Is climate change moving the goalposts for fisheries management Keith Brander ICESGLOBEC Coordinator

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Is climate change moving the goalposts for
fisheries management?Keith BranderICES/GLOBEC
Coordinator
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• In order to manage you need to be able to measure
  where you are in relation to objectives (
  goalposts) and devise tools for moving you in the
  right direction.
• Climate change may move the goalposts or our
  position in relation to them.

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Fish stocks fluctuate naturally some of this is
due to climate
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Tropical species have spread northward
from Quéro, Du Buit , Vayne
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The NAO (a climate indicator) shows upward trend
2004
Further reading on how the NAO is coupled to
global climate processes http//www.cgd.ucar.edu/
jhurrell/press.htmltrs
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Changes in the NAO alter S/R relationships and
change the precautionary reference
points(Brander and Mohn 2004, Brander 2005)
Low NAO (1960s and 70s)
High NAO (since 1990)
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• Our information base (1960 to present) is a
  period of unprecedented change in climate.
• Evaluating the effects of climate change on past
  trends is the first step
• Goalposts should allow for consequences of future
  climate
• Stationary goalposts (e.g. precautionary
  reference points) which do not allow for climate
  effects may be misleading

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How do biodiversity objectives add to or modify
fisheries management?

• Preservation of
• Genetic diversity (allelles and genotypes)
• Species and populations
• Ecosystems and their functioning (productivity
  recycling capacity)

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Why does biodiversity matter for
fisheries? (remember that agriculture developed
by suppressing biodiversity)

• Populations require appropriate genetic
  variability in order to adapt to climate change
• Populations at edges of range are adapted to
  extremes (but are probably also more vulnerable
  to fishing.)
• Should we give additional protection to
  populations at the extremes?

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• Cod recruitment is affected by temperature

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ArtistGlynn Gorick
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• Are the objectives realistic?
• Can they be made operational and effective (from
  objectives to goalposts)?
• Can we afford them?
• Are they consistent with objectives being set for
  terrestrial systems?
• How are they affected by climate change?