Lot 4: Spatial Analysis of interregional migration in correlation with other socioeconomic statistic

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Interregional Migration and Land Use
Pressure B.Eiselt, N. Giglioli, R.Peckham
?
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Acknowledgement
Based mainly on work carried out in the
project Lot 4 Spatial Analysis of
interregional migration in correlation with other
socio-economic statistics Performed by JRC for
EUROSTAT from July 1998-July 1999 by B.Eiselt,
N. Giglioli, R.Peckham, A. Saltelli, T.Sorensen
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Outline
Interregional migration modeling Data and
Software Spatial Interaction models Cluster
analysis Modeling Results GIS based
Visualization tool Speculation on land use
pressure Link to urban expansion Ideas for
modeling Index for pressure
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Data and Software

• Databases
• GISCO - admin. boundaries (NUTS1 2)
• REGIO - socio-economic data flow matrices
• Software
• SPSS 8.0 for statistical analysis
• ARC-VIEW GIS (standard in E.C.)

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Data
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Spatial Interaction Models

• Description
• Exploratory analysis
• Estimation of the models
• Parameters interpretation
• Simulation

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Models description

• The General Spatial Interaction Model has the
  form
• where
• ?i - parameters which characterise the
  propensity of each origin to generate flows
• ?j - parameters which characterise the
  attractiveness of each destination
• ? is a distance deterrence effect.

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Models description

• Four types
• Double Constrained - exploring attractive
  properties of destinations and repulsive
  properties of origins
• Origin Constrained, and Destination Constrained
  - finding explanatory variables
• Unconstrained Model
• - finding explanatory variables, and simulating

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Models description
To apply the ordinary least squares fitting we
make a Logarithmic transformation of the model in
a way that the the error is Normal distributed
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Correlation analysis
Analysis of correlation (Germany example)
Variables
OUT_total
IN_total
GDP
UNEMP
OUT_total
1
0.89
-0.67
0.96
IN_total
1
0.93
-0.57
GDP
1
-0.57
UNEMP
1
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Cluster analysis

• Grouping together regions displaying similar
  properties,
• - based on the values of
• total inflow divided by population,
• total outflow divided by population,
• GDP per inhabitant,
• unemployment rate ( of total workforce).
• These variables are relative and are hence not
  influenced by the population size of the regions.

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Cluster analysis
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Cluster analysis
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Age structure of flows
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Flows by clusters
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Models !
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Models Estimation
- Model choice - Method Least Square and
stepwise regression method - Indicator Goodness
of Fit R2 adjusted
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Statistics !
Kurtosis ?
Poisson distribution ?
NORMALISED ??

ALL OK !
Normal distribution ?
Assumptions ?
Central Limit Theorem ?
Skewness ?
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Models Estimation
Model estimated for Germany 1991 Adj -R2
0.74 logYij 1.7670.934logGDPi0logUnpi
0.829logGDPj0.739logUnpj-1.156logdij
Note the unemployment of origin is not
significant
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Simulation ?

Model fit (1991) R2 74 Forecast (1993) R2
65.6
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Simulation ?
Model fit (1990) R2 74.6 Forecast (1994)
R2 55.2
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Simulation ?
Model fit (1990) R2 78.4 Forecast (1994)
R2 56.8
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Visualization tool
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Visualization tool
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Visualization tool
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Visualization tool
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Conclusions re migration modeling
1) Some positive results. Some hope and
possibilities for modeling. 2) Need more complete
and more detailed data, - especially on the
flows, e.g. - age structure, - educational
level, - cost of living, crime rate etc. 3)
Need to explore and test application to other
EU-Countries (e.g. DK, S, Fi, NL and UK)
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Speculation
Can we link migration -gt land use change
? e.g. look for correlation
between population and urban area - for major
cities - using satellite data to measure changes
in urban perimeter, e.g. at 5 or 10 year
intervals. As it happens there is Project
MURBANDY http//www.riks.nl/RiksGeo/projects/murb
andy/Index.htm
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Speculation
Then we could establish the link GDP -gt
Migration -gt Land use pressure
Driving force
Effect Calibrate model using Pop. Urban
area correlation - probably different in
different countries (different habits, housing
types etc) Improve using - age structure of
flows - education structure of flows
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Speculation
Ideas for index of pressure- Population/Urban
area ? ? Pop/Urban area ? Net Flow
/Urban Area from CORINE data (grid)
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Simulated pressure index for year 2000
(tentative!)