Science and Technology Infusion Plan

1

• Science and Technology Infusion Plan
• for
• Winter Weather Services

Sam Contorno
NWS ST Committee September 17, 2002
2
Outline

• Team Composition
• Vision / Benefits
• Goals / Targets
• Key Information Gaps
• Key Solutions
• Outstanding R D Needs
• Summary

3
Winter Weather ServicesTeam Composition

• Paul Sisson NWS/WFO BTV
• Jeff Waldstreicher NWS/ER
• Peter Manousos NWS/NCEP/HPC
• Allen White OAR/ETL
• Paul Neiman OAR/ETL
• Paul Stokols NWS/OCCWS

• Sam Contorno NWS/OST
• Mark Tew NWS/OCCWS
• Marty Ralph OAR/ETL
• Jack Dostalek NESDIS/CIRA
• John Cortinas OAR/NSSL/CIMMS
• Andy Edman NWS/WR SSD

4
Winter Weather ServicesVision / Benefits

• Vision
• Winter Storm Warning Lead Time gt 24 Hrs
• Probabilistic Guidance Out to 10 Days

• Large Winter Storms Result in Losses of Billions
  and Influences Regional/National Economy.
• Better Information Better Decisions by Public
  Prior to Arrival of
• Inclement Wx
• Millions in Savings for Public Works
  Transportation Sector

5
Winter WeatherGoals/Targets to FY 12
Existing GPRA Performance Measure FY01Skill FY07 Goal FY12 Target
Winter Storm Warning Lead Time 13 Hours 15 Hours 20 Hours
Winter Storm Warning POD 90 90 94
Proposed Performance Measure FY01 Skill FY07 Target FY12 Target
Winter Storm Warning FAR 27 26 23
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Winter WeatherKey Information Gaps

• More Accurate Cyclone Track More Precise
  Position of Precipitation Cutoff and Rain/Snow
  Line/Snow Level
• Limited Coastal and Offshore Observations Aloft
• Understanding of Model Guidance Uncertainty
• More Accurate Identification of Precipitation
  Type, Cloud Microphysical Info, and Vertical
  Distribution of Moisture
• More Accurate Identification of Mesoscale Snow
  Bands and Orographic Effects

7
Winter Weather Key ST Solutions
Gap Solution Impact
More Accurate Cyclone Track Rain/Snow Line Snow Level Advanced GFS/8 km WRF Adv Data Assim/Sat Upgrades Dual Polarization Profiler Snow-level Detection 8 km WRF Rain/Snow Line Resolved within 30 km (50 km today)
Limited Coastal and Offshore Observations Aloft Targeted Observations Coastal and Buoy Profilers Satellite Upgrades Improved NWP Improved Winter Storm Warning Lead Time and POD
Probabilistic Range of Uncertainties Weather-Climate Connection Advanced Ensembles Advanced Data Assimilation Increased Certainty and Consistency of Forecasts Longer Range Forecasts
ID of Precipitation Type, Microphysical Info, Vertical Distribution of Moisture Dual Polarization GPS, MDCRS, Satellite Upgrades Decision Assistance Tools (e.g., Improved Precip Type Algorithm) Cloud Microphysics Schemes Better, Precise Forecasts of Precip Type/Amount
More Accurate Monitoring of Meso Snow Bands and Orographic Effects Meso SnowBand Technique Improved Understanding of Physical Processes Finer-Scale Forecasts of Heavy Snow/Icing
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Winter Weather Key ST SolutionsCurrent
Programmatic Phase
Targeted Obs.
Dual Polarization
MDCRS-WVSS2
Observations
GPS-IPW
Satellite Upgrades
Deployment
8km WRF
SR Ensembles
Advanced Ensembles
GFS
DA/Models
Weather-Climate Connection
OTE
Meso Snowband Technique
DTE
Forecast Techniques
Snow Level Detection Algorithm
RD
Precip Type Algorithms
Weather Event Simulator
Training
Winter Weather NWP PDS
9
Winter WeatherOutstanding RD Needs

• Develop Sensors that Accurately Detect Different
  Precipitation Types/Measure Snow Depth
• Develop Ensemble Techniques for Probabilistic
  Forecasts of Severity of Large-Scale Winter
  Storms
• Improve Understanding of Mesoscale and
  Microphysical Processes that Lead to Heavy Winter
  Precipitation Events
• Improve Understanding of Orographic Effects on
  Mesoscale Distribution of Winter Precipitation
• Develop Artificial Intelligence Systems to
  Forecast Snowbands/Heavy Snowfall/Significant
  Icing
• Develop Improved Collaborative Forecast Tools
• Develop Improved Verification Procedures

10
Winter Weather Summary
Vision Lead Times gt 24 Hrs Prob. Guidance
10 Days

• RD Needs
• Precipitation Type Sensors
• Probabilistic Forecast Techniques
• Artificial Intelligence to Detect Heavy Snowbands
  
• Understanding of Mesoscale and Microphysical
  Processes

Increasing Performance

• Deploy High Resolution, More Accurate Models
• Enhance Decision Assistance Tools
• Expand Targeted Observations

• Deploy Advanced Ensemble Techniques
• Deploy Dual Polarization/Satellite Upgrades

Continuous Training
2002
2007
2012
11

• Back-up Information

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Primary Customers/Partners

• General Public
• Emergency Managers
• Federal/State/Local Governments
• Transportation Industries
• International Interests
• Educational Organizations/Institutions of Higher
  Learning
• Media
• Private Sector Weather Forecasters

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Key Products/Services

• Winter Weather Watches/Warnings
• Zone Forecasts
• Winter Weather Advisories/Outlooks
• Public Information Statements
• Heavy Snow/Icing Discussions
• Probabilistic Heavy Snow/Icing Forecasts
• Short-term (1-6h) Winter Weather Discussion

14
Profiler Snow-Level DetectionSnow Advisory
raised to Winter Storm Warning

• Prototype profiler snow-level product showed 2700
  ft snow level at the coast, 1300 ft lower than
  the snow level that had been predicted before
  landfall.
• NWS Portland OR SOO (Bill Schneider) upgraded
  earlier Snow Advisory to a Winter Storm Warning
  based on this lower snow level and passes being
  at 4000 ft.
• Forecasters use of these data increased warning
  lead time by 15 h in this case and increased POD
  by avoiding a miss.

Predicted snow level