IPIECA Workshop: International Policy Approaches to Address the Climate Change Challenge

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Architectures to Address Development, Adaptative
Capacity, and Mitigation Workshop Session 2
Policy Architectures

• IPIECA Workshop International Policy Approaches
  to Address the Climate Change Challenge
• Beijing, China
• Kilaparti Ramakrishna
• 25 October 2005

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Old Rules, Complex Problems, New Realities

• Convention/Protocol Model
• Pervasive Global Environmental Problems
• End of Multilateralism?

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The Record

• Preparations for UNFCCC began in 1990.
• UNFCCC was adopted in 1992.
• Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997.
• The Protocol aimed to reduce Industrialized
  Country emissions from 1990 by 5 by the First
  Commitment Period 2008-2012.
• With US denouncing the Protocol and the
  compromises reached in Marrakech in 1997 the
  total reductions by the end of FCP will be about
  1 of industrialized country GHG emissions.
• Counting from 1990, it will have been 22 years to
  achieve about 1 of GHG emission reductions.

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Headlines
From SCIENCE 9 SEPTEMBER 2005
From SCIENCE 9 SEPTEMBER 2005
From SCIENCE 9 SEPTEMBER 2005
From NATURE 22 SEPTEMBER 2005
From SCIENCE 16 SEPTEMBER 2005
From ECOLOGY AUGUST 2005
5
The Prospect

• If the goal is keep the temperature increase to
  be below 2 degree C, the world community need to
  ensure that greenhouse gas emissions do not
  exceed 550 PPMV by 2050.
• Our record so far?

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STABILIZATION WEDGES Solving the Climate
Problem for the Next 50 Years with Current
Technologies S. Pacala and R. Socolow
13 AUGUST 2004 VOL 305 SCIENCE 968-972 www.scienc
emag.org
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15 Potential wedges Strategies available to
reduce the carbon emission rate in 2054 by 1
GtC/year or to reduce carbon emissions from 2004
to 2054 by 25 GtC.
WEDGES
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15 Potential wedges Strategies available to
reduce the carbon emission rate in 2054 by 1
GtC/year or to reduce carbon emissions from 2004
to 2054 by 25 GtC.
Economy-wide carbon-intensity reduction 1.
Efficient vehicles 2. Reduced use of
vehicles 3. Efficient buildings 4. Efficient
baseload coal plants Fuel Shift 5. Gas baseload
power for coal baseload power CO2 capture and
storage 6. Capture CO2 at baseload power
plant 7. Capture CO2 at H2 plant 8. Capture CO2
at coal-to-synfuels plant Geological
storage Nuclear fission 9. Nuclear power for
coal power Renewable electricity and fuels 10.
Wind power for coal power 11. PV power for coal
power 12. Wind H2 in fuel-cell car for gasoline
in hybrid car 13. Biomass fuel for fossil
fuel Forests and agricultural soils 14. Reduced
deforestation, plus reforestation, afforestation,
and new plantations. 15.
Conservation tillage

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Why Worry about Developing Countries
The four largest emitters of greenhouse-gas (GHG)
emissions in the developing world are Brazil,
China, India, and Mexico. Together these
countries released about 20 of GLOBAL carbon
dioxide emissions in 2002 and are projected to
reach 26 in 2010. With a combined GDP of 23 of
the world in 2002 and projected to reach 27 by
2010, and with an obligation to meet the demands
of 42 of the worlds population, the pressures
on these countries for economic development are
immense indeed. In other words, the
industrialized countries acting by themselves
could not effectively address the climate change.
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What Role for Industrialized Countries?

• Looking only at the potential GHG emission
  increases from developing countries will not get
  us any closer to a meaningful solution.
• Imperative that the Industrialized countries
  deliver on their existing commitments by
  demonstrating that commitments undertaken can be
  met and the flexibility mechanisms do work in
  meeting the twin goals of protecting economic
  development and reduce emissions.

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World energy trends
World primary energy demand in the IEA Reference
Scenario is projected to expand by almost 60
between 2002 and 2030 Fossil fuels will continue
to dominate global energy use, accounting for
some 85 of the increase in world primary demand.
Coal will remain the leading fuel for
generating electricity. Two-thirds of the
increase in global energy demand will come from
developing countries.
International Climate Change Between Gleneagles
and Montreal, (Department for Environment, Food
and Rural Affairs, UK 09/18/2005) Source
International Energy Outlook 2005
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Projections of Future GHG Emissions
118
118
57
15,000
39
39
13,500
12,000
10,500
84
9,000
35
19
19
7,500
42
42
6,000
70
70
4,500
80
80
68
68
26
26
3,000
124
124
1,500
0
World
Developed
Developing
International Climate Change Between Gleneagles
and Montreal, (Department for Environment, Food
and Rural Affairs, UK 09/18/2005) Source WRI,
CAIT
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World Energy Trends
World Primary Energy Demand
The IEA estimates that nearly 90 of the growth
in energy demand between now and 2030 will be
from fossil fuels
International Climate Change Between Gleneagles
and Montreal, (Department for Environment, Food
and Rural Affairs, UK 09/18/2005) Source IEA
World Energy Outlook 2004
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Sources Electricity Production, 2005 CIA World
Factbook CO2 emissions for 2002 IEA Key World
Energy Statistics 2004
15
Sources Electricity Production, 2005 CIA World
Factbook CO2 emissions for 2002 IEA Key World
Energy Statistics 2004
16
Sources Electricity Production, 2005 CIA World
Factbook CO2 emissions for 2002 IEA Key World
Energy Statistics 2004
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Conflicting Proposals?
Whether it is the Vision Statement or the focus
given to climate change at the 2005 Gleneagles G8
Summit or numerous other senior ministerial
meetings, a major topic of conversation is how to
bring about meaningful policies for the twin
goals of meeting the basic needs of the
populations in the emerging economies and
reducing the growth of greenhouse gas emissions.
Unfortunately, despite all this activity within
the context of international negotiations, real
progress needs additional initiatives that target
policy development at national levels.
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Promoting International Collaboration

• Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development
  and Climate
• Methane to Markets Partnership
• International Partnership for the Hydrogen
  Economy (IPHE)
• Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum (CSLF)
• Generation IV International Forum (GIF)
• ITER (International Fusion Experiment)
• Regional and Bilateral Activities
• Clean Energy Initiative
• Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
  Partnership (REEEP)
• Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st
  Century (REN21)
• Group on Earth Observations

Harlan L. Watson, Kyoto Protocol Assessing the
Status of Efforts to Reduce Greenhouse Gases
October 5, 2005 U.S. Dept. of State
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Promoting International Collaboration
Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean Development
and Climate In July 2005, the U.S. joined
Australia, China, India, Japan, and Korea to
create the Asia-Pacific Partnership for Clean
Development and Climate to focus on voluntary
practical measures to create new investment
opportunities, build local capacity, and remove
barriers to the introduction of clean, more
efficient technologies. The partnership is
designed to help each country meet nationally
designed strategies for improving energy
security, reducing pollution, and addressing the
long-term challenge of climate change.
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Promoting International Collaboration
Methane to Markets Partnership Launched in
November 2004, the Methane to Markets
Partnership, led on the U.S. side by EPA, now
includes 16 partner countries. Initially, the
Partnership will target three major methane
sources landfills, underground coal mines, and
natural gas and oil systems. The Partnership has
the potential to deliver by 2015 annual
reductions in methane emissions of up to 50
million metric tons of carbon equivalent or
recovery of 500 billion cubic feet of natural
gas. When fully achieved, these results could
lead to stabilized or even declining levels of
global atmospheric concentrations of methane.
Markets member governments include the
Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China,
Colombia, India, Italy, Japan, Korea, Mexico,
Nigeria, Russian Federation, Ukraine, U.S., and
the United Kingdom.
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Promoting International Collaboration
International Partnership for the Hydrogen
Economy (IPHE) Representatives from 17 national
governments and the European Commission have
formed IPHE to provide a vehicle to organize,
coordinate, and leverage multinational hydrogen
research programs that advance the transition to
a global hydrogen economy.Through IPHE, the U.S.
has assisted Brazil and China in developing
hydrogen roadmaps. Partners include Australia,
Brazil, Canada, China, European Commission,
France, Germany, Iceland, India, Italy, Japan,
New Zealand, Norway, Korea, Russia, U.S., and the
U.K. Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum
(CSLF) CSLF is a multilateral initiative it
provides a framework for international
collaboration on sequestration technologies. The
Forums main focus is assisting the development
of technologies to separate, capture, transport,
and store carbon dioxide safely over the long
term, making carbon sequestration technologies
broadly available internationally, and addressing
wider issues, such as regulation and policy,
relating to carbon capture and storage. In
addition to these activities, CSLF members and
other interested nations are invited to
participate in the FutureGen clean coal project.
Members include Australia, Brazil, Canada, China,
Colombia, Denmark, European Commission, France,
Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico,
Netherlands, Norway, Korea, Russian Federation,
South Africa, U.S., and the U.K.
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Promoting International Collaboration
Generation IV International Forum (GIF) In 2002,
ten countries and Euratom joined to charter GIF,
a multilateral collaboration to develop the
fourth generation of advanced, economical, safe,
and proliferation-resistant nuclear systems that
can be adopted commercially no later than 2030. A
technology roadmap developed by the GIF and DOEs
Nuclear Energy Research Advisory Committee in
2003 identified six technologies as candidates
for future designs. Based on the Roadmap, GIF
countries are jointly preparing a collaborative
research program to develop and demonstrate the
projects. GIF members include the Argentina,
Brazil, Canada, Euratom, France, Japan, Republic
of Korea, South Africa, Switzerland, U.S., and
the U.K.. ITER In January 2003, President Bush
announced that the United States was joining the
negotiations for the construction and operation
of the international fusion experiment known as
ITER. If successful, this multi-billion-dollar
research project will advance progress toward
producing clean, renewable, commercially-available
fusion energy by the middle of the century. The
experimental reactor will be sited in Cadarache,
France. ITER members include the United States,
China, European Union, Japan, Russian Federation,
and Korea.
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Promoting International Collaboration
Regional and Bilateral Activities Since 2001,
the United States has established 15 climate
partnerships with key countries and regional
organizations that, together with the United
States, account for almost 80 percent of global
greenhouse gas emissions. These partnerships
encompass over 400 individual activities, and
successful joint projects have been initiated in
areas such as climate change research and
science, climate observation systems, clean and
advanced energy technologies, carbon capture,
storage and sequestration, and policy approaches
to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Partners
include Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Central
America (Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador,
Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama),
European Union, Germany, India, Italy, Japan,
Korea, Mexico, New Zealand, Russian Federation,
and South Africa.
Harlan L. Watson, Kyoto Protocol Assessing the
Status of Efforts to Reduce Greenhouse Gases
October 5, 2005 U.S. Dept. of State
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Promoting International Collaboration
Clean Energy Initiative At the 2002 World Summit
on Sustainable Development (WSSD) held in
Johannesburg, South Africa, the United States
launched a "Clean Energy Initiative," to bring
together governments, international
organizations, industry and civil society in
partnerships to alleviate poverty and spur
economic growth in the developing world by
modernizing energy services. The Initiative
consists of four market-oriented,
performance-based partnerships Global Village
Energy Partnership Partnership for Clean Indoor
Air Partnership for Clean Fuels and Vehicles
and Efficient Energy for Sustainable Development.
Harlan L. Watson, Kyoto Protocol Assessing the
Status of Efforts to Reduce Greenhouse Gases
October 5, 2005 U.S. Dept. of State
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Promoting International Collaboration
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
Partnership Renewable Energy Policy Network for
the 21st Century Group on Earth Observations
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Gleneagles Dialogue

• At Gleneagles (G8 2005) the G8 launched the
  Gleneagles Dialogue to provide a forum for
  continuing discussions among the G8 with China,
  India, Brazil, South Africa and Mexico, and other
  countries with significant energy needs.
• The Dialogue provides a forum for participating
  countries to work together on shared challenges
  of addressing climate change, energy security,
  and access to energy.
• The World Bank and the International Energy
  Administration will play important roles in
  supporting the Dialogue
• The World Bank is working to create a framework
  for investment in cleaner energy technologies
  and in measures necessary for adaptation,
  involving the private sector and the regional
  development banks.
• The IEA is analyzing alternative energy
  strategies and supporting work on best practice
  in energy efficiency and cleaner coal
  technologies.
• November 1 is the first meeting of the Dialogue
  in the UK with energy and environment ministers
  from 20 countries participating with the World
  Bank, IEA, UNFCCC, along with partnerships of
  Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
  Partnership and Carbon Sequestration Leadership
  Forum.

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Some Details
Each country has unique potential to build a GHG
strategy that helps with its own development
plans. There is increasing concern in India on
the impact of black carbon from incomplete
combustion and unfiltered exhaust that has a
strong forcing component. Clearing up this
problem has profound local health and
environmental benefit as well as global climate
benefit.   Brazil is one of the few countries
in the entire group of G-77 countries, to
contemplate national legislation for climate
protection (National Policies on Climate Change,
introduced April 2005). It is a world leader in
renewable energy and is intensely engaged in
developing a rational development plan for the
Amazon that protects key biomes and the Amazon
with a huge CO2 fixing potential, while ensuring
that the development that does take place is
sustainable.
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Some Details (2)
China has quadrupled its GDP while only doubling
its energy use, and intends to do so again. This
is the largest, fastest energy intensity
improvement in history. A look at how China
accomplished this remarkable feat offers valuable
lessons to other large developing countries.
Further it will help in structuring future
crediting systems through flexibility mechanisms
and such for greenhouse gas emissions reductions.
Work done in India on reducing black carbon
could be extremely beneficial to China.  Mexico
until recently a member of the G-77 has now
joined the Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD). When combined with its
role in the North American Free Trade Agreement
(NAFTA), it has a unique opportunity to try the
variety of flexibility mechanisms contained in
the Kyoto Protocol. In the process Mexico could
pave the way for other developing countries in
South America and elsewhere with valuable tools
in the actual operation of these mechanisms. It
could also conceivably lead the creation of a
North American Carbon agreement, working with the
United States and Canada to develop a
continent-wide strategy.
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Progress?
There have been a number of efforts to understand
the extent to which no-regrets mitigation
options have already been implemented in Brazil,
China, India, and Mexico as well as assessing the
least-cost GHG mitigation measures beyond
no-regrets.
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Progress to Build on

• China, India, and Mexico have succeeded in
  reducing the energy and carbon intensity of their
  economies, and plan to do more.
• Brazil has renewable energy commitments in
  transportation and electricity generation, and
  has tried to get the world community to adopt a
  target of 10 percent of their energy needs from
  renewable sources of energy at the World Summit
  on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg in
  2002.
• Mexico as an emerging economy is an ideal
  candidate to benefit from a North American target
  if one could be devised.
• In addition both India and Brazil use biomass for
  energy purposes although efficiencies could be
  significantly scaled up. Furthermore, these four
  countries could cooperate on energy-technology
  innovation and adaptation measures, strengthening
  their individual efforts in a collaborative
  setting.

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The Challenge

• Communicate to the developing world and key
  emerging economies, the idea that there is a
  direct, albeit hidden, relationship between
  poverty alleviation and responsible climate
  policy.
• The Millennium Development Goals articulate
  poverty alleviation as a priority, but how does
  one link that goal with what climate negotiators
  bring to the intergovernmental conclaves?
• Unless the developing world identifies that
  actions required under the rubric of stabilizing
  the climate system are in their national
  interest, one cannot expect meaningful measures
  from any of these countries whether large or
  small.