Basic%20Meteorology%20for%20Emergency%20Managers:%20Proactive%20Decision-Support%20for%20Severe%20Weather%20Events

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Basic Meteorology for Emergency
ManagersProactive Decision-Support for Severe
Weather Events

• Training and Decision-Support Program for Public
  Safety in Oklahoma (OK-FIRST)
• Severe Weather Products Available Nationally
• 3. Training and Other Weather Data Resources

• Goals Of This Presentation
• Improve communication with local NWS offices.
• Anticipate NWS warnings for better
  implementation.
• Eventually develop better decision-support
  systems.

Dr. Kevin Kloesel and Mr. Dale Morris Oklahoma
Climatological Survey University of
Oklahoma Norman, OK
http//okfirst.ocs.ou.edu
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What is OK-FIRST?
Provides access to customized environmental
information and products
Oklahoma Mesonet (115 station automated network)
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NEXRAD (20 products from 15 radars mosaics)
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National Weather Service text and graphic products
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OK-FIRST Decision-Support System
Instructional material integrated into the
decision-support pages aids interpretation of
weather patterns and radarsignatures.
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Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
Oklahoma Fire Danger Model
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Radar-Derived Rainfall Accumulation
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The OK-FIRST Curriculum
A week-long computer literacy and data
interpretation workshop held at the University
of Oklahoma/Oklahoma Weather Center
Combination of lecture materials and hands-on
laboratory case-study exercises.
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Completion of course provides an individual with
certification to use the OK-FIRST system.
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Two-day Refresher Courses
Often held regionally.
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Participants must attend at least one refresher
every 18 months to maintain certification.
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Two-day Assistants Workshops
Basic meteorology, system usage, and severe
weather concepts for other officials besides the
certified participant.
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Comprehensive glossary of weather terminology.
Learning modules for basic metr. (e.g. fronts,
seasons)
Graphical examples of radar, NWS, and surface map
products.
Case studies of severe weather, flooding, and
other events with online exercises and solutions.
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Impacts in Local Communities
One spotter was assigned to a location west of
Moore. As the storms moved in, our spotter
coordinator decided -- due to her OK-FIRST
display -- to move the spotter a couple of miles
south. It was this spotter who gave us first
knowledge of the large wall cloud that eventually
spawned the tornado that destroyed/severely
damaged a dozen homes and apartment buildings.
The spotters call -- along with a warning from
NWS Norman -- caused us to activate our warning
system, and we provided our residents about 10
minutes of warning. There were NO injuries or
fatalities from the storm. The spotter later told
us (numerous times) that had the EOC not moved
him, he would not have been in the proper
location to see the wall cloud! This scenario is
EXACTLY what OK-FIRST was designed to do! It
certainly worked here!!!
Gayland Kitch, City of Moore Emergency
Management
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Impacts in Local Communities
Lincoln County Emergency ManagementBen
SpringfieldMay 3, 1999
Tanger Mall was cleared of people before the
storm arrived. Rural citizens were informed by
updates broadcast on scanner and took
shelter. Patients at Stroud Hospital were moved
into hallways before debris filled the rooms.
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Independent Evaluation
Evaluators Summary Finding
The project changed the behavior of local public
safety officials and their approach to
decision-making. OK-FIRST has had a positive
influence on the types of decisions they make,
how they make those decisions, and when they are
willing to make those decisions. They are able
to provide assistance to support a wide range of
government and public service functions from
providing information to schedule public works
projects to deciding to cancel the little league
tournament scheduled for the weekend. Thus, the
benefits that can accrue from the application of
the skills developed through OK-FIRST can be far
ranging and varied.
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Dr. Thomas James, Institute for Public Affairs
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Building OK-FIRST-like Systems in Your State

• Federal Grant Opportunities
• State Offices of Emergency Management,
  Departments of Public Safety
• Assistance from OK-FIRST
• Dont forget to involve local NWS personnel
  (Warning Coordination Meteorologist)

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Proactive Decision-Support for Severe Weather

• There are literally thousands of available
  weather products results in bookmark
  clutter.

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What products do I use in what situation?
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Proactive Decision-Support for Severe Weather

• Before the Event
• The remainder of this talk
• During the Event
• NWS Warnings Severe Weather Statements
• Radar Products
• Tornadoes Reflectivity, Storm-relative
  VelocityHail Reflectivity, Vertically-Integrate
  d Liquid
• Winds Reflectivity, Velocity
• After the Event (documentation/training)
• Local Storm Reports
• Other databases, news reports, etc.
• Archived warning/radar products

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Before The Event Products

• Use for situational awareness
• Use to alert sister agencies for heads-up
• Use to pre-deploy resources
• Products issued from 7-10 days prior to the
  event to hours before the event.

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U.S. Hazards Assessment

• NWS Climate Prediction Center
  (http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)
• 7-10 day outlook
• Issued weekly on Tuesdays
• Covers fire weather, winter weather,
  flooding, severe weather, and drought

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Convective Outlooks

• NWS Storm Prediction Center
  (http//www.spc.noaa.gov)
• 1,2,3 day outlook
• Categorical and Probabilistic Outlooks
• Accompanying discussion

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Convective Outlooks

• Day 1 Outlook
• outlines areas for severe thunderstorm
  development
• 6 to 30 hour outlook issued 5 times
  daily
• 06Z (the initial Day-1 outlook,
  valid from 12Z to 12Z)
• 13Z and 16Z (the "morning
  updates," valid until 12Z)
• 20Z (the "afternoon update, "
  valid until 12Z)
• 01Z (the "evening update," valid
  until 12Z)

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• Day 2 Outlook
• issued twice daily
• 08Z and 18Z valid for 24 hours
  beginning at 12Z the following day

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What Makes Severe?

• ¾ hail
• 50 knot (58 mph) wind
• tornado

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Convective Outlook Terminology

• Focused on the ingredients for severe weather
• The stability/instability of the atmosphere
• Mechanisms to release the instability
• Mechanisms to generate upward motion
• Atmospheric moisture Atmospheric
  moisture vertical motion
  explosive vertical motion Precipitation
  wind shear?
• 
  Severe Weather

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Stability

• The tendency for air when slightly displaced
  vertically to return to its original position
• Related to the change of temperature with height
  (lapse rate) and warm air rising/cool air
  sinking
• Terms related to stability CAPE, Cap, Lifted
  Index

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Vertical Temperature Profiles

• Balloon observations
• Twice daily in the U.S.
• 0000 1200 UTC (6 AM/PM in winter) (7 AM/PM
  in summer)

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Vertical Temperature Profiles
30,000 ft
18,000 ft
5,000 ft
surface
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Vertical Temperature Profiles
30,000 ft
18,000 ft
5,000 ft
surface
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Vertical Temperature Profiles
30,000 ft
18,000 ft
5,000 ft
surface
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Vertical Temperature Profiles
30,000 ft
18,000 ft
5,000 ft
surface
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30,000 ft
Temperature
Dew Point
18,000 ft
DeepMoisture
5,000 ft
surface
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Sounding Indices
Positive Factors

• LI or LIFT Lifted Index
• Somewhat crude method to measure instability
  (500 mb only)
• LI over 0 stable LI 0 to -3 marginal LI -3
  to -6 moderate LI -6 to -9 very unstable LI
  below -9 extremely unstable

• CAPE Convective Available Potential
  Energy
• Related to updraft strength
• CAPE above 1000 moderately unstable CAPE
  above 2500 very unstable CAPE above 3500
  extremely unstable

30kft
Lifted Index -6
18kft
5kft
sfc
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Negative Factors
30kft
CAPE 1207
SW WindsAir from Mexican Plateau
18kft
TemperatureInversion(T incr. w/ height) also
known as Cap
5kft
sfc
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Cap (Warm Air Aloft)
850 mb (5,000 ft) temperature
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Ridges and Troughs
Notice the ridge in the Central Plains and the
troughs in the east and west. The trough is
where you observe low 500mb heights (low
thickness values and cold temps.). The ridge is
where the highest thickness values (and highest
temps.) are observed.
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TROUGH TROF
TROUGH
RIDGE
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Ridges and Troughs
Experience and physics tells us we have cold
(dense) air at the poles, and warm (less dense)
air in the tropics. Cold air takes up less space
(more dense) than warm air. The Earth is
constantly trying to reach an equilibrium (moving
warm air poleward and cold air equatorward). Ever
-changing ingredients stirred by troughs and
ridges bring the changing weather conditions that
we observe on Earth.
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The real world - Notice the global connectivity
Northern Hemisphere
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This is what we are used to, weather in the box.
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TROUGH TROF
TROUGH
RIDGE
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Air Mass Classification
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Air Mass Classification

• Based on temperature (cold/warm) and moisture
  (moist/dry) characteristics of source region

Temp
maritimeMOIST
continental DRY
Moisture
polar or(arctic)COLD
cP (or cA)COLD DRY
mP COLD MOIST
tropicalWARM
cT WARM DRY
mT WARM MOIST
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Ridges, Troughs, FrontsWhy Do We Care?
Area between trough and downstream ridge is
preferred area for large-scale rising motion
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Ridges, Troughs, FrontsWhy Do We Care?
Surface winds converge along/ahead of
fronts/drylines rising motion
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Zone Forecast
OKZ039-044-045-TXZ086-089-090-081247- ARCHER
TX-CLAY TX-COTTON OK-JEFFERSON OK-STEPHENS
OK-WICHITA TX- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DUNCAN
OK...WICHITA FALLS TX 347 PM CDT SUN APR 7
2002 .TONIGHT...AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE. TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
INTO THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15
MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. .MONDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH BECOMING NORTH EARLY IN
THE MORNING. .TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S. .TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S. .WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY.
HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. .THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID
70S. .FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S
AND HIGHS NEAR 80. .SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PARTLY
CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S AND HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S.
Good first look, but other products provide much
more specific information
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Forecast Discussion
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF
TX FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO TEAM UP WITH
FAVORABLE MID-LEVEL FORCING AND UPPER- LEVEL
DIVERGENCE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND
EMBEDDED CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF AREA. SAME
STORY TONIGHT AT LEAST ACROSS N AND E PARTS OF
AREA AS UPPER LOW OVER NM CONTINUES SLOWLY E
TOWARD OK. MINOR TO NONEXISTANT DIURNAL TEMP
TRENDS TONIGHT...AND IN FACT TEMPS MAY RISE
SLOWLY BENEATH LLJ AS SURFACE MOISTURE IS DRAWN
N-WARD. CATEGORICAL POPS TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF
N AND E CWA. POPS DECREASING FROM SW TO NE
MON...WITH LOW POPS EXTENDED INTO MON EVE ACROSS
E ZONES BENEATH UPPER COLD POOL AND PROGGED LIFT.
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Forecast Discussion
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE NORMAN OK 342 PM CDT SUN APR 7
2002 SEVERE POTENTIAL... MAIN THREAT WILL BE S
OF OUR CWA...BUT AREA SW OF KSPS IS ALSO A BIG
CONCERN. IF SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
CLEARING/ DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR PULL N
INTO OUR TX ZONES...THREAT OF TORNADOES WILL
INCREASE ACCORDINGLY. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT HAIL
THREAT FROM ELEVATED STORMS FARTHER NE INTO MUCH
OF CWA THRU TONIGHT AS LL MOISTURE INCREASES
BENEATH MID-LEVEL COOLING. CENTRAL OK PROGGED TO
DESTABILIZE OVERNIGHT TO MUCAPES OF OVER 1200
J/KG. THEN THERE'S MONDAY. TIMING WILL BE
CRITICAL...BUT IF ANY CLEARING/ HEATING
OCCURS...AREAS E OF N-S SURFACE FRONT AND NE OF
SURFACE LOW WILL DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR A THREAT
OF COLD-CORE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED LARGE
HAIL. FLASH FLOODING... CURRENT PLAN IS TO
CONTINUE WATCH TONIGHT IN SE AS IS. PRECIP HAS
BEEN LIFTING N OF WATCH AREA TODAY BUT CONTINUES
TO REDEVELOP S-WARD TO NEAR RED RIVER...IN AREA
OF FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION. THIS IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH GREATEST THREAT OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN SATURATED AREAS OF SE OK.
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Forecast Discussion
EXTENDED... ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT EVENT LIKELY FOR
LATTER HALF OF WEEK. MOST OF THE MED-RANGE
MODELS NOW TRENDING MUCH DEEPER AND FARTHER S
WITH THE MIDWEEK TROF MOVING INTO THE W...BUT
ARE STILL AT ODDS WITH STRENGTH OF THE ONE
UPSTREAM. LEAD SYSTEM NOW THREATENS TO BECOME
ANOTHER WET AND WILD ONE IN THE THU-FRI TIME
FRAME...AND PROBABLY INTO SAT ESPECIALLY IF MRF
IS RIGHT. SINCE GULF WILL BE RELATIVELY
UNAFFECTED BY THE PRESENT SYSTEM...LL MOISTURE
RETURN SHOULD BE MUCH FASTER AND MORE EFFICIENT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT ONE. POPS WILL BE INCREASED ALL
AREAS THU AND FRI...AND CONTINUED/EXTENDED INTO
SAT/SUN AS ALL MODELS MAINTAIN A WET/ACTIVE
PLAINS LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH EASTERN RIDGE AND
WESTERN TROF. NO CHANGE IN TEMPS. FCSTID
24 OKC 53 70 48 74 / 90 40 30 10 HBR
52 70 46 74 / 70 20 0 10 SPS 56 73 49
77 / 80 20 10 10 GAG 47 65 41 69 / 70
30 10 10 PNC 52 69 45 72 / 90 40 30
10 DUA 51 76 52 78 / 90 50 30 10
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE NORMAN OK 1204 PM CDT SUN APR 7
2002 .THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK... THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. .LOCATION... THE
MODERATE RISK IS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CROWELL
TO ARCHER CITY. THE SLIGHT RISK IS GENERALLY WEST
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALVA...TO CHICKASHA...TO
MADILL. .TIMING... ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALREADY OCCURRING...THE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS
EXPECTED FROM AROUND 3 PM THROUGH MID EVENING. IN
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
.DISCUSSION... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN WIDESPREAD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL
PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND THE ASSOCIATED
CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AIRMASS COOL
AND RELATIVELY STABLE. HOWEVER...SKIES MAY
PARTIALLY CLEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. IF THIS CLEARING
OCCURS... ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING COMBINED
WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA. .OTHER HAZARDOUS
WEATHER... HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING IN SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT /WGUS64 KOUN OR
OKCFFAOKC/ FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
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Mesoscale Convective Discussion
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0324 FOR RED RIVER
REGION OF OK/TX CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL... WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL TX/SRN OK ALONG THE
RED RIVER. PARTIAL CLEARING IS AIDING
DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF SLOWLY RETREATING WARM
FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY FROM STONEWALL COUNTY TO
THROCKMORTON COUNTY...WITH GRADUAL
NWD DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT NEAR SFC-BASED
SUPERCELLS WILL SPREAD NORTH OF WARM FRONT WITH
VERY LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES.
FARTHER NORTH INTO OK...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF LARGE SCALE FORCING WITH LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO ENHANCE ELEVATED
DEEP CONVECTION/LARGE HAIL THREAT.
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Surface Maps and Radar Reflectivity