CLIMATE FUTURES FORUM

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CLIMATE FUTURES FORUM
University of Oregon Climate Leadership Initiative
ROGUE RIVER BASIN
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FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE CHANGE FUTURES PROJECT
Built Systems
Human Systems
Natural Systems
Economic Systems
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CLIMATE FUTURES FORUMS - PILOT BASINS
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WORKSHOP PRODUCTS
NATURAL SYSTEMS WORKSHOP IDENTIFIES

• Stressors
• Vulnerable Buffered Areas
• Strategies to Build Resistance/Resilience
• Policy Recommendations
• Research Data Needs

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NATURAL SYSTEMS WHITE PAPER
BUILT, HUMAN, ECONOMIC SYSTEMS WORKSHOP
INTEGRATED ROGUE BASIN PREPARATION STRATEGY
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WORKSHOP GOALS
Human Systems
Built Systems
Economic Systems
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• Predict range of impacts for Natural, Human,
  Built, and Economic Systems in the Rogue Basin
• Identify strategies and policies for increasing
  resistance and resilience to prepare for climate
  change
• Identify scientific data gaps, research needs and
  monitoring processes to direct further inquiry
  and measure success

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MODEL OUTPUTS AT BASIN-SCALE Time Series Graphs
Average Monthly Snow Accumulation Across the
Rogue Basin
Baseline (1961-1990) vs 2075-2085 Averages

• Temperature
• Ave Annual
• Ave Monthly
• Precipitation
• Annual Sum
• Ave Monthly Sum
• Ave Monthly Snow Accumulation
• Average Monthly Snow Melt
• Annual Stream Flow
• Fire
• Annual Sum Vegetation Carbon
• Annual Sum Biomass Consumed by Fire
• Area within Rogue in Specific Vegetation Type

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MODEL OUTPUTS AT BASIN-SCALE Spatial Maps

• Mean Temperature
• Spring
• Summer
• Fall
• Winter
• Mean Precipitation
• Spring
• Summer
• Fall
• Winter
• Vegetation
• Fire
• Proportion Burned
• Biomass Consumed

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Baseline
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TEMPERATURE
Annual Average Temperature Across the Rogue Basin
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Annual Average 2040 1F to 3F 2080 4F to
8F Summer Average 2040 4F to 6F 2080
7F to 15F Winter Average 2080 3F to 6F
The Rogue River Basin is likely to see regional
increases slightly above the global average
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AQUATIC SPECIES HABITAT RISKS

• Problem Increased and extended summer
  temperatures coupled with extended periods of
  lowered summer base flows
• Decreased dissolved oxygen
• Increased incidence of bacteria and disease
• Leading to More frequent lethal instream
  conditions
• (fish kills) and an expansion of non-native
  invasive species

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• Problem More intense storms and fires
• Increased sediment and nutrient loads
• Decline in water quality
• Leading to Reduced recruitment of young native
  fishes into the adult population

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AQUATIC SPECIES HABITAT RISKS

• Problem Shifts in timing of stream flows
• Earlier emergence of aquatic insects
• Shifts in timing of adult spawning migration and
  smolt outmigration
• Leading to Potential disconnect between timing
  of salmon and steelhead life history stages and
  availability of food sources unusual commingling
  of species

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• Problem Increased late fall, winter, and spring
• precipitation more intense storm events
• Reduction in channel complexity (downcutting to
  bedrock,
• loss of riparian vegetation, streambank
  erosion, disconnect
• between stream and floodplain/riparian
  forest/wetlands)
• Decline in water quality
• Leading to Reduction in stream carrying
  capacity, exacerbation of flood and drought
  impacts compounding of the effects of increased
  air temperatures contraction and drying of
  headwater streams increase in flashiness

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AQUATIC SPECIES HABITAT RISKS

• Areas Most Susceptible to Climate Impacts
• Headwater streams
• High Cascade spring systems
• Reaches where past management has increased
• susceptibility to disturbance
• South and west facing headwater areas
• Bedrock reaches
• Reaches with particularly steep topography
• Low gradient bedrock reaches

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• Areas Most Resistant and Resilient
• Reaches with gravel and subsurface flows
• Areas with intact floodplains and limited human
  footprint
• Tributary junctions

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TERRESTRIAL SPECIES HABITAT RISKS
Problem Increased temperatures, drought stress,
and changes in vegetation Leading to Increase
in incidence of diseases and pests (e.g.,
expanded oak distribution and climate stresses
leading to outbreak of Sudden Oak Syndrome)
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Problem Changes in plant growth, flowering, and
fruiting times Leading to Disruption of
traditional relationships for migration,
breeding, and flowering
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TERRESTRIAL SPECIES HABITAT RISKS

• Problem Increased incidence of fire, longer fire
  season, greater biomass burned, higher elevation
  fires fast rate of climate change
• Reduced dispersal/colonization time
• Increased invasive species and pest issues
• Leading to Sudden shifts disrupting ecological
• communities, disproportionate impacts on mature
• forest species decline in abundance and vitality
  of native species

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Problem Decline in abundance and vitality of
native species fast rate of climate
change Leading to Increased invasive species
and pest issues
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TERRESTRIAL SPECIES HABITAT RISKS

• Areas Most Susceptible to Climate Impacts
• Species with small ranges and/or lack of
  mobility (e.g., amphibians)
• Rare habitats
• High elevation wildlife, especially species
  dependant on high
• wetlands and meadows (e.g., water vole,
  American Pipit, etc.)
• High elevation vegetation (e.g., hemlock and
  some wildflowers)

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• Areas/Species Most Resistant and Resilient
• Chaparral, grasslands, scrublands likely to
  increase in prominence
• Drought-tolerant and fire-resistant species,
  including oak, madrone,
• silktassel, mountain mahogany, tanoak

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RECOMMENDATIONS from the Natural Systems Workshop

• AQUATIC SCIENTISTS
• Restore and maintain
• Floodplains
• Tributary junctions
• North-facing streams
• Reaches with gravels and high topographic
  complexity
• Channel complexity and remove passage barriers
• High elevation riparian areas
• Manage urban, septic, road runoff
• Manage fisheries to maintain genetic and life
  history diversity

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RECOMMENDATIONS from the Natural Systems Workshop

• TERRESTRIAL SCIENTISTS
• Minimize existing stressors, including
• Forest conversion
• Riparian/floodplain development
• Habitat fragmentation
• Wildland/interface road construction
• Pollutants
• Loss of keystone species
• Introduction of exotic species
• Increase forest function, diversity and
  resistance to fire
• Focus forest management on maintaining genetic
  diversity
• and ecological integrity
• Maintain existing intact areas (e.g., old
  growth, unroaded areas)
• Identify, restore, protect areas that provide
  critical ecosystem

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WHAT SHOULD BE DONE?
BUILDING RESISTANCE Pushing back against the
effects of climate change
BUILDING RESILIENCE Bouncing back and recovering
from climate change impacts

PREPARATION Getting ready for climate changes
Ecologically Sound Approaches to building
resistance Increase the sponge
(floodplain restoration)
Ecologically Sound Approaches to building
resilience Increase functional
diversity Increase connectivity
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PREPARE THE LAND TO HELP
Functional Floodplains Serve As a
Sponge (Floodplains soak up flood waters and
release them slowly)
Constrained Floodplains Exacerbate the Effects of
Floods and Droughts
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MALADAPTIVE RESPONSES LOGGING DAMS
EXACERBATE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE REDUCE
RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE
Climate Change
Building Dams
Logging
More variable flows Less connected Warmer
water Erosion Simplified channel
More variable flows Warmer water Erosion Simplifi
ed channel
Less connected Warmer water Simplified channel
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From Hydrologist Kyle Dittmer Climate Change
Impacts on Columbia Basin (May 2008 Presentation)

• Most at risk basins Umatilla and Yakima have 85
  of land below 4000 ft. elevation
• 1.5 deg. F increase in night time temp.
• 1.3 deg. F increase in daytime temp.
• 2 increase in precipitation (0.4 in.)
• Flow peaks 14.2 days sooner
• Spring/summer flow drops by 24

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WHAT IS THE FUTURE FOR THE UMATILLA
BASIN? Change in Mean Monthly Temperature
(Degrees C) 2070-2099 vs. 1961-1990

• Pre-industrial 275 ppm
• 1958 315 ppm
• 2000 367 ppm
• 3 increase/year

MIROC
HAD
A2 (Business as Usual) Emissions Scenario
CSIRO
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Percent Change in Precipitation 2070-2099 vs
1961-1990
A2
B1
MIROC
HAD
CSIRO
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Drought and Fire in the West (Simulated Fire, no
Fire Suppression)
Interdecadal Climate Regime Shifts
1976 - 77
1988 - 89
1940s
1983
1998
El Niño
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A2
B1
MIROC3_MEDRES
HADCM3
CSIRO_MK3
percent
Percent Change Biomass consumed by Fire 2051-2100
vs. 1951-2000.
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PNW Vegetation Changes

• Subtropical forest (mixed pines and hardwoods,
  madrones, and evergreen oaks light green on map)
  replace maritime evergreen needleleaf (coastal
  spruce and fir dark green on map) west of
  Cascades
• Increase in grasslands (orange on map) and
  decrease in shrublands (violet on map) east of
  Cascades
• Temperate evergreen needleleaf (fir and ponderosa
  pine savannahs lightest green on map) remain
  east of Cascades

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Policy Recommendations F from Rogue Human,
Built, Economic Workshop

• Account for climate change in all land-use
  planning
• Use disaster funds to relocate buildings from
  hazard areas (flood and fire)
• Expand public transportation systems
• Implement water and energy efficiency measures
  in all sectors
• Integrate preparation strategies across all
  sectors to avoid preparation in one sector
  negatively impacting others

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