Prsentation PowerPoint

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European Population Day, Tours, 21st of July 2005
Spatial mobility main trends and determinants
Pascal Pochet Laboratoire dEconomie des
Transports Ecole Nationale des Travaux Publics de
lEtat, Université Lyon 2, CNRS
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Paper outline

• Studies on spatial mobility how and why?

• Main determinants and trends

• Mobility trends of the elderly

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How statistical tools and indicators

• household travel surveys
• ? more precise mobility analyses

• transport operators data, traffic counts
• ? global transport trends

• National level 1982 and 1994
• Local trips (lt100 km of home) on the weekday and
  the week-end before
• Long distance trips (on the last 3 months)

• Local, urban level many cities and dates, common
  survey methodology
• only local trips on the day before
• (i.e. trips inside the survey perimeter)

Trip a change of address with a purpose, a time
of origin and destination, one or
several modes of transport
Mobility indicators number of trips, distance
covered, travel time budget
(overall, and for each mode,
purpose, )
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Why? More and more kilometres covered

• Trafic increases with the economic growth

Between 1980 and 2002 - National Product
64 (2.3 annually) - Volume of
passenger-km 56 (2 annually )

• Domination of private cars

• 84 of total passenger-km (national level)

• a large domination in urban contexts too

• A global evolution Europe, North-America,
  emerging countries

Source statistics from the French Ministry of
Transport
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Why? Economic and social stakes

• Cross comparison Lyon (France) Dakar (Senegal)

Source from Lyons Household Travel Survey ,1995
Source EMTSU Dakar 2000, from Diaz Olvera et
al., 2002
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Why? A growing environmental concern

• but a heavy environmental consumption

• Local pollutions European restrictive norms
  and technological improvements

- Global warming effect gas (CO2) no technical
solutions for reduction at the moment
Evolutions in the atmospheric emissions linked to
transport (1981-2020)
Source transport counts and Citepa, in Nicolas,
2004
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Why? A growing environmental concern

• CO2 emissions an increasing part originates in
  transport

Evolution in CO2 emissions in France between 1960
et 2000 in different sectors
Figures from Citepa / Coralie / format Secten
(2001 and 2002), in Nicolas, 2004
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Main determinants and trends

• Global trends for urban daily mobility (France,
  comparison of local Household Travel Surveys)

• two indicators are quite stable over time
• mean number of daily trips, mean travel time
  budget
• several indicators are affected by long term
  evolutions
• modal split more and more car use, less and
  less proximity modes,
• the market share for public transport
  depending on local policies
• increasing speed and length of trips
• - development of non radial trips
• - activities relative decline of work in the
  number of trips, and growth of leisure trips
• Since the mid-nineties, a relative inflexion in
  the trends, in the centre of the cities more
  non-motorised trips

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Main determinants and trends

• At an individual level, cross-section, local
  mobility depends on

• age, and more precisely stage in the life cycle
• date of birth, which influences the probability
  to drive a car
• income, in that it influences the level of
  motorisation
• activity status, especially on kilometres
  covered
• education, especially on leisure trips
• the geographical location of home (and work) -
  first, an impact of population density,
• - and secondary of the size of the urban area

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Main determinants and trends

• A diffuse urban sprawl Lyons urban area

1954 930 000 inhabitants
1999 1 650 000 inhabitants
Source Agence dUrbanisme de Lyon, 2005
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Main determinants and trends

• The distances covered decrease with the
  population density (national survey)

Distances covered during a week according to the
population densityof the place of residence and
to the size of the urban area, France in 1994
Source from National Transport Survey, 1994
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Main determinants and trends

• Increasing spatial dissociation between home and
  work,
• especially for non central places of
  residence

of growth in the outskirts(1990-1999)
Commuting distances in different urban areas, in
1999
Source General Census, 1990 and 1999, taken from
Mignot et al. 2004
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Main determinants and trends

• Motorisation keeps increasing, but still depends
  on
• household income (local level Lyon)

Number of cars according to the household
income Source Lyon Household Travel Survey,
1995, in Nicolas et al., 2001
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Main determinants and trends

• Owning a car, a priority investment for low
  income households
• (local level Lyon)

Low income households Available income and
number of cars owned Source Lyon Household
Travel Survey, 1995, in Nicolas et al., 2001
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Main determinants and trends

• The car, a high cost when income is low and
• residence is far from city centre (local
  level Lyon)

Urban travel expenditures according to household
income per consumption unit and place of
residence Source Lyon Household Travel Survey,
1995, in Nicolas et al. 2001
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Local mobility trends of the elderly

• Consequences of demographic ageing on local km
  growth?

Tends to limit mobility
Tends to favour mobility

• Change in conditions of life of the elderly
• - Better health at a given age
• growing income, level of education, social
  participation
• strong cohort effects on motorisation and
  driving habits
• more and more elderly living in the outskirts

• Change in the age structure
• - Less young and active persons,
• More retired ones,
• With a lower level of
  mobility
• With a relative preference for
  proximity activities
• Including more and more
  very old persons (gt75
  years old)

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Local mobility trends of the elderly

• Cohort effects on the rate of driving licence
  holders
• (national level, 1982 ? 1994)

Men
Women
Source from National Transport Surveys, 1982 and
1994
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Local mobility trends of the elderly

• A growing use amongst driving licence holders of
  successive
• cohorts (national level)

Women
Men
Weekly distance covered by driving licence
holders, between 1992 and 1994
Source from National Transport Surveys, 1982 and
1994
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Conclusion

• daily urban mobility, still an increasing trend

• a social value positively connoted
• motorisation of lifestyles

• but at a lower long term growth rate ?

• towards a saturation point in motorisation?
• a slowing down in urban sprawl?

• if long term coordinated urban policies are
  pursued

• transport modal alternatives to the car
  reduction in car private advantages
• urban planning density, urbanisation of
  outskirts