The Challenge of Climate Change: Implications for Energy Security

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The Challenge of Climate Change Implications for
Energy Security
Accenture Energy Advisory Board

• Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., USN
  (Ret.)
• Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and
  Atmosphere
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
• October 16, 2007
• Calgary, Alberta

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Menu

• U.S. Climate Science, Technology, and Policy
• State of the Science
• U.S. Climate Initiatives
• 20 in 10 Plan
• Climate Change Technology Program
• Energy Policy Act of 2005
• Advanced Energy Initiative
• 110th Congress

• Post-Kyoto Framework New International
  Directions
• Major Economies Meeting
• UNFCCC and the Montreal Protocol
• Technology Transfer
• Adaptation Strategies
• GEOSS

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State of the Science

• Bottom Line there is general scientific
  agreement that anthropogenic activities are
  increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas
  concentrations and driving climate change.
• Areas of Uncertainty
• Sensitivity of global systems to increased GHG
  emissions
• Impacts of identified regional climate changes
• Timing of impacts and rate of changes
• Magnitude of changes and impacts at specific
  scales
• Research research is crucial to understanding
  the impacts of climate change and guiding public
  policy.
• Climate Change Science ProgramWorlds largest
  climate science research Program. Funded at
  approximately 1.7 billion/year (10.7 Billion
  2002-2006).

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U.S. Climate Initiatives

• 20 in 10
• Reduce U.S. gasoline consumption by 20 in 10
  years
• Promote alternative fuels
• Increase CAFE standards
• Climate Change Technology Program
• Multi-agency research and development program
  funded at approximately 3 billion/year
• Goals include
• Reducing emissions from energy use and supply
• Capturing and sequestering CO2
• Improving capability to measure monitor GHG

• Energy Policy Act of 2005
• 10 billion in clean technology tax incentives
• Requires use of 7.5 billion gallons of renewable
  fuel (ethanol and biodiesel) to be used in
  gasoline by 2012
• Provides 30 tax credit for installation of
  alternative fuel stations (up to 30,000/year).
• Federal Energy Management Plan
• Federal Government is the largest energy consumer
  in U.S.
• Plan promotes energy efficiency and use of
  renewable energy resources at federal sites.

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U.S. Climate InitiativesAdvanced Energy
Initiative
Two pronged approach (1) change the way vehicles
are fueled and (2) change the way homes and
businesses are powered.

• Fueling Vehicles
• Develop advanced battery technology for plug-in
  electric hybrid vehicles (40 mile range solely on
  battery charge)
• Make cellulosic ethanol competitive with
  corn-based ethanol by 2012
• Make hydrogen fuel cell vehicles widely available
  by 2020.

• Powering Homes Businesses
• Clean coal technology
• FutureGen public-private partnership to develop
  technologies for coal-fired power plants that
  capture and store CO2, rather than release it
  into the atmosphere
• Develop a Global Nuclear Energy Partnership, and
  improve the domestic regulatory process
• Reduce the cost of solar and other renewable
  energy sources.
• Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion
• Hydrokinetic
• Offshore wind

Hydrokinetic Generator Kinetic Energy Systems
Offshore Wind FarmNantucket
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Climate Bills in the 110th Congress
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Stabilization Triangle
Source Carbon Mitigation Initiative, The
Stabilization Triangle Tackling the Carbon and
Climate Problem With Todays Technologies.
Available at http//www.summits.ncat.org/docs/Wedg
es_Concept_Game_Materials_2005.pdf
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How Big is a Gigaton?Using Todays Technology,
These Actions Can Cut Emissions by 1 GtC/Year
Todays Technology Actions that Provide 1 Gigaton / Year of Mitigation
Coal-Fired Power Plants Build 1,000 zero-emission 500-MW coal-fired power plants (in lieu of coal-fired plants without CO2 capture and storage)
Geologic Sequestration Install 3,700 sequestration sites like Norways Sliepner project (0.27 MtC/year)
Nuclear Build 500 new nuclear power plants, each 1 GW in size (in lieu of new coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage)
Efficiency Deploy 1 billion new cars at 40 miles per gallon (mpg) instead of 20 mpg
Wind Energy Install capacity to produce 50 times the current global wind generation (in lieu of coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage)
Solar Photovoltaics Install capacity to produce 1,000 times the current global solar PV generation (in lieu of coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage)
Biomass fuels from plantations Convert a barren area about 15 times the size of Iowas farmland (about 30 million acres) to biomass crop production
CO2 Storage in New Forest Convert a barren area about 30 times the size of Iowas farmland to new forest
Giga-Tonnes 109 Metric-Tonnes (1000
Kilograms) See CCTP Strategic Plan p. 38.
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The Post-Kyoto FrameworkNew International
Directions
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The Future of International Climate Policy

• President Bushs Vision has 3 Components
• Create post-2012 framework among major economies
  by the end of 2008
• Strengthen U.N. climate initiatives
• Advance global adoption of clean energy
  technologies
• The new direction in climate policy must enhance
  energy security and promote economic development.

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Post-Kyoto FrameworkMajor Economies Meeting

• 17 major economies represented, including the
  U.N.
• Launched process to identify long-term global GHG
  emissions reduction goals (e.g., 2050).
• Discussed commitments to national mid-term goals
  with binding elements (e.g., 2020,
  2030), according to national circumstances.
• Each country to establish its own targets, goals,
  and programs that are binding
  domestically.
• Discussed need to harmonize emission measurement
  and accounting systems.
• Participants focused on five key areas low
  carbon fossil power generation, transportation,
  land use, market penetration and energy
  efficiency, and finance.

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Post-Kyoto FrameworkMajor Economies Meeting

• Key Points for a long-term GHG reduction goal
• Guided by Article 2 of the UNFCCC
• Science-based
• Underpinned by environmentally effective and
  measurable near- and mid-term actions
• Take into account countries differing
  circumstances and common but differentiated
  responsibilities and capabilities
• Understand the future availability of key low
  carbon technologies, and the feasibility of
  delivering technologies at different scales and
  time periods
• Take into account the costs of adaptation in the
  context of broader development strategies.
• Take into account historical cumulative
  emissions, per capita emissions, and development
  needs of developing countries.
• Next Steps
• The participants agreed that there is value in
  convening another meeting of Major Economies
  after the U.N. climate meetings in Bali.

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Post-Kyoto FrameworkUNFCCC The Montreal
Protocol

• Conference of the Parties in Bali, December 2007
• Report outcome of Major Economies Meeting
• New MEM Framework will Reinforce Existing Work
  Programs in the U.N.
• Land Use
• Sustainable forest and agricultural management,
  stop deforestation and illegal logging
• Adaptation
• Build on international development principles
• Technology Sharing and Energy Efficiency
• Tools to open and accelerate markets for
  technology
• Montreal Protocol
• Parties recently agreed to accelerate deadlines
  for phasing out HCFCs.

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Post-Kyoto FrameworkInternational Partnerships
Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum focused on
CO2 capture storage. International Partnership
for the Hydrogen Economy organizes, coordinates,
and leverages hydrogen RD programs. Generation
IV International Forum devoted to RD on next
generation of nuclear systems. ITER project to
develop fusion as a commercial energy
source. Methane to Markets recovery and use of
methane from landfills, mines, oil and gas
systems, and agriculture. Asia-Pacific
Partnership on Clean Development Climate
accelerates deployment of technologies to address
energy security, air pollution, and climate
change. Global Bioenergy Partnership Italian G8
initiative to support wider, cost effective,
biomass and biofuels deployment, particularly in
developing countries. Global Nuclear Energy
Partnership U.S. initiative to develop worldwide
consensus on enabling expanded use of economical,
carbon-free nuclear energy to meet growing
electricity demand, using a nuclear fuel cycle
that enhances energy security and promotes
non-proliferation.
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Post-Kyoto FrameworkTechnology Transfer

• Developing Nations Must be Part of the New
  Equation!
• Develop Transformational Technology
• Increase global RD funding and cooperation
• Expand Low-Cost Finance Options
• Focus existing development resources and private
  resources
• Consider new low-cost capital sources to finance
  investment in transformational technologies
  (e.g., development banks, OPIC)
• Transfer Technology Globally
• Eliminate tariffs and remove non-tariff barriers
  to cleaner energy and environmental technologies
  and services
• Launch global effort to share government-developed
  and owned technologies at low or no cost

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Government Energy RD in Selected Industrialized
Countries,1974-2004
Source U.S. Department of Energy, Energy
Information Administration
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Post-Kyoto FrameworkAdaptation Strategies

• It may be too late to avoid dangerous climate
  changereducing carbon dioxide emissions is part
  of the solution. Another part is adaptation, but
  we haven't addressed that.
• Claude Mandil, Former IEA Executive Director
• The worlds climate will continue to change for
  the next 50 years, regardless of any mitigating
  efforts we make now.
• The lag in the climate system makes adaptation
  essential, particularly in addressing near-term
  impacts.
• Sound adaptation policies must rest on sound
  science. We need better data for better decision
  making.

CarbonTracker
El Nino Forecast
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Global Earth Observation System of Systems
(GEOSS)

• 71 Member Countries the European Commission
• 46 International Organizations
• A distributed system of systems
• Improves coordination of observation systems
• Links all platforms in situ, aircraft, and
  satellite networks
• Identifies gaps in our global capacity
• Facilitates exchange of data and information
• Improves decision-makers abilities to address
  pressing policy issues
• GEONetCast
• Worldwide information distribution

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Why Earth Observations?

• Prediction
• Worldwide agricultural benefits of better El Niño
  forecasts are conservatively estimated at
  450-550 million/year
• Annual costs of electricity could decrease by 1
  billion if we could improve the accuracy of
  weather forecasts by one degree Fahrenheit.
  (Source USA Today)
• Prevention
• More than 90 of natural disaster-related deaths
  occur in developing countries.
• Preparedness
• More than 50 of the worlds population lives
  within 60 km of the shoreline this could rise to
  75 by the year 2020.

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The Path Forward

• Economic growth, sustainable development, energy
  security, and climate change can and must be
  pursued in an integrated manner. Therefore, we
  need
• A visionary long-term approach, based on
  innovation, growth, and international
  cooperation
• Leadership from developed nations and meaningful
  participation from developing nations
• A variety of near-term actions, augmented by
  financial incentives
• Increased investment in clean energy technology
  and
• A recognition that one size wont fit all
  national/regional strategies are needed.

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Questions?
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Additional Slides
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World CO2 Emissions2003-2030
Source Energy Information Administration, 2006
International Energy Outlook
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Energy Market Share by Source
Source Energy Information Administration, at
http//www.eia.doe.gov\basics\energybasics101.html
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Energy Consumption By Sector
Source Energy Information Administration, at
http//www.eia.doe.gov\basics\energybasics101.html
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U.S. Energy Trends Through 2030

• Projected Population Increase 23
• Projected Energy Consumption Increase 31
• Biofeuls and other nonhydroelectric renewables
  projected to grow rapidly
• Sales of alternative vehicle technologies will
  account for nearly 28 of new light duty vehicle
  sales
• However, oil, coal, and natural gas still
  projected to supply 86 of U.S. energy in 2030
• Imports of energy will constitute 32 of total
  U.S. energy demand

Source Energy Information Administrations
Annual Energy Outlook 2007 (AEO2007). These
projections are from the reference case, which
assumes that current energy policies impacting
the sector remain unchanged throughout the
analysis period. See http//www.eia.doe.gov/
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CostPotential 100-Year Reductions
Comparative Analysis of Estimated Cumulative
Costs Over the 21st Century of GHG Mitigation,
With and Without Advanced Technology, Across a
Range of Hypothesized GHG Emissions Constraints
Source Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
(DOE), Climate Change Mitigation An Analysis
of Advanced Technology Scenarios. Available at
http//www.globalchange.umd.edu/data/publications/
CCTP_Final_Report_041007.pdf
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Scale of Biomass Land Area
Land Use Scenario 550 ppmv
From Global Energy Technology Strategy,
Addressing Climate Change Phase 2 Findings from
an International Public-Private Sponsored
Research Program, Battelle Memorial Institute,
2007. Land Use Scenario with 0.5 annual
agricultural activity growth