Metropolitan Planning Thoughts On New Directions

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Metropolitan Planning Thoughts On New Directions

• AMPO SPRING 2006
• Alan E. Pisarski

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FIRST LETS SET SOME GOALS!WE NEED A LOFTY
GOAL TO STIR MENS WOMENS SOULS?
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HOW ABOUT PRESIDING OVER A GRACEFUL DECLINE!
Our Present National Transportation Goal
MAKING THINGS GET WORSE ---- SLOWER! Apply
that to Education Health?
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MY GOAL FOR TRANSPORTATION

• To reduce the effects of distance as an
  inhibiting force in our societys ability to
  realize its economic and social aspirations

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A thought on goals!

• If your transportation goals can be met by
  everyone staying home you have the wrong goals!

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WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO CARE GREATLY ABOUT
TRANSPORTATION!

• Transportation is all about reducing the time and
  cost penalties of distance on our economic and
  social interactions.
• To the extent that we succeed we enable
  tremendous forces of economic opportunity, social
  cohesion and unity.

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The great strengths of America

• A common marketplace of 300 million over 3
  million square miles (3.7 with Alaska/Hawaii)
• A common labor market of 140 million jobs over
  the same area
• A common language and culture
• 2/3 of our households are home-owners
• Access to All World Markets
• A transportation system that ties it all together
  

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IT IS NOT OK FOR TRANSPORTATION TO FAIL

• We are a nation built on mobility
• Trips always have economic or social transactions
  at their end of value to the trip maker
• American society must have the mobility it needs
  to meet its social and economic goals.

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TRANSPORTATION ROLES

• Part of the National flow I-95 is main street
• Part of the State flow ports, commerce and
  social activities
• Regional flows our economic engine
• Community activities
• THIS IS NOT OPTIONAL

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2000 commuting patterns show the importance of
regional flows
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Theres more to transportation than just
commuting!

• COMMUTING (20 of local psgr travel)
• OTHER LOCAL TRAVEL
• TOURISM
• PUBLIC VEHICLES (gov. services)
• SERVICES (Power/phone/cable/sewer/water)
• URBAN GOODS MOVEMENT
• THRU PASSENGER TRAVEL
• THRU FREIGHT TRAVEL 

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The New Millennium World

• A STABLE OLD POPULATION
• THE GLOBALIZATION OF EVERTHING
• SKILLED WORKERS AT A PREMIUM
• WORKERS CAN LIVE, WORK ANYWHERE
• WHO, WHERE ARE THE IMMIGRANTS?
• MAINSTREAMING MINORITIES
• THE SCOURGE OF AFFLUENCE
• A CHALLENGED AFFLUENT SOCIETY

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HELP STAMP OUT AFFLUENCE

• We can do it if we work together!

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Annual Trips Per Household by Household Income -
2001
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Household Transportation Spending by Income Level
-2000
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THE WORK MODE SPLIT OF AN AFFLUENT SOCIETY
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OR DO WE PREFER THE POVERTY POP?
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Mode Choice by Income - 2001
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Immigrant mode trend
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In This New World the Great Issue Will Be Skilled
Workers

• Finding skilled workers will be the key concern
  of business.
• They will go where those people are
• or, go where those people want to be!
• States and Metro areas that can provide this
  resource will be big winners!
• Minorities, Immigrants and rural populations will
  be a crucial part of the work force

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Work Force Issues

• Older workers in labor force
• Even more females in labor force
• Even more variable schedules
• Work hours a lot like part time
• Skills matches more spreading out
• Amenities-based employment

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A FUTURE WORLD WHERE TIME, RELIABILITY AND
RESPONSIVENESS ARE KEY

• KEYS
• Personal Vs Mass
• On-demand Vs Scheduled
• Private Vs Public
• Self-operated Vs Managed
• Time sensitive Vs Cost sensitive
• Security issues

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WHAT DOES THE FUTURE LOOK LIKE?

• MORE AFFLUENCE
• LOWER DENSITY
• AUTO AFFORDABILITY
• AUTO PRONE AGE
• AUTO TRIP PURPOSE
• DISPERSED DESTINATIONS
• HIGHER FREIGHT VALUE
• MORE TIME SENSITIVITY
• DEMOCRATIZATION OF MOBILITY

• More
• Less
• More
• More
• More
• More
• More
• More
• More

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WHAT IS CONGESTION ?

• Congestion is
• People with the economic means to act on their
  social and economic interests - getting in the
  way of other people with the means to act on
  theirs!

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Congestion is our friend!

• Disinterest in congestion bottom of the list of
  problems to solve
• Congestion as a goal if we can let things get
  bad enough behavior will change
• The Constituency for Congestion

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The great loss from congestion is not the extra
three minutes it takes to get home

• HOUSEHOLDS
• Its the decline in the number of jobs I could
  reach in ½ hr!
• Its the decline in the number of affordable
  homes accessible to my work!
• Its the decline in the assurance of arriving on
  time!

• BUSINESSES
• Its the decline in the number of workers within
  ½ hr of my employment site!
• Its the decline in the number of suppliers
  customers within ½ hr of my business!
• Its the decline in ship- ment reliability!

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The Present Policy Conflict Two Metro Visions

• Neighborhood
• Shorter trips
• Walk/bike
• Land use solutions
• Design
• Whats freight?
• Accessibility
• Public
• Mass
• Change behavior
• Make it happen

• Globally Integrated
• Longer trips
• Broad community
• Choices
• Market forces
• Major role for freight
• Mobility
• Private
• Personalized
• Technological fix
• Let it happen

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The sprawl debate ( a very white suburban
topic)diverts us from the real issues

• Lack of workers/skilled workers
• Mainstreaming minorities access to services
• Safety/security
• Serving an aging population
• Responding to pressures of time
• enhancing economic opportunities
• Global competitiveness

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BLAMING TRANSPORTATION FOR THE PROBLEMS OF
SPRAWL IS LIKE BLAMING HEALTH CARE FOR THE
PROBLEMS OF OLD AGE.Brad Mallory, Sec DOT, Pa.
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WHAT'S WRONG WITH THE AMERICAN PEOPLE?

• Why do they want what they want ?
• Why can't they want what we want them to want ?
• If this keeps up our government will be forced to
  elect new people !

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WE MUST CONFRONT THE FALLACIES DIRECTLY

• System is in place
• Congest our way to the solution
• Induced Demand- It just fills up again
• Efficiency
• The air quality goal benefits of free-flow
  travel
• Natural dispersal in an affluent society

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BEWARE!Efficiency in transportation is a very
dangerous word

• THE EFFICIENCY OF WHO OR WHAT?
• The key to all transportation is the efficiency
  of the users not the vehicles
• Thats why trucks not trains cars not buses
• School bus efficiency vs students !
• One colossal pizza delivery per night per
  neighborhood is efficient!
• THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HAVE NO OBLIGATION TO LIVE IN
  WAYS THAT MAKE GOVERNANCE MORE EFFICIENT!

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Congress hears

• Shifts in Planning goals and focus
• Safety/Security
• Economic development
• Accountability
• No teeth parts per million for congestion or
  any other goal?

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A Question!

• What Part Of Gains In Air Quality In The Past 20
  Years Have Come From
• Technology?
• Changed Behavior?

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A Question!

• What Part Of Gains In Air Quality In The Next 20
  Years Will Come From
• Technology?
• Changed Behavior?

• What Part Of Gains In Air Quality In The Past 20
  Years Have Come From
• Technology - 95-98
• Changed Behavior

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The beginnings of a reaction

• freight needs a dose of reality
• Irate reactions to congestion
• 9/11 as a wakeup call
• It is no longer acceptable that things are bad
  and our plans accept they will get worse

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THE LEAVENING POWER OF FREIGHT MOVEMENT

• Forces serious consideration of costs
• Costs are direct and immediate
• Strongly and directly impacts jobs
• Think of Trucks with glass sides
• How many ton-miles in my breakfast?
• Transportation policy and planning is not a
  parlor game

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Community Reactions

• Legislatures and business communities demand
  response to congestion
• Washington
• Georgia
• Texas
• Others
• Texas federal program a program for the
  average state we are not average.
• What will it take to assure our competitiveness
  in the future
• What will it take to assure access to low-cost
  housing

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A New Plan for Planning for States And MPOs

• MEET SAFETY NEEDS
• SUPPORT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
• ASSURE SECURITY -- REDUNDANCY
• MAINTAIN MOBILITY/RELIABILITY
• SERVE AGING POPULATIONS
• SERVE LOW-INCOME POPULATIONS
• CLRP Plus
• WHERE DOES AIR QUALITY FIT IN THIS?

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MPO Skills Needed

• Economists Labor/Freight/Competition
• Freight/Logistics Specialists
• Safety/Security Specialists
• Housing Specialists
• Operations Specialists
• Information Systems Technologies

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The right next steps

• Accept public consumer sovereignty
• A real dedication to solving congestion
• Adopt measurable performance results
• Win public respect and support
• OR, THE GOVT COULD ELECT NEW PEOPLE!

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THANK YOU!

• Alan E. Pisarski
• PISARSKI_at_ALANPISARSKI.C0M

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For the first time in history

• A nations population is approaching a state
  where it can live and work wherever it wants!
• Affluence and low cost transportation and
  communications have made that possible.
• Some recoil at that idea. We need a serious
  search for understanding rather than bumper
  sticker policy.

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the 1976 TRB Critical Issues List stated the
US transportation system is now essentially in
place. said it again in 78, and again in
81.In a totally-unrelated eventthe 84 Issues
list dropped this statement and added a new issue
called CONGESTION!
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Is Our Transportation System In Place?

• A nation that by the end of the decade can
  expect
• Another 30 million people
• And probably as many vehicles
• And another 3 trillion in GDP
• Cannot say that its transportation work is done!

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WE ADD A CANADA EACH DECADE!!!!

• DO WE ADD CANADAS TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM?

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OR ?

• If we cant make things go faster then at least
  we can make them more reliable!
• Reliably slow is the goal?
• Why not apply that to education, public health,
  and water supply!

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MY THREE MEASURES OF PERFORMANCE

• Are things getting better or worse?
• What do I mean by better or worse?
• Did I have anything to do with their getting
  better or worse?

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BEWARE!Efficiency in transportation is a very
dangerous word

• THE EFFICIENCY OF WHO OR WHAT?
• The key to all transportation is the efficiency
  of the users not the vehicles
• Thats why trucks not trains cars not buses
• School bus efficiency vs students !
• One colossal pizza delivery per night per
  neighborhood is efficient!
• THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HAVE NO OBLIGATION TO LIVE IN
  WAYS THAT MAKE GOVERNANCE MORE EFFICIENT!

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The development of electric railways has
resulted in such a wide distribution of urban
and suburban population that the retail merchant
finds the delivery of goods more and more
difficult each year. Ad for the Oldsmobile
Commercial Car circa 1904
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The Personal Vehicle And Our Future

• Trip length?
• Purpose?
• Freight more/less valuable ?
• Freight more/less time sensitive?
• Destinations more/less dispersed?

• A More/Less Affluent Pop?
• A Higher/Lower Density Pop?
• Auto use more/less affordable?
• Age distribution more/less oriented to the auto?