Presentation of Julia Slingo University of Reading' From "Applied Climate Modeling," Breakout Sessio

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Grand Challenge modelling in the UK Natural
Environment Research Council (NERC)
UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTING CLIMATE VARIABILITY
IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE Julia
Slingo Director, Centre for Global Atmospheric
Modelling, University of Reading
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Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling

• To understand and simulate the highly non-linear
  dynamics and feedbacks of the global climate
  system
• To exploit the revolution in seasonal to
  interannual prediction as a test bed of climate
  models and as a vehicle for fostering integrated
  applications
• To capitalize on and develop NERC expertise in
  earth system science
• To harness the expected increases in computer
  power and the opportunities provided by e-science
  to perform higher resolution, more comprehensive
  integrations of the earth system.
• CGAM works closely with the Hadley Centre and
  uses its state-of-the-art coupled model as its
  prime research tool. Integration of UK climate
  research activities is vital for future progress.

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NERC Natural Environment Research Council

• UK lead responsibility for developing, funding
  and delivering environmental science
• To prioritise and deliver world-class
  environmental sciences to understand the Earth
  System.
• Supports research, training and environmental
  observations across all components of the earth
  system
• Uses a whole system approach to earth system
  science to find sustainable solutions to
  environmental problems.

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NERCs New Strategy Science for a Sustainable
Future

• Earths Life-Support Systems Water,
  biogeochemical cycles and biodiversity
• Climate Change Predicting and mitigating the
  impacts
• Sustainable Economies Identifying and providing
  sustainable solutions to the challenges
  associated with energy, land use and hazard
  mitigation

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NERC supports scientists within Universities and
at its major core research centres

• British Antarctic Survey (BAS)
• British Geological Survey (BGS)
• Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH)
• Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory (POL)
• Southampton Oceanography Centre (SOC)
• Centre for Terrestrial Carbon Dynamics (CTCD)

• NERC Centres for Atmospheric Science (NCAS)
• Environmental Systems Science Centre (ESSC)
• Data Assimilation Research Centre (DARC)
• Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
• National Institute for Environmental e-Science
  (NIEeS)
• Centre for Polar Observations and Modelling (CPOM)

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Centres and Facilities

• Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling (CGAM)
  Climate processes, variability and change
• Atmospheric Chemistry Modelling Support Unit
  (ACMSU) Chemistry-Climate modelling and
  interactions
• Universities Weather and Environment Research
  Network (UWERN) High impact weather
• Distributed Institute for Atmospheric Composition
  (DIAC) Laboratory and field studies of processes
  in the chemical and physical environment.
• British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC)
• University Facilities for Atmospheric
  Measurements (UFAM)
• Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements
  (FAAM)

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Seasonal forecasts provide an excellent test-bed
for coupled models, analogous to the role played
by NWP in the development of AGCMs. They provide
the scientific underpinning for predictions of
anthropogenic climate change.
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Modular Earth System Modelling A new approach for
modelling and understanding the coupled system
DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEMS
REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL
IMPACTS MODELS Crops, water resources
COUPLER
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY
BIO- GEO- CHEMISTRY
The core of the model is the coupler which
exchanges information between different
components of the earth system.
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• An Infrastructure Project for
• Climate Research in Europe

• Involves current state-of-the-art atmosphere,
  ocean, sea-ice, atmospheric chemistry,
  land-surface and ocean-biogeochemistry models
• 22 partners leading climate researchers and
  computer vendors
• Ultimate objective Distributed European
  network for Earth System Modelling
• See http//prism.enes.org

• PRISM will
• Coordinate European Climate Modelling efforts
• Create a European service and management
  infrastructure for European wide,
  multi-institutional climate and Earth System
  simulations
• Develop a European Climate Modelling System
• Portable, efficient and user-friendly based on
  state-of-the-art models
• diagnostics and visualisation

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Application of modular approach Understanding
coupled GCMs
SINTEX HadOPA HadCM3
HadCEM GloSea
HadAM3
ECHAM T30/T42/T106
LMDz
HadOM3 HadOM3 HadGOM
OPA
Common ocean
Common atmosphere
Different resolutions
Intercomparison identify origin of errors
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What controls El Nino in Coupled Climate Models?

• Exchanging ocean models suggests that-
• atmosphere controls the periodicity
• ocean controls the strength of El Nino

BUT the use of a high resolution atmosphere (10)
dramatically improves the temporal behaviour of
El Nino and for the first time provides a more
realistic simulation of the lower frequencies.
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• UK-HIGEM
• Grand Challenge High Resolution Modelling
• of the Global Environment
• To develop a high-resolution version (initially
  10 atmosphere, 0.330 ocean) of the Hadley Centre
  Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and perform a
  multi-century control integration.
• To evaluate the model by stringently testing it
  against observations and more sophisticated, very
  high-resolution models of the component parts.
• To improve our understanding and predictive
  capabilities in global environmental variability
  and change, with particular reference to extreme
  events, interactions between different components
  of the climate system, and the potential for
  climate surprises.
• To provide the modelling framework in which new
  developments in numerical methods and key
  processes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere
  and land can be efficiently incorporated, leading
  to the creation of the next generation global
  environment model
• To provide the background models required for the
  synthesis and interpretation of the wealth of in
  situ and satellite observations of the global
  environment,
• To deliver more robust estimates of the regional
  impacts of climate change required to guide
  government policy.

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Key Components of Grand Challenge Climate
System Modelling

• Modelling hierarchy covering range of space/time
  scales process studies, non-linear scale
  interactions, exploring parameter space but
  there must be traceability
• Advanced computational methods for resolving key
  processes, exploiting high resolution EO data
  nested grids, AMR, super-parametrizations
• Maintaining model diversity and developing model
  complexity modular framework
• Linking with operational activities - NWP,
  seasonal to interannual prediction
• Confronting models with observations developing
  innovative diagnostics
• Integrated assessment allowing feedback from
  climate impacts

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Evolving grid approach Example of application of
adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) to tropopause
fold event. AMR places the resolution where
the situation demands it, in this case around
PV filaments.
Courtesy Dr. N. Nikiforakis, DAMTP
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Improved ocean dynamics and mixing with higher
resolution
Image from 1/80 version of OCCAM Ocean GCM
showing salinity jets at a depth of 100m in the
South Pacific where the South equatorial Current
is blocked by a series of island groups.
See http//www.soc.soton.ac.uk/JRD/OCCAM/