for Rural Development Strategy update of The World Bank

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for Rural Development Strategy update of The
World Bank
FAO Global Farming Systems Study HIGHLIGHTS

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Contributors
Contributors

• S. Funes (SDA)
• J. Dixon (AGS), A. Gulliver (TCI) and D. Gibbon
• D. Forbes Watt (TCI), J. Monyo (AGS), D. Baker
  (AGS), A. MacMillan (TCI), C. Csaki (RDV/WB), S.
  Barghouti (RDV/WB)
• Regional analysis team leaders AFR -- A.
  Carloni MNA D. Gibbon ECA S. Tanic F.
  Dauphin SAS J. Weatherhogg, J. Dixon K.
  DAlwis EAP D. Ivory and LAC A. Gulliver,
  J. de Grandi, C. Spehar G. Majella
• More than 50 other professionals, including FAO
  HQ and regional office from various disciplines
  and Departments staff who contributed text and
  data, reviewed and edited

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Outline
Outline of Presentation

• Rationale
• Approach of study
• Overall setting and trends
• An example region -- Africa
• Overall strategic priorities and operational
  implications
• Ways forward

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Rationale -- RDS
World Bank Rural Development Strategy -- why
update ?

• World Bank lending to agriculture has fallen to
  a historic low
• Provide an overall guide to rebuild the
  commitment to rural development
• Encompass a more holistic view of rural
  development
• Respond to new global and regional developments,
  and lessons learned over the past several years
• Enhance collaboration and partnership with
  client countries and donors

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Rationale -- FSS
Why did the Bank request a Farming Systems Study?

• Establish a frame of reference for agriculture
  component of rural development strategy
• Identify key major farming systems for reduction
  of hunger and poverty
• Identify trends in major farming systems until
  2030
• Identify emerging constraints and opportunities
  and related strategic priorities for reduction of
  poverty and hunger (for major farming systems,
  for developing regions and for developing world)

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Study approach
Study approach

• Expert driven meta-analysis, supplemented by
  AT2015/30 projections and GIS data.
• Identify global and regional factors co-evolving
  with farming systems.
• Identify and map broad farming systems -- 72 in
  6 regions, based on livelihood patterns, which
  depend on AEZ irrigationsocio-economic
  conditions.
• Identify trends, constraints, opportunities and
  strategic priorities (for 3-5 principal farming
  systems in each region, and for the region).
• More than 20 case studies to illustrate key
  points.
• Identify overall strategic priorities and overall
  operational implications.

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Setting
Analytical framework

• Analytical process
• World -gt region -gt farming system -gt region -gt
  world
• Five determinants of farming systems
• INTERNAL
• Natural resources climate
• Technologies science
• EXTERNAL
• Globalisation markets
• Policies, institutions public goods
• Information human capital
• Global setting
• Under-nutrition
• Poverty

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Undernourishment -- regional distribution and
trend
Agriculture Towards 2015/30Technical Interim
Report
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Poverty
Poverty -- regional distribution trend
People consuming less than US1 a day millions
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Poverty
Poverty -- rural vs urban
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Global Trends
Global Trends influencing Farming Systems
Development

• Natural Resources increasing pressure,
  degradation, climate change, etc
• Science Technology -- declining capacity,
  roles of public and private, etc
• Globalisation Markets spreading, etc
• Policies, Institutions and Public Goods
  declining incentives, decentralisation, reducing
  public goods, etc
• Information Human Capital -- expanding, etc

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Absolute increments in production
Agriculture Towards 2015/30Technical Interim
Report
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Sources of growth all developing countries
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Technology
Productive technologies
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Markets
Food prices and per capita availability
Global Index of Food per Capita and Food Prices,
1959 - 1997
Source IFPRI WRI, 2001
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Results
Highlights of Results

• Six (World Bank) regions and Global Overview
• AFR, MNA, ECA, SAS, EAP, LAC Global
• Example of AFR (Sub-Saharan Africa)
• 49 countries, total pop 626 m, agric pop 384 m
• Agric -gt 20 of GDP, 67 of employment (esp. for
  poor)
• 15 farming systems, of which 5 systems with
  growth and poverty reduction potential analysed

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Africa
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AFR farming systems
AFR -- farming systems

• Irrigated Farming System (F S )
• Tree-crop F S
• Forest based F S
• Rice-tree crop F S
• Highland perennial F S
• Highland temperate mixed F S
• Root crop F S
• Cereal-root crop F S
• Maize mixed F S
• Large commercial smallholder F S
• Agro-pastoral millet/sorghum F S
• Pastoral F S
• Sparse (arid) F S
• Coastal artisanal fishing F S
• Urban based F S
• (Underlined farming systems analysed in depth)

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AFR Irrigated F S
AFR Irrigated Farming System (highlights)

• Large scale schemes. 7 farm million people.
• (Also scattered small scale irrigation and water
  control schemes)
• High investment cost. Low performance.
• High growth potential (expansion and
  intensification), especially small scale and
  water harvesting
• Priorities for large schemes. Pricing. WUAs.
  Parastatal management. Modernise support
  services.
• Priorities for SSI. Farmers groups and
  associations. MFI.

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AFR Tree-crop F S
AFR Tree-crop Farming System

• West Central Africa. 25 million farm people. 10
  million ha cultivated and perennial crops. 2
  million cattle.
• Cocoa, coffee, oil palm, food crops (migrant
  labourers).
• Population pressure, declining prices, dismantled
  service provision parastatals, tree crop
  owner-worker conflict.
• High growth and poverty reduction potential.
• Priorities. Focus on improvement of support
  services. Product quality upgrading.
  Diversification. Producer groups for services and
  marketing. MFI. Market information.

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AFR Maize mixed F S
AFR Maize Mixed Farming System

• East Southern Africa. 60 million farm people.
  32 million ha cultivated. 36 million cattle.
• Local and hybrid maize, pulses, oilseeds, coffee,
  tobacco, groundnuts, cattle, off-farm work.
• Declining price ratios, declining soil fertility,
  population pressure, poor effectiveness of
  top-down.
• Good medium-long term growth and poverty
  reduction potentials.
• Priorities. Technology for soil fertility
  management and land husbandry. IPM. Zero
  tillage. Fallow enrichment. Market development.
  Diversification.

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AFR Cereal-root crop F S
AFR Cereal-root crop Farming System

• West Central Africa moist savanna. 59 million
  farm people. 31 million ha cultivated. 43
  million cattle.
• Maize, yams, cassava, sorghum, cotton, pulses,
  oilseeds, cattle, off-farm work.
• Declining input-output price ratios, soil
  fertility decline, Striga, weak support services.
• High growth potential through area expansion and
  intensification.
• Priorities. Conservation agriculture. IPM.
  Crop-livestock integration. Diversification.
  Farmer groups for inputs and marketing.

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AFR Agro-pastoral sorghum/millet F S
Agro-pastoral sorghum/millet Farming System

• Africa-wide in semiarid areas. 33 million farm
  people. 22 million ha cultivated. 25 million
  cattle.
• Sorghum, pearl millet, sesame, pulses, cattle,
  camels, small ruminants, off-farm work linkages
  to higher potential farming systems.
• Population pressure, droughts, declining soil
  fertility, lack of grazing areas.
• Modest growth and poverty reduction potential.
• Priorities. Reduction of crop failure through
  early varieties and water harvesting, improved
  land husbandry, strategic forage reserves, crop
  residues for livestock, disease control and
  improved poultry, farmer groups.

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AFR Regional Strategic priorities
AFR Regional strategic priorities

• Sustainable land management, good land husbandry
• Small scale irrigation, water harvesting, drought
  tolerant varieties
• Market based land reforms, investment in public
  goods such as tsetse eradication
• Diversification to non-traditional export crops,
  pest and weed control practices, livestock
  disease control
• Agricultural information and farmer training

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Intensification
Overall Levels of intensification of farming
systems

• I Low intensity, land labour resource
  based, food crop based, usually predominance of
  traditional technologies
•  Drivers Population, Technology
• II a Medium intensity, land resource
  technology based, limited improved land
  management, mixed crop-livestock integration
  and/or diversified
• Drivers Population, Resources, Technology
• II b Medium intensity, resource technology
  based, cash crop based, low diversity, high
  market integration
•  Drivers Technology, Markets, Services (incl.
  infrastructure)

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Intensification
Overall Levels of intensification of farming
systems (cont)

• III High intensity, technology and market
  based, significant integration
• Drivers Technology, Markets, Services (incl.
  Infrastructure)
• IV a Very high intensity, high on-farm
  integration, technology, market and
  information-based
• Drivers Services, Information/knowledge
• IV b Very high intensity, specialised,
  vertically integrated, market and
  information-based,
• Drivers Information/knowledge

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Strategic priorities -- NRM
Overall cross-cutting strategic
priorities Achieving sustainable and productive
natural resource management

• Sustainable natural resource management
• Recapitalisation of soil fertility
• Water resources management
• Capacity to respond to climate change

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Strategic priorities -- technologies
Overall -- deploying science and technology for
poverty reduction

• Pro-poor technologies
• Participatory RD
• Land and labour productivity in high potential
  areas
• Labour productivity in low potential areas
• Biotechnology with safeguards

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Strategic priorities -- markets
Overall -- exploiting globalisation and market
development

• Smallholder focus on labour intensive or niche
  market produce
• Household food security needs must be satisfied
  first
• Support private sector development
• Create enabling environment for market
  development

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Strategic priorities -- policies
Overall -- refocusing policies, institutions and
public goods

• Resource user rights -- equitable, secure,
  transferable
• Infrastructure -- accessible to poor, sustainable
• Irrigation expansion -- focus on small-scale
  farmer managed
• Continue agricultural policy reforms and
  strengthen meso-level institutions
• Targeted safety nets

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Strategic priorities -- information
Overall-- enhancing agricultural information and
human capital

• Agricultural information, wide availability,
  especially to poor smallholders
• Broad training, systems-oriented, for
  professionals and farmers

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Changing scenarios
Implications of changing scenarios

• Faster global warming
• Faster trade liberalisation
• Faster AIDS pandemic (AFR, SAS?)

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Operational Implications
Overall -- some operational implications

• Emphasising demand driven approaches to IRD
• (participatory systems farmer-led learning
  gender youth)
• Re-engineering support services and related
  institutions
• (integrated support services decentralisation
  
• stakeholder fora)
• Broadening the range of financing instruments
• (new instruments competitive grants)
• Assessing the impact of policy and
  institutional changes using global and national
  farming systems frameworks

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Study Products
Study Products

• Available now at World Bank website
• http//www.worldbank.org/
• essd/rdv/vta.nsf/Gweb/Farming
• Synthesis and Global Overview
• Regional Analyses (six, one per region), and
  case studies
• Maps (5 per region)
• Available soon at FAO website
• all reports and 14 maps/region
• Available end-June
• expanded and updated
• Synthesis and Global Overview

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Ways forward
Feedback?

• Good feedback from World Bank
• and stakeholders in the regions
• Ways Forward?
• National rural development strategies
• PRSPs, CAS, investment targeting
• National statistics and impact assessment
• Framing FAO Regular Programme and projects