NATIONAL SEMINAR

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NATIONAL SEMINAR ENIVFRONMENTAL, SOCIAL AND
CULTURAL IMPACT OF WATER SCARCITY IN SINDH
ORGANIZED BY DR. M.A. KAZI INSTITUTE OF
CHEMISTRY, UNIVERSITY OF SINDH, JAMSHORO. ON 15
16 JANUARY 2004. KEY PRESENTATION KAZI ABDUL
MAJEED EX-SENATOR
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Overview of Water Resources in Pakistan
By Abdul Majid Kazi Ex-Senator
3

• Sources of Fresh Water
• River Water
• Groundwater

4
River Water Availability

• Pakistan mainly depends on the flows of Indus
  River System for its irrigated agriculture.
• Under the Indus Water Treaty 1960, the three
  Eastern Rivers namely Sutlaj, Beas and Ravi were
  allocated to India for their exclusive use
• India has also been allowed to develop 13, 43,
  477 acres of irrigated cropped area on the
  western river without any restriction on the
  quantum of water to be utilized.

5
Continued

• India has already developed 7,85,789 acres for
  which 6.75 MAF had been used. Thus for the
  remaining area of 5, 57, 678 acres, 4.79 MAF
  would be required on prorata basis.
• The flow pattern of our rivers is highly erratic.
  The highest annual in the recorded history was
  186.79 MAF in the year 1959-60 as against the
  minimum of 95.99 MAF in the year 2001-02.
• annual average water availability during the
  period 1922-2003 has been 138.09 MAF, whereas
  water availability on 4 out of 5 years is 124 MAF.

6
Continued

• Kabul River contributes maximum of 34 MAF and
  minimum of 12 MAF with annual average of about 20
  MAF to Indus main
• We have at present no treaty with Afghanistan for
  apportionment of Kabul River water.
• Short-term uses by Afghanistan on Kabul river as
  stated by president of Pakistan in his televised
  speech on 13th September 2003 is 8 MAF.
• Thus the water availability on annual average
  will reduce to 130.09 MAF and on 4 out of five
  years will go down to 116 MAF.

7
Continued

• At the time of independence, the irrigation
  system, conceived originally as a whole, was
  divided between India and Pakistan without regard
  to irrigated boundaries. This resulted in the
  creation of an international water dispute in
  1948, which was finally resolved by the
  enforcement of Indus Water Treaty in 1960 under
  aegis of the World bank. The treaty assigned the
  three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to
  India, with an estimated total mean annual flow
  of 33 million acre feet (MAF) and the three
  western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to
  Pakistan with a transfer of irrigation supplies
  from the western rivers to areas in Pakistan
  formerly served by the eastern rivers as well as
  some development potential to compensate for the
  perpetual loss of the eastern waters. The Indus
  Basin Project including Mangla Dam, 5 barrages, 1
  syphon and 8 inter river link canals, was
  completed during 1960-71, while Tarbela Dam
  started partial operation in 1975-76.
• After partition, Kotri, Taunsa and Guddu Barrages
  were completed on the Indus River to provide
  controlled irrigation to areas previously served
  by inundation canals. Also, three additional
  inter-river link canals were built prior to the
  initiation of Indus Basin Project.

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Water Accord 1991
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• River water utilization
• Pre Independence To date
• 
  MAF
• Pre independence 64
• Pre Indus water treaty 78.6
• Pre Mangla (1966-67) 87.7
• Pre Tarbela 98.9
• Present 105
• Water accord allocation 117.35

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Present annual water requirements commitments
1.Water Accord allocation below rim stations.
114.4 MAF 2.Average System losses (Post
Tarbela 1977-94) 14.7 MAF 3.Indias
authorized uses on western rivers (unutilized
portion) 4.8 MAF 4.Outflows to sea
(Water Accord Figure) 10 MAF 5. For use by
Mangla Raising 3 MAF
Total 146.9 MAF
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• Escapages below Kotri Scenario
• Post Tarbela Period (1976-77 to 2002-3)
• MAF
• Out flow to sea down stream Kotri
  10
• Eastern River contribution. 8
• Future dev on Kabul River by Afghanistan
  8
• For use by Mangla raising 3
• For use by L.B.O.D project sanctioned
• by ECNEC 2.2
• Indias authorized uses for their
• balance area to be cropped
  4.8
• Unutilized allocation by provinces
  12
• Total 48

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(No Transcript)
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Water Availability Criterion.
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A- Water resources management Committee of
National commission on Agriculture (1987) Until
there is storage capacity large enough to absorb
for above flows for carry over into subsequent
years, the development would have to be based on
the levels of flows which can be relied upon at
least 4 years out of 5. this would apply not only
to the direct use of flows but also to the
creation of additional surface storages
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B- Integrated valley Development Program
(1989) Until such time as the socio economic
conditions in our country improve and the value
or the worth of water rises, which in turn
justify the construction of carry over storages,
The development may have to confined to the
level of flows which can be relied upon at least
4 out of 5 years
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C- Ten year perspective development plan 2001-11
and three year development plan 2001-4 (page 282)
by planning division Govt. of Pakistan Based on
72 years of inflow data (1922-23 to 94-95) of
western rivers Table 18.4 shows mean, maximum of
availability of water
In flows of Water Balance ( WAPDA-IRSA reports)
17
Continued

• It is clear from the above table that flows in
  western rivers vary significantly. For every 4
  out of 5 years, yearly flows are around 123.59
  MAF. Super floods occur approximately once in
  five years. This may increase the average to a
  respectable 137.27 MAF per year but in the
  remaining 4 years availability of water is 123.59
  MAF

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Water Position in different scenarios
No Surplus water Available
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Pattern of Water Availability

• Facts and figure presented so far of water
  availability clearly depicts that there is no
  surplus water available on an average year basis,
  4 out of 5 years basis and even on down stream
  Kotri approach basis
• These occasional surpluses are ranging from 4.86
  MAF to 43.83 MAF per annum in 7 years out of 28
  years (post Tarbela period) as under
• 4.86, and 5 MAF for 2 Years, 15 and 21 MAF for
  two years, 32, 33, 43 MAF for Three Years

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Ground Water600,000 Tube wells

• Meets 40 crop water requirement

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Ground Water Fresh ground water pump age
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Sharing Shortages and Surpluses under Water
Accord Clause 14(a) (b)

• 14 (a) The system-wize allocation will be worked
  out separately, on ten daily basis and will be
  attached with this agreement as part and parcel
  of it.
• (b)The record of actual average system uses for
  the period 1977 - 82, would form the guideline
  for developing future regulation pattern. These
  ten daily uses would be adjusted pro-rata to
  correspond to the indicated seasonal allocations
  of the different canal systems and would form the
  basis for sharing shortages and surpluses on all
  Pakistan basis.

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Continued

• The above provisions of the water accord
  regarding sharing shortages and surpluses are
  specific and unambiguous.
• In 1994 Punjab brought in an ex-agenda working
  paper before the inter-provincial ministerial
  committee meeting chaired by Mr. G.M Khar
  (Minister of Water and Power) in which it was
  proposed to share shortages of water on the basis
  of 1977-82 average uses.

24
Continued

• Sindh Representatives opposed above proposal as
  it was violative of the water accord and against
  the CCI decision.
• However, In the Minutes to the meeting it was
  shown that Sindh agreed to the above mentioned
  proposal. The Sindh representative objected
  vehemently and ministry of Water and Power
  recalled its decision (which was not implemented
  till 1999). IRSA was advised by the ministry to
  look into the objections raised by Sindh and
  settled them.

25
Continued

• In 1999 IRSA arbitrarily enforced wrong/recalled
  decision of 1994. On objections from Sindh and
  Punjab matter was referred to Law and Justice
  division twice who on both the occasions advised
  that the 1994 arrangement is in violation of the
  accord and constitution.
• The Chief Executive/President directed IRSA to
  annul the 1994 decision. The notification of
  annulment was issued by IRSA in November 2001.

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Continued..

• However, Water is still being distributed under
  this annulled decision.
• Shortages are being shared under 1994 formula and
  surplus under the 1991 Accord although the Water
  Accord clearly lays down the shortages and
  surpluses have to be shared under 14 (b) of the
  accord on all Pakistan basis.
• The continued operation of this distribution
  un-justifiably from last over 3 years has caused
  great loss and hardship to Sindh (See Table on
  following page)

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Comparative Statement Showing Water Share of
Punjab Sindh under Water Accord 1991 and under
(Historic use) 1994 Formula

Fig. in MAF
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Comparative Statement Showing Water Share of
Punjab Sindh under Water Accord 1991 and under
(Historic use) 1994 Formula

Fig. in MAF Part ii -
comments MAF Total Kharif allocation to 04
Provinces 79.14 Baluchistan NWFP
8.13 02 provinces are exempeted to share
shortages Punjab 37.07 Sindh
33.94 During shortages from 1to 3
MAF, Punjab withdraws from 1.65-1.69 More than
accord share against the 14(b), which states the
surpluses Shortages shall be shared on all
Pakistan basis During shortages Punjab draws
from 1.5 to 1.69 MAF more than its due share
under water accord
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Operation of Reservoirs and Indus Link canals
(C-J and T-P)

• Under Indus Water Treaty 1960 Mangla, Chashma and
  Tarbela reservoirs and two link canals (C-J, T-P)
  were constructed to transfer water from Indus to
  its tributaries
• Water has to be stored in reservoirs only if it
  is surplus to allocations/commitments.

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In Reality

• However, Water is being stored particularly in
  Mangla during SHORTAGE PERIODS by Punjab (April -
  May) when water is critical for Kharif Sowing in
  Sindh.
• At the same time, water is diverted by Punjab
  from Indus to tributaries which further
  aggravates Kharif Sowing in Sindh.

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Greater Thal Canal (GTC)

• This Canal is proposed to irrigate an area of 1.5
  MAF with water requirement of about 2.5 MAF. It
  is claimed that 1.9 MAF is available under the
  Water Accord although there is no such provision
  in the Accord. The provision of Water for GTC
  was made in a clandestine manner by Punjab in
  draft ten daily statements in contravention of
  Clause 14 (b) of the accord.

32
Continued

• As the GTC did not exist during 1977-82 and not
  even upto signing of the Accord in 1991 and
  therefore does not qualify to be included in ten
  daily statements

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Secretary Irrigation and Power, Sindh submitted a
note U.O. No. A(WD)/IP/5-91, dated 05.10.1991 to
the Secretary to Chief Minister Sindh as
under-   It was reported by Mr. Muhammad Alim
Baloch, who attended the meeting (of CCI on 16th
September 1991) as an Expert along with the Chief
Minister and Chief Secretary that system-wise
adjusted ten daily allocations of the provinces
were presented before the Council of Common
Interests and it was agreed except the inclusion
of the allocations of Greater Thal System which
is unsanctioned project. In this regard
Secretary Water and Power was asked to look into
this item and get it corrected to bring it in
line with the Water Accord requirements. \It is
apparent that revised correct ten daily
statements were not prepared by excluding
gtreater Thar Canal so as to bring them in line
with CCI decision and provisions of water card.
The correct daily statement under clause 2, 14,b,
adjusted prorata cases are in the table shown in
pink colour (second row) under table in bold
letter.
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Punjab System wise Kharif Allocations Ref Clause
14 (a) and 14 (b) of Water Accord 1991  
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Utilization of Water resources

• The first and foremost charge of the existing
  water resources is to ensure the allocated share
  of water to all the provinces for their exciting
  canal system according to the provisions of Water
  Accord.
• Arbitrarily 1994 formula is being enforced which
  is blatant violation of Water Accord and needs to
  discontinued.

36
Continued

• According to this formula, Punjab gets 1.52 MAF
  more than its full share of accord during the
  periods of shortages
• whole burden of shortages fall on the province
  of Sindh, which is highly unjust and unfair.

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Conclusion/Suggestion

• The water must be distributed amongst the
  provinces in accordance with the clear, specific
  and unambiguous provinces of the water accord
• The future storages and irrigation schemes may be
  considered only according to availability of
  surplus water on 4 out of 5 years basis so as to
  ensure that legitimate interests of existing
  canal systems are not adversely affected.

38
Continued

• 3. Regulations, management and operation of dams
  and inter-provincial link canal should be stream
  lined so that no water stored are diverted unless
  the share of lower riparian under the Water
  Accord is not ensured.
• Water conservation like lining of canals/water
  courses particularly in saline area may be
  under-taken to save water losses in the system.

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Continued

• Improvements in the Agriculture practices such as
  precision land leveling etc should be undertaken
  at massive level.
• In view of the facts discussed above, The
  construction of Greater Thal Canal may be stopped
  immediately, looking at the technical/legal
  aspects of the project.

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Any Qs Please !
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Thanks