Ralph Cicerone is writing a paper to be distributed by NCSE that will use the following slides' In t

1

• Ralph Cicerone is writing a paper to be
  distributed by NCSE that will use the following
  slides.  In that paper, he will properly cite
  and identify each slide. Currently some of them
  are not labeled completely.

2
Finding Climate Change and Being Useful by
Ralph J. Cicerone John H. Chafee Memorial
Lecture National Council for Science and the
Environment January 26, 2006
3
Ice extent during the Last Glacial Maximum
Ruddiman et al (2005)
4

• Annually-banded ice cores can be used to
  reconstruct past climatic conditions
• Cover photo Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru
• (Lonnie Thompson)

5
(No Transcript)
6
Moberg et al (2005) N. Hemisphere Surface
Temperature Reconstruction
7
Levitus et al (2005) Ocean heat content in three
layers
8
Barnett et al (2005) Observed and modeled ocean
temperature changes
Red circles observed warming signal
strengthGreen hatched area range of signal
strengths in PCM model with anthropogenic
forcing included
9
Last 50 Years Surface Temperature Change Based on
Linear Trends (oC)
10
Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent (1979 versus
2003)Image courtesy of NASA-Goddard Space Flight
Center
11
Emanuel (2005) Hurricane power dissipation index
(PDI)
PDI has increased dramatically in recent decades
in both the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins
12
(No Transcript)
13
Mauna Loa, Hawaii
14
Global, Regional, and National CO2 emissions
Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning,
cement production, and gas flaring for 1751-2002
15
(No Transcript)
16
(No Transcript)
17
(No Transcript)
18
Frohlich and Lean (2005) Recent analyses of
satellite measurements do not indicate a
long-term trend in solar irradiance (the amount
of energy received by the sun)
19

• Immediate action with multiple benefits.
• Energy efficiency would
• decrease our dependency on foreign oil
• improve our national security
• decrease our trade deficit
• decrease local air pollution
• increase our national competitiveness
• encourage development of new products for global
  markets
• decrease household energy costs while also
• slowing the increases of CO2 and CH4 !

20
Being Useful Through Science Polarized
discussion obscures priorities. We must
accelerate scientific research to deliver more
useful results. For example, regional
precipitation and hydrology, extreme events
like daily high temperatures to be expected
and minimum nightly temperatures in summer,
Arctic sea-ice futures, What to expect after
the next stratosphere-penetrating
volcano?
21

• Being Useful Through Science - II
• Effectiveness of policies to retard radiative
  forcing by slowing the CO2 increase, slowing
  the N2O increase, reducing atmospheric CH4 and
  tropospheric O3, reducing emissions of
  extremely long-lived gases.
• Statistics of storm-driven sea surges for
  infrastructure and emergency planning and the
  insurance industry, statistics of hurricane
  intensities and frequencies.
• Improved predictions of hurricane tracks (sea
  temperatures (depth), wind measurements by A/C
  and remote sensing, ships).
• Communications climate is more than surface
  temperatures
• what is known and not known

22
1997-98 El Nino Precipitation Anomalies

• Predicted precipitation anomalies for Jan-May
  1998 based on composite of eight previous ENSO
  events
• Actual precipitation anomalies (relative to
  long-term averages) for Jan-May 1998
• Source NOAA Climate Prediction Center

23
Finding Climate Change and Being Useful by
Ralph J. Cicerone John H. Chafee Memorial
Lecture National Council for Science and the
Environment January 26, 2006