The European Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (EUFASOM)

1
The European Forest and Agricultural Sector
Optimization Model (EUFASOM)

• Uwe A. Schneider
• Research Unit Sustainabilty and Global Change
• Hamburg University

2
FASOM History

• US (1993)
• EU (2004)
• Global (2006)

3
FASOM

• Partial Equilibrium Model
• Maximizes sum of consumer and producer surplus
• Constrained by resource endowments, technologies,
  policies
• Spatially explicit, discrete dynamic
• Integrates environmental effects
• Programmed in GAMS

4
Purpose and Objectives

• To advice policy makers about the agricultural
  and forestry sector response to structural
  changes
• Policies
• Environmental change
• Technical change
• Socioeconomic change

5
Policy Scope

• Climate and other environmental policies
• Research subsidies
• Agricultural policies
• Trade policies

Simultaneous assessment
6
Bioenergy Biomaterial
Food Timber Fiber
Land use competition
Nature Reserves
Carbon Sinks
Sealed Land
7
Objective Function
Price
Supply
Consumer Surplus
P
Resource Rents
Demand
Quantity
Q
8
Surplus Maximization
9
Commodity Demand

• 4 general cases (above)
• For all final products
• For all regions
• Domestic Use, Export

10
Model Structure
Limits
Limits
Resources
Land Use Technologies
Products
Markets
Inputs
Demand Functions, Trade
Processing Technologies
Environmental Impacts
Supply Functions
Limits
11
Model Structure
Forest Inventory
Cropland
Domestic demand
Markets
Water
Forestry, Nature, Crop production
Export
Labor
Processing
Import
Other Inputs
Livestock production
Feed mixing
Pasture
12
Spatial Resolution

• Political regions
• Ownership (forests)
• Farm types
• Farm size

• Soil texture
• Stone content
• Altitude levels
• Slopes
• Soil state

• Many crop and tree species
• Tillage, planting irrigation, fertilization
  harvest regime

13
Homogeneous Response Units

• Altitude
• lt 300 m
• 300-600 m
• 600-1100 m
• gt1100 m

• Slope Class
• 0-3
• 3-6
• 6-10
• 10-15

DE11
DE12

• Texture
• Coarse
• Medium
• Medium-fine
• Fine
• Very fine

DE14

• Soil Depth
• shallow
• medium
• deep

DE13

• Stoniness
• Low content
• Medium content
• High content

14
EUFASOM Dynamics

• 5 (to 20) year time steps
• State of forests (and soil organic matter)
• Technical progress
• Demand industry growth
• Resource and global change
• Policy scenarios

15
State of the Art

• Flexibility (resolve acc. needs)
• Index notation
• millions of data, variables, and equations with
  sparse programming statements
• ensures consistency (model development)
• Extensive generic equation checks (30 checks per
  equation)
• Systematic solution analysis (symptom to cause)

16
Positive VariablesRESOURCE_VAR
(PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE) FOREST_VAR
(PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,OWNER,AG
E,FORTECH) PEREN_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOI
LSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,CROPTECH) CROP_VAR
(PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,CRO
PTECH) LIVE_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,LIVETECH)
FEED_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,PRODUCT,FEEDTECH)
ECO_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,ECOTEC
H) PROCESS_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PROCTECH)
LUC_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE)
DEMAND_VAR (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT) SUPPLY_VAR
(PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT) TRADE_VAR
(PERIOD,REGION,REGION,PRODUCT)
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EquationsOBJECTIVE_EQU RESOURCEBAL_EQU
(PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE) RESOURCEMAX_EQU
(PERIOD,REGION,RESOURCE) SOILSTATE_EQU
(PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE)
FORINVENT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,
SPECIES,OWNER,AGE,FORTECH) LUC_EQU
(PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHANGE)
LUCLIMIT_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,CHA
NGE) STOCK_EQU (PERIOD,REGION,STOCK)EMIT_EQU
(PERIOD,REGION,SUBSTANCE)PRODUCTBAL_EQU
(PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT) MINFEED_EQU
(PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,NUTRIENT) MAXFEED_EQU
(PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,NUTRIENT)
18
DataFOREST_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTAT
E,SPECIES,FARM,AGE,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)PEREN_DATA
(PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,AGE
,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)CROP_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTY
PE,SOILSTATE,SPECIES,FARM,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)ECO_DA
TA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SOILSTATE,ALLTECH,ALLIT
EM)LIVE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ANIMAL,ALLTECH,ALLIT
EM)FEED_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLTECH,ALLI
TEM)PROCESS_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLTECH,ALLITEM)
PRODUCT_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM)MA
RKET_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLITEM,SDTYPE,SDITEM)T
RADE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM)
RESOURCE_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,ALLRESOURCE,SDITEM)
STOCK_DATA (PERIOD,REGION,PRODUCT,ALLITEM)LUC_DA
TA (PERIOD,REGION,SOILTYPE,SPECIES,ALLCHANGE,ALLIT
EM)
19
Pre-Solution Analysis

• Identifies structural errors
• Missing data
• Misspecified data
• Wrong signs
• More than 30 general variable and equation checks

20
Mitigation Potentials
500
450
400
Technical Potential
350
Competitive Potential
300
Carbon price (Euro/tce)
250
200
150
100
50
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Mitigation (mmtce)
21
Changes in Welfare Accounts
8
6
4
Gross Ag-Producer Surplus
2
Net Ag-Producer Surplus
0
Billion Euros
-2
Emission Payments
-4
-6
Ag-Consumer Surplus
-8
-10
0
20
40
60
80
100
Carbon Equivalent (CE) Prices in Euros per Ton
22
GHG Mitigation and Markets
220
200
180
160
140
Fisher index
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Carbon price (Euro/tce)
23
Afforestation Potentials
500
400
Economic Potential
300
Carbon price (Euro/tce)
Competitive Economic Potential
200
100
Technical Potential
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Emission reduction (mmtce)
24
Forest Policy Crop Emissions
15
10
Irrigation Use
Nitrogen Fertilizer
5
Emissions (kg C/ha)
0
Fossil Fuel Use
-5
-10
Ag-Soil Carbon
-15
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Carbon price (Euro/tce)
25
500
450
400
Independent Geographic Potential
350
Competitive Economic Potential
300
Carbon Price in Euro/mtce
250
Simult. Technical Potential
200
150
Independent Technical Potential
100
50
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Total Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emission
Abatement in mmtce
26
500
Crop Area Fixed
450
Crop Area and Prices Fixed
400
Crop Area and Prices Endogenous
350
300
Carbon Price in Euro/mtce
250
200
Prices Fixed
150
100
50
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Total Agricultural and Forest Greenhouse Gas
Emission Abatement in mmtce
27
Power Plant Biomass Supply
80
70
Unrestricted Capacity
60
50
2050 Capacity
Energy Crops (million hectares)
40
30
20
2030 Capacity
10
2010 Capacity
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
Carbon tax on energy (Euro/ton of carbon)
28
Thanks