AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AND FOOD SECURITY IN SUBSAHARAN AFRICA TANZANIA COUNTRY REPORT By Prof H'K'

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AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT AND FOOD SECURITY IN
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICATANZANIA COUNTRY
REPORTBy Prof H.K.R AmaniEconomic and
Social Research Foundation (ESRF)Dar es Salaam,
TanzaniaAugust 2005
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Contents

• Introduction
• Analysis of Food Security Situation
• Agricultural Support Magnitude, Evolution and
  Trends
• Analysis of Food Import/Aid Dependence
• Food Security Strategies.

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1.0 Introduction

• Tz has a total population of 34 Million GDP per
  Capita of US 330 average GDP growth of 5.8
  (2000-2004)
• The agric sector plays an important role in the
  Tanzanian economy (contributes more than 40
  percent of GDP and employs 63 percent of the
  labor force).
• Performance of the Agric Sector falls short of
  the growth needed to ensure adequate supplies to
  meet food and nutritional requirements on a
  sustainable basis (growth of 3.7 percent annually
  between 1996 2003).
• Tz is not a famine prone country, and has the
  potential to produce its food requirements.
• However, over the years, food production in the
  country has sometimes failed to meet demand.
• The country has been importing food to the tune
  of 4 to 10 and receiving food aid to meet
  production shortfalls.
• Key questions Why this trend? Why is agriculture
  not attracting support? What are the policy (and
  other) constraints? What are the impacts of aid
  dependency? What are the possible exit strategies.

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2.0 Analysis of Food Security Situation

• Food Supply and Production
• Between 1990, and 2000, the total supply of
  cereals, root and tuber crop declined by 8.7
• Supply of cereals has shown a slight recovery in
  the late 1990s and early 2000s, while that of
  root and tuber crops has continued to decline.
• Trends in Food Supply (cereal, root and tuber
  crops) Kilocalorie/head/day

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• Sources of Available Food
• In the early 1990s, about 96 of total food
  available, came from domestic grain output (65)
  and root crop production (31).
• Import dependency which was not very high in the
  early 1990s, sharply increased towards the late
  1990s.
• Available Food by Source
• Food aid has fluctuated over the years, but on
  average accounted for about 17 of grain imports
  between 1992 and 2000.

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• Food Security Situation in Recent Years
• Production was 92 and 94 of requirements in
  season 1999/00 and 2000/01 respectively, implying
  a slight deficit.
• Production was greater than requirement in
  2001/02, implying food self-sufficiency
• Due to poor rainfall in 2002/03, domestic food
  production fell below total requirements,
  resulting into a deficit, but recovered in
  2003/04.
• However, these are national aggregates, and there
  are significant variations in the food security
  situation between regions.
• Food production and Requirements 1999/00
  2003/04
• Prod - Production
• Req - Requirements
• SSR - Self Sufficiency Ratio - Reflects the
  ability of food production to meet demand. When
  SSR lt 100, it implies food deficit When 100 lt
  SSR lt 120, it implies food self sufficiency and
  when SSR gt 120 it implies surplus.

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• Trends in Nutritional Status
• Demographic and Health Surveys (TDHS) provide
  estimates for 1991/92, 1996, and 1999.
• Results show that there was very little progress
  in improving the nutritional status of children
  over the 1990s.
• Child Nutrition Actual and Desired Trends

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• Vulnerability to Food Insecurity
• The following types of households are likely to
  be more vulnerable to food insecurity in
  Tanzania.
• Subsistence farmers who produce marginal or
  inadequate amounts of food
• Resource poor farmers who lack adequate land,
  labor and inputs to produce adequate food
• Landless wage earners lacking adequate resources
  to reduce food or income to obtain food
• Households with large numbers of dependents
• Households situated in marginal lands (e.g.
  drought-prone area or steep slopes adversely
  affected by erosion, and flood-prone areas)
• Despite lack of adequate statistics, it is argued
  that the number of vulnerable individuals is
  increasing, and support mechanisms are not
  expanding.
• The special vulnerable groups are children and
  orphans, women, the disabled and the every old.
• Shock-related vulnerability in Tanzania (derived
  from major unforeseen events) has been caused by
  adverse weather conditions and HIV/AIDS.

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3.0 Agriculture Support Magnitude, Evolution
and Trends

• Role and Potential of the Agricultural Sector
• The sector plays an important role in the
  economy.
• Possesses the potential to advance the countrys
  objectives of growth, poverty reduction, and food
  security.
• It contributes significantly in terms of
• Aggregate growth (47 of GDP)
• Employment (75 of total employment)
• Foreign Exchange (51)
• Strong linkages with other sectors of the economy
  
• stimulating demand for supplies of goods and
  services to farmers (agricultural transport,
  storage and marketing as well as consumer goods),
  
• providing raw materials to processors, and

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• Fundamental Challenges to Agricultural Sector
  Development
• Generation and adoption of technical change
  resulting in increased joint productivity of
  land, labor and capital (total factor
  productivity)
• Provision of agricultural credit
• Private sector investment in agriculture
• Reduced dependence on rain fed agriculture
• Improved coordination of sector institutional
  changes
• Evolution of Public Support Policy
  Institutional Environment
• Main components of policy reforms - adopted in
  the mid 1980s and early 1990s
• Liberalizing marketing and pricing of food
  grains
• Liberalizing marketing and pricing structure of
  export crops
• Removal of monopoly export powers of crop
  marketing boards

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• Overall Planning Framework
• Tanzania Development Vision 2025
• National Poverty Eradication Strategy (NPES)
• The National Strategy for Growth and Reduction of
  Poverty (NSGRP)
• Joint Assistance Strategy (TAS)
• Medium Term Plans (MTPs) for Growth and Poverty
  Reduction
• More Specific Agricultural Sector
  Policies/Strategies
• Agriculture and Livestock Policy (1997)
• Agriculture Sector Development Strategy (ASDS)
  2001
• Agriculture Sector Development Programme (ASDP)
• Cooperative Development Policy (2002)
• Draft National Food Security Policy (2004)
• Draft Agricultural Marketing Policy (2005)
• Generally the current policy framework highly
  complements agricultural sector development and
  reconciles with poverty reduction initiatives (at
  least at the level of intent).

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• Trends in Budgetary Support
• Over the 1990s, real value allocations to the
  then Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives
  showed a declining trend.
• There was some recovery in the 1998/99 and
  1999/2000 budgets.
• Still, the 1999/2000 budget was almost one third
  lower (in real terms) compared to the average of
  the allocations in the first three years of the
  period.
• Real Budget Allocations to Agriculture (MAC)

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• More recent spending on agriculture represents a
  reversal of the downward trends, and indicates
  readiness of Government to rebalance public
  expenditure.
• Trends have been subsequently upwards for both
  recurrent and development budgets.
• Central Government Expenditure to the Agric
  Sector, 1998/99-2003/04

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• Trends in agricultural Sector Performance
• Despite a supportive policy framework,
  performance of the agricultural sector is still
  not sufficient to meet the ambitious poverty
  goals and ensure food security.
• Trends in Annual Growth of Agriculture and Real
  GDP
• With modest increases in labor productivity and
  yields almost stagnant, growth is derived largely
  from land expansion by farms using traditional
  technology.

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4.0 Food Import and Aid Dependency

• Tanzanias food import dependency which was not
  very high in the early 1990s, has sharply
  increased since 1997.
• Food aid has fluctuated over the years, but on
  average accounted for about 17 of grain imports
  between 1992 and 2000.
• Total Imports (Commercial and Food Aid) of
  Cereals (000 tons)

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• Food aid distribution since 1991/92 shows that
  94/95 and 2004 periods received most aid.
• In both cases, food aid distribution was a result
  of poor rains which led to crop failure.
• Trends in Total Food Aid Distribution (1991/92
  2004)
• Impact of Food Aid.
• Patterns of food production in some districts
  receiving a lot of food aid show that food
  production levels have remained fairly low and
  constant not conclusive as their could be other
  factors.
• However, an empirical study in Tz revealed that
  food aid did not have a statistically significant
  direct disincentive impact on staple production.

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5.0 Prospects for Future Food Security
Sustainability

• Given limited resources, food security policies
  and strategies should be well focused and
  effective.
• They should ensure availability, accessibility
  and utilization of adequate, safe and
  nutritionally balanced food for all on a
  sustainable basis.
• Priority areas where more needs to be done
  include
• Availability of Food
• Mobilizing resources for efficient use of the
  irrigation potential in the country
• Promoting better handling and improved storage of
  agro-products to reduce post harvest losses
• Enhancing productivity through development of
  appropriate technology packages which will
  require focused efforts in Research and Extension
  services
• Accessibility of Food
• Improving access of producers and traders to
  agricultural markets by improving rural market
  facilities and infrastructure.
• Food Consumption and Utilization

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Conclusion

• Reducing food insecurity depends greatly on the
  performance of the agricultural sector.
• Many SSA countries including Tanzania, have the
  natural resource endowment to enable them not
  only feed themselves, but also export surplus.
• With declining government resources partly as a
  result of adjustment programmes, the private
  sector should help fill the gap resulting from
  reduced public support.
• The state has a role to provide the right signals
  for increasing agricultural investment, including
  creating a favorable legal and policy
  environment.
• Governments may still be the most appropriate
  providers of services that fall into the category
  referred to as public goods such as road
  infrastructure, market information systems,
  physical market infrastructure etc.
• In some instances, there may be the possibility
  of partial costs recovery through imposing
  charges (e.g. in the use of storage facilities in
  market places).
• Hence, both the state and the private sector have
  significant roles to play in agricultural
  development in general and food security in
  particular.

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Thank you for your Attention