Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on Training Workshop

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Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Hands-on
Training Workshop
Integration of VA Analysis
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Outline

• Integration of results
• General points
• Cross sector and multisector integration
• Setting priorities
• Vulnerability
• Adaptation

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Why is Integration Important?

• Impacts do not happen in isolation
• Impacts in one sector can adversely or positively
  affect another
• Some sectors are affected directly and indirectly
• Others just indirectly
• Sometimes a change in one sector can offset the
  affect of climate change in another sector
• In addition, integration is necessary for ranking
  vulnerabilities and adaptations

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Main Types of Integration of Results

• Cross-sector integration
• Link related sectors
• Multisector
• Economy or system wide
• Integrated assessment models
• Economic models

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Impacts in One Sector Can Overwhelm Direct
Climate Effect

• In a recent study, crop yields in California were
  generally estimated to increase with climate
  change
• In one scenario, a 25 reduction in water supply
  results in a net loss of 1 billion/year to
  California agriculture

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Integrating WEAP and CROPWAT
SCENARIOS Population, Development, Technology
WATBAL Streamflow PET
SCENARIOS GCM
CERES Crop water demand
WEAP Evaluation Planning
CLIMATE Precip., Temp., Solar Rad.
CROPWAT Regional irrigation
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Key Indicators for Egyptian Baseline
(1990 absolute 2060-optimistic/pessimistic
percentage change from 1990)
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Multisector Integration
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IMAGE Model
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Regional/National Economic Models

• Quantitative way to examine climate change market
  impacts throughout an economy
• Problem with nonmarket impacts
• Often macroeconomic models or general equilibrium
  models
• Require much data
• Can be expensive
• Can be complex
• Communication of assumptions can be a challenge

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An Example of a Regional Model
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A More Simple Approach

• Add up results sector by sector
• Limited by what is known within sectors
• Problem of how to integrate across multiple end
  points
• Impacts may be measured with different metrics
• Need to account for many sectors
• Does not capture sectoral interactions

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Estimates of Damages for India
Sector Damages ( billions)
Agriculture -53.2
Forestry 0.1
Energy -21.9
Water -1.2
Coastal Resources -0.1
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Can Also Measure Number of People Affected

• Millions at Risk study did this
• Global burden of disease

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Millions at Risk Study
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At a Minimum

• Should at least qualitatively identify linkages
  and possible direction of impacts
• If crops can be examined, not water supply, then
  identify how change in water supply could affect
  agricultural production

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Integration through Setting Priorities

• Vulnerability
• Adaptation

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Prioritization of Vulnerabilities

• It can be quite useful for
• Focusing adaptation measures
• Monitoring
• Adaptation

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Process is as Important as Outcome

• This is an expression of values, not a purely
  analytic exercise
• Need to include stakeholders and policy makers
• The following are tools that can be useful in
  setting priorities
• Whether you use qualitative or quantitative
  approach, the most important thing is JUST DO IT

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NAPA Process
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Adaptation Policy Framework
Table 4 Ranking of priority systems/regions/clima
te hazards
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OECD Method
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Ranking Adaptations

• Screening
• Multicriteria assessment
• Benefit-cost analysis

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Screening Matrix for Human Settlement and Tourism
Adaptation Measure in Antigua
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Multicriteria Assessment
Options Effectiveness Feasibility Cost Score
A 3 2 2 7
B 2 4 4 10
C 5 1 3 9
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Adaptation Decision Matrix for Agriculture in
Kazakhstan
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Ranking Based on Scenario
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Benefit-Cost Analysis

• Estimate all benefits and costs in a common
  metric to determine whether benefits gt costs
• Monetary values often used
• Difficulty what to do about nonmarket benefits
  or uncertainties
• Difficulty requires much data and analysis

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BCA Example Sea Walls in Kiribati
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What to Use
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Conclusions

• Integration is important to at least identify
  related impacts
• Analysis is desirable because there can be
  surprises
• Integration can also be useful for examining
  total vulnerability and ranking vulnerabilities