The New Nuclear Danger and What You Can Do About It

1
The New Nuclear Danger and What You Can Do About
It

• Thomas B. Newman, MD, MPH
• Professor of Epidemiology Biostatistics and
  Pediatrics, UCSF

NukesForDPH25Nov05
2
Why I am doing this

• I am scared
• Leave it to the experts, they know what they are
  doing is not an intellectually, morally or
  historically defensible h have skills and a duty
  to anticipate and address threats to public
  health
• I want your help
• If not now, when?

3
Take Home Messages

• 2 quotes
• A few images
• 2 big numbers
• Some discomfort
• 2 article VIs
• 2 approaches

4
Outline/Menu

• Background
• History (Quote 1)
• Physics, what nukes do (Images)
• Stockpiles of weapons and materials (2 big
  numbers)
• The New Danger (Discomfort)
• Nuclear Terrorism
• Loose Fissile Material
• Nuclear Proliferation
• Two Approaches
• Bush administration
• PSR SMART SECURITY (2 Article VIs)

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History of Physicians and Nuclear Weapons

• Hiroshima, Nagasaki 1945
• 1950s AMA supports civil defense, fallout
  shelters
• 1962 PSR formed, NEJM articles, LTBT
• 1980s Victory is Possible, IPPNW formed, PSR
  bombing runs
• 1985 IPPNW wins Nobel Peace Prize Nuclear war
  cannot be won and must never be fought. R.
  Reagan and M. Gorbachev
• 1990s now increasing fear of nuclear
  proliferation and nuclear terrorism

Forrow L, Sidel V. Medicine and Nuclear War From
Hiroshima to Mutual Assured Destruction to
Abolition 2000. JAMA 1998280456-61
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Quote 1

• Since the advent of the Nuclear Age, everything
  has changed save our modes of thinking and we
  thus drift towards unparalleled catastrophe.
• --Albert Einstein

7
Energy in a sugar cube

• Old way of thinking chemical energy
• 5 g x 3.4 kcal/g 17 kcal
• Energy for 10 minutes _at_ 2400 kcal/d
• New way of thinking E mc2
• 5 g x (3 x 1010 cm/sec)2 45 x 1020 ergs 2.15
  x 1010 kcal
• Energy for 123,000 years _at_ 2400 kcal/d
• 21 kilotons

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Explosive yield

• 1 kiloton explosive power of 1000 TONS (2
  million pounds) of TNT
• Hiroshima bomb 13 kilotons
• Oklahoma City bomb 2.2 tons (.002 kilotons)
• 1 megaton 1000 kilotons
• Largest nuclear weapons 20 megatons

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Physics, definitions, terminology

• Fission splitting big atoms like Uranium and
  Plutonium
• Releases huge amount of energy
• Chain reaction that requires critical mass
• Type of bomb used on Hiroshima and Nagasaki
• Fusion joining small atoms (heavy hydrogen) to
  make helium
• Releases even more energy
• Requires lots of energy (fission bomb) to get
  process started

10
10 kiloton bomb Blast effects

• 500 MPH wind (20 PSI) _at_ .4 miles--everything
  leveled
• 160 MPH wind (5 PSI) _at_ 1 mile -- skeletons of
  some buildings, 50 fatalities
• 1 PSI _at_ 2.4 miles -- broken windows and injuries
  to 5-10

http//www.nationalterroralert.com/readyguide/nucl
ear.htm, http//www.johnstonsarchive.net/nuclear/e
ffectstable1.html
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10 kiloton bomb effects Thermal effects

• Creates a giant firestorm with hurricane-force
  winds and average air temperatures above boiling.
• A firestorm would cremate or suffocate people in
  heavily protected shelters.
• Wood, cardboard ignite .8 miles away
• Third degree burns covering 50 of body 1.2 miles
  away

http//www.johnstonsarchive.net/nuclear/index.html
13
Radiation Effects

• Acute Effects Bone marrow most affected
  (bleeding, infections, etc.), then GI tract
  (nausea, vomiting, diarrhea)
• 50 fatality _at_ 0.8 miles

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Effects of radiation

• Fall out -- radioactive dust from the blast
  crater goes into the mushroom cloud and lands
  downwind
• Chronic Effects Cancer, scarring of lungs,
  thyroid diseases, cataracts, birth defects,
  genetic damage

15
Existing weapons
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Dot Chart (2001)
8 dots 1 trident submarine
1 dot 3 megatons Total explosive power from
WW II, including Hiroshima and Nagasaki Total
11,425 megatons almost 2 tons of TNT per person
on the planet
BIG NUMBER 1
http//www.tridentploughshares.org/hb3/part10.php
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The New Danger

• Nuclear terrorism
• Loose fissile material
• Nuclear proliferation

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Americans, think
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We have the right to kill 4 million Americans

• The Americans have still not tasted from our
  hands what we have tasted from theirs. The
  number killed in the World Trade Center and the
  Pentagon were no more than fair exchange for the
  ones killed in the Al-'Amiriya shelter in Iraq,
  and are but a tiny part of the exchange for those
  killed in Palestine, Somalia, Sudan, the
  Philippines, Bosnia, Kashmir, Chechnya, and
  Afghanistan... We have the right to kill 4
  million Americans - 2 million of them children...
  --Suleiman Abu Gheith, Al-Qaida Spokesman

20
Aum Shinrikyo

• Supreme Truth religious cult founded by Shoko
  Asahara
• Peak 9000 members, 1400 monks Japan alone
• Tons of chemicals stockpiled for weapons
• 1995 Sarin attack on a Tokyo subway killed 12 and
  sent 5000 to hospitals
• Sought to obtain uranium for nuclear weapons

21
Apocalyptic Visions

• Massive destruction in the service of various
  visions of purification and renewal
• Common to most religions, extreme ideological
  movements like Communism and Fascism, Timothy
  McVeigh, David Koresh, Aum Shinrikyo

Robert Jay Lifton. The Superpower Syndrome
Americas Apocalyptic Confrontation with the
World. NY Thunders Mouth Press, 2003
22
Fissile Material key ingredient for nuclear
bombs

• Highly enriched uranium or plutonium
• Relatively simple to make it come together as a
  critical mass

23
HEU- Highly Enriched Uranium

• Highly enriched means enriched in U-235, the
  isotope capable of fission
• At least 20 U-235 needed to sustain a nuclear
  reaction
• Critical mass 35 pounds
• World stockpile (end of 2003) 1900 metric tons

Albright D, Kramer K. Fissile Material
Stockpiles still growing. Bull Atomic Sci
2004Nov/Dec14-15
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Plutonium

• Made in nuclear reactors when U-238 absorbs a
  neutron
• Obtained by reprocessing spent fuel rods with
  nitric acid
• Critical mass 9 -33 pounds (depends on
  reflector)
• World stockpile (end of 2003) 1855 Metric Tons

Albright D, Kramer K. Fissile Material
Stockpiles still growing. Bull Atomic Sci
2004Nov/Dec14-15
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Total Fissile material 3750 Metric Tons

• Enough for more than 300,000 Hiroshima-sized
  bombs
• If it is 99.99 secure, that leaves enough for 30
  Hiroshima-sized bombs

BIG NUMBER 2
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Challenges of securing fissile material

• Amount of Plutonium estimated based on ratio of
  Uranium to Plutonium in a sample
• MUF Material Unaccounted For
• The cumulative MUF... was in excess of 400 kg
  plutonium. Such a value is a cause for
  concern...

IPPNW, 1996 Crude nuclear weapons proliferation
and the terrorist threat. Avail at
http//www.ippnw.org/IPPNWBooks.htmlCrude
http//www.dnfsb.gov/pub_docs/hanford/sir_199312
13_hd.txt
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Where is it?

• Most HEU is in military stocks but...
• 20 tons HEU (enough for 400 bombs) in 130
  research reactors in 40 countries some of it
  secured by nothing more than an underpaid guard
  sitting inside a chain link fence.
• Most plutonium is in civilian stocks

Nunn, S. Quoted in Allison G. Nuclear Terrorism,
p.67
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Safeguarding Fissile Materials

• 1992 Russia employee steals 50 g HEU at a time
  accumulates 1.5 kg. Caught by chance.
• 1996 Kazakhstan 205 kg of HEU turns up in
  1996, 1 year after they thought all had been
  given to Russia
• 2001 Istanbul smugglers caught trying to sell 1
  kg HEU for 750,000

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Nuclear Proliferation

• Vertical same countries, more or more
  threatening weapons
• Horizontal more countries
• Original 5 Nuclear Weapons states USA, USSR
  (Russia), England, France, China
• Brazil and South Africa abandoned their programs
• Israel
• India, Pakistan, 1998
• North Korea
• ?Iran

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Current administration approach

• U.S. dominant unilateral
• Emphasis on military solutions
• Build new nuclear weapons and threaten to use them

31
Quotes

• Either you are with us, or you are with the
  terrorists. --GWB, 9/20/01 (www.whitehouse.gov/ne
  ws/ releases/2001/09/20010920-8.html)
• "America will never seek a permission slip to
  defend the security of our people. --GWB, State
  of the Union, 1/20/04
• I dont do carrots. John Bolton

32
New Nuclear Policies
The Embrace of Nuclear Weapons
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US Nuclear Posture Review -1
Current Situation

• 2002 report on the goals and structure of US
  nuclear forces.
• Goal to reduce from 6000 to 2000 operationally
  deployed nuclear weapons by 2012
• Smallest stockpile consistent with national
  security
• Excess weapons not destroyed

34
J.D. Crouch, Assistant Secretary of Defense
Current Situation
The U.S. is currently projecting to keep the
nuclear forces that we have to 2020 and beyond.
Special Briefing on the Nuclear Posture Review,
US Department of Defense, January 9, 2002.
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US Nuclear Posture Review -2
Current Situation

• Offensive strike systems, may include new, lower
  yield, usable weapons
• Nuclear weapons may be used after biological or
  chemical attacks
• Non-nuclear states targeted

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In setting requirements for nuclear strike
capabilitiesNorth Korea, Iraq, Iran, Syria and
Libya are among the countries that could be
involved in immediate, potential or unexpected
contingencies. Nuclear Posture
Review
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On the need for more usable nuclear weapons

• The only thing we have is very large, very
  dirty, big nuclear weapons. It seems to me
  studying it the RNEP makes all the sense in the
  world.
• -Donald Rumsfeld

Pincus, W Pentagon Revises Nuclear Strike Plan.
Strategy Includes Preemptive Use Against Banned
Weapons. Washington Post, 9/11/05 A01
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We have more nuclear weapons now than we know
what to do withIm concerned about our image in
the world when were telling others not to build
these things, and then we push these new weapons.
Representative David Hobson (R-Ohio)
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Salt Lake City Tribune
If the United States, which commands the most
powerful conventional and nuclear arsenal on
Earth, continues to develop new nuclear weapons,
other nations can hardly be faulted for deciding
that they need nuclear weapons also, if only to
deter the United States. -Salt Lake City
Tribune-June 6, 2003
40
FY 06 Budget Request

• Missile defense 8.8 billion
• Shorten time for nuclear testing 25 million
• Robust Nuclear Earth Penetrator 8.5 million
• Modern Pit Facility to make 450 plutonium
  pits/year (nuclear weapon triggers) 7.7 million

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Smart Security Brochure
42
The PSR Platform for SMART Security

• Strengthen international institutions and support
  the rule of law
• Renounce the development of new nuclear weapons
  and strengthen international disarmament treaties
• Change budget priorities to reflect real security
  needs

Endorsed by the National Council of Churches
(100,000 congregations with 45 million members)
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The Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty

• Both nuclear and non-nuclear states agree to
  cooperate to prevent the spread of nuclear
  weapons
• Non-nuclear states agree to forgo their
  development
• In return
• Nuclear states agree to make good-faith efforts
  toward complete nuclear disarmament
• Nuclear power to be available to all
• Signed by U.S. 1968, ratified 1969

(ARTICLE VI)
http//disarmament.un.org8080/TreatyStatus.nsf
44
NPT Article VI

• Each of the Parties to the Treaty undertakes to
  pursue negotiations in good faith on effective
  measures relating to cessation of the nuclear
  arms race at an early date and to nuclear
  disarmament, and on a Treaty on general and
  complete disarmament under strict and effective
  international control.

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What does if mean if a treaty is ratified?

• This Constitution... and all treaties made, or
  which shall be made, under the authority of the
  United States, shall be the supreme law of the
  land and the judges in every state shall be
  bound thereby...
• The Senators and Representatives...and the
  members of the several state legislatures, and
  all executive and judicial officers, both of the
  United States and of the several states, shall be
  bound by oath or affirmation, to support this
  Constitution...

--Article VI, U.S. Constitution
46
RE Article VI of the NPT and the failed NPT
conference

• "If governments simply ignore or discard
  commitments whenever they prove inconvenient, we
  will never be able to build an edifice of
  international cooperation."
• -- Paul Meyer, Canadian Representative to the
  2005 NPT conference.

Quoted in Sanger, D. Month of Talks Fails to
Bolster Nuclear Treaty. New York Times, May 28,
2005
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Nuclear Abolition Endorsed by

• American Public Health Association
• American Medical Association
• American College of Physicians
• International Physicians for the Prevention of
  Nuclear War/Physicians for Social Responsibility
• Global political, military and religious leaders

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Alternative Budget Priorities

• International development
• Global public health
• Alternative energy sources

49
TNs View, Short version

• Nuclear weapons undermine, rather than enhance
  our security
• Even if this were not true, threatening their use
  is illegal and immoral. They are instruments of
  genocide
• We have banned slavery, chemical and biological
  weapons
• We can and should ban nuclear weapons, too
• Its the law

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Quote 2 Senator Everett M. Dirksen

• When I feel the heat, I see the light.

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What You Can Do

• Take some brochures and newsletters
• Sign up for SF Bay Area PSR Security Committee
• Join PSR (www.psr.org)
• Sign up for PSRs Legislative Alert email list
• Join speakers bureau, find audiences
• Increase awareness and concern among public
  health professionals

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Quiz/Review

• Einstein quote
• of tons of TNT equivalent per person in
  existing nuclear weapons
• of Hiroshima-size bombs that can be made from
  existing fissile material
• Article VI of the NPT
• Article VI of the US Constitution
• Dirksen quote

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Supplementary slides
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Stop the machine

• There comes a time when the operation of the
  machine becomes so odious, makes you so sick at
  heart, that you cant take part and youve got
  to put your bodies upon the gears and upon the
  wheels, upon the levers, upon all the apparatus,
  and youve got to make it stop.
• --Mario Savio, 1964

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If we are serious about peace, then we must
work for it as ardently, seriously, carefully
and bravely as we now prepare for war. Wendell
Berry
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Sadako Sasaki and the Childrens Peace Monument
Story
Leafletting in front of the venue for the
Conference of the National Junior High Schools
Principals' Association, November 12, 1955 /
Hiroshima City Auditorium
Sadako Sasaki with her relay team
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Hiroshima Peace Park
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NUNN-LUGAR COOPERATIVE THREAT REDUCTION PROGRAM

• Goals
• Dismantle NBC weapons
• Secure employment for scientists formerly
  involved in their production
• Funding 408 million in FY 2005 416 proposed
  for FY 2006
• Problems with oversight and accounting

64
ABM Treaty

• Article XV
• 1. This Treaty shall be of unlimited duration.
• 2. Each Party shall, in exercising its national
  sovereignty, have the right to withdraw from this
  Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events
  related to the subject matter of this Treaty have
  jeopardized its supreme interests. It shall give
  notice of its decision to the other Party six
  months prior to withdrawal from the Treaty. Such
  notice shall include a statement of the
  extraordinary events the notifying Party regards
  as having jeopardized its supreme interests.

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Fission
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Space Weapons

• Air Force Seeks Bush's Approval for Space Weapons
  Programs
• With little public debate, the Pentagon has
  already spent billions of dollars developing
  space weapons and preparing plans to deploy them.

NY Times 5/18/05
67
1967 Outer Space Treaty

• Article I
• The exploration and use of outer space, including
  the moon and other celestial bodies, shall be
  carried out for the benefit and in the interests
  of all countries, irrespective of their degree of
  economic or scientific development, and shall be
  the province of all mankind.
• Article III
• States Parties to the Treaty shall carry on
  activities in the exploration and use of outer
  space...in the interest of maintaining
  international peace and security and promoting
  international co-operation and understanding.

http//www.state.gov/t/ac/trt/5181.htm
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Fissile Material Dot Chart1 dot 1
Hiroshima-sized bomb
Each square has 47 of these
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General Treaty for the Renunciation of War
(Kellogg-Briand Pact)

• Article II The High Contracting Parties agree
  that the settlement or solution of all disputes
  or conflicts of whatever nature or of whatever
  origin they may be, which may arise among them,
  shall never be sought except by pacific means.
• Signed by Coolidge, Ratified by senate
• Basis for conviction of Nazi war criminals at
  Nuremberg

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The dangerous rise of American exceptionalism

• Withdrew from ABM treaty
• Failed to Sign or Approve
• Convention on the Prohibition of Anti-Personnel
  Land Mines
• Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty
• Enforcement of Biological Weapons Treaty
• International Criminal Court
• Convention on the Rights of the Child

Lancet Volume 361, Number 9369     10 May 2003
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On the legality of nuclear pre-emption

• Unanimously A threat or use of force by means of
  nuclear weapons that is contrary to Article 2,
  paragraph 4, of the United Nations Charter and
  that fails to meet all the requirements of
  Article 51, is unlawful
• Article 2, paragraph 4 All Members shall refrain
  in their international relations from the threat
  or use of force against the territorial integrity
  or political independence of any state, or in any
  other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of
  the United Nations.
• Article 51, UN Charter Nothing in the present
  Charter shall impair the inherent right of
  individual or collective self-defence if an armed
  attack occurs against a Member of the United
  Nations, until the Security Council has taken
  measures necessary to maintain international
  peace and security.

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• Current policies have radically altered
  national security doctrines that had successfully
  safeguarded American interests for more than 50
  years. The changes, as the current crisis in
  Iraq demonstrates, have actually undermined U.S.
  security.

-Lawrence Korb, former Assistant Secretary of
Defense in the Reagan administration