A FAR REACHING TRANSFORMATION
EACH PARADIGM
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TECHNOLOGICAL DETERMINISM?
YES! but in a mild form
Major technical changes set the stage for the
interaction of social forces
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EACH PARADIGM DEFINES THE WIDE RANGE OF THE VIABLE
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The wide range of the viable THE MODELS OF
GROWTH ESTABLISHED UNDER THE PREVIOUS (MASS
PRODUCTION) PARADIGM
FOUR PROFOUNDLY DIFFERENT SYSTEMS EACH WITH MANY
VARIANTS All compatible with the centralising
and homogenising principles of the mass
production (and mass consumption) paradigm
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Social progress (however ideologically
defined)may be attained in many ways
From the action of enlightened despots, through
violent or peaceful social struggle, to
democratic decisions
Whichever the means, the likelihood of
successis much greaterwhen pushing in a
viable direction
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The modern Welfare State was fully
establishedin the Western democracies after
WWII(30 years after mass production began)
Roosevelts New Deal attempts in the 1930swere
fiercely resisted as communism The experience
of the war created conditions for a
positive-sum game in each national-state Mass
production and mass consumptionwith social
security for allthrough the centralised
redistributive government
CAN THE ICT PARADIGM DELIVER ON THE SAME GOALS ?
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Three directions of the current paradigm shift
Mass production
ICT- Flexible production
Each paradigm opens different new routes for
making profitsas well as for achieving socially
desirable goals
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STYLISED FEATURES OF THE CURRENT PARADIGM SHIFT
patterns of consumption
HYPER SEGMENTED MARKETS From commoditised,
through mass customised, to very specialised
from global, through national, to glocal and
local markets
MULTIPLE LIFESTYLES WITH DIVERSIFIED PATTERNS
OF CONSUMPTION on a common ICT platform Variety
of work situations and uneven income streams
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STYLISED FEATURES OF THE CURRENT PARADIGM SHIFT
patterns of consumption
Educational recycling moving up or across
networks self-employment entrepreneurship
Access to DIFFERENT SETS of elements providing
rising QUALITY and equivalent satisfaction.
Hour glass income diversity (and exclusion)
rather than accordion variety within middle
income Aggressive confrontations fragmentation
Peaceful coexistence and mutual enrichment of a
plurality of identities (within and between
nations) A jigsaw puzzle where each piece is
different and unique but together they form a
single picture
Collective well being in diversity is a viable
route in this paradigm
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STYLISED FEATURES OF THE CURRENT PARADIGM SHIFT
work organisation
Innovation and creativity as sources of
productivity, quality and competitiveness Continu
ous improvement by all participants Networks,
teamwork, enrichment of tasks and work
satisfaction as conditions for creativity
Replacing both manual and mental routine work
Both INSIDE and OUTSIDE work
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STYLISED FEATURES OF THE CURRENT PARADIGM SHIFT
work organisation
Quality of life at work participation training
power in decision making flexibility (place and
hours) monetary and moral recognition of
contribution services at workvarious
determinants of income and working times
EXCLUSION and INSECURITY. Marginalisation of
portions of society with precarious working
conditions, little knowledge, no hope
Possibility of creative self-realization at all
levels of skill and incomes (wide spectrum of
work and life styles) AN INCLUSIVE KNOWLEDGE
SOCIETY with multiple safety nets and
compensatory mechanisms
An institutional set-up for reaping the benefits
of the knowledge society for all is a viable
route in this paradigm
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STYLISED FEATURES OF THE CURRENT PARADIGM SHIFT
environment
Greater value of intangible products and
services Total quality, zero rejects, zero waste,
no effluent, closed-cycle processes. Measurement
and process instruments to control materials use
and pollution Smaller is better (microprocessor
trajectory) Multiple forms of agriculture (from
organic to mass) Capacity to incorporate a
variety of sources of energy
Increasing consumption of intangibles in the ICT
space Increasing preference for natural
materials, organic foods, custom-made and
environmentally friendly products, etc. Growing
demand for regulation
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FROM MASS PRODUCTION WE INHERITED Resource
depletion, pollution of various sorts, including
global warming
ICT-BASED GLOBALISATION COULD BRING DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE WORLD But not with the continuation
and further spread of the Fordist patterns of
consumption (energy intensity, planned
obsolescence and waste)
HOW MANY PLANETS WOULD THAT REQUIRE?
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NEW TECHNOLOGIES COME WRAPPED IN THE OLD . . .
AND SO DO NEW INSTITUTIONSincluding production
and consumption habits and norms
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AN ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY ROUTE IS THE MOST
REALISTIC OPTION
There are economic, climatic and geopolitical
pressures moving in that direction And social
thinking and behaviour is slowly moving there
too
THE TECHNO-ECONOMIC PARADIGM OF THE ICT
REVOLUTION (in contrast with the mass production
paradigm)
CAN COMBINE PROFITABLE GROWTH WITH ENVIRONMENTAL
PROTECTION
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The answerto whether this paradigmcan fulfil
collective welfare goalsis, therefore, YES!
But neither pure free marketsnor simple
anti-globalisationwill get us there
THE STATEAND CIVIL SOCIETYmust take an active
rolein fully using the potential of the ICT
paradigmto redirect innovation towards those
goals
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SOCIALUTOPIANISM?
Not more than that of someone who,in the 1930s
depression,might have proposed Achieving
welfare for all and full employmentin the
advanced countries (and the independence of most
colonies)
SUCH GOALS CAN BE ACHIEVED while aligning the
interests of business with the interests of
national and world development and of human
survival!
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If these thoughts I have shared with you are a
reasonable approximation to the way technology
influences social progress
There is no reason to expectthe space of the
viable to be narrower nowthan it was with the
mass production paradigm If anything, it could
be wider, given the trend towards variety But,
it is certainly A DIFFERENT SPACE!
And for the new potential to be realised
IMAGINATIVE VIABLE PROGRAMMES TO CONSTRUCT A
BETTER FUTURE MUST BE PUT FORTH
WITHOUT THEM, A GREAT OPPORTUNITY WILL HAVE BEEN
WASTED
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Thank you
Let us now continue the conversation