Science and Technology Infusion Plan

1

• Science and Technology Infusion Plan
• for
• Severe Weather

Daniel Meléndez
NWS ST Committee September 17, 2002
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Outline

• Team Composition
• Vision / Benefits
• Goals / Targets
• Key Information Gaps
• Key Solutions
• Outstanding R D Needs
• Summary

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Severe WeatherTeam Composition

• Daniel Meléndez (NWS/OST)
• Richard Okulski (NWS/OS)
• John Weaver (NESDIS)
• Don Burgess (OAR/NSSL)
• Robert Saffle (OST)
• Steve Weiss (SPC)
• Ron Przybylinski (WFO/STL)

• Dan Smith (SRH)
• Liz Quoetone (WDTB)
• John Ferree (WDTB)
• David Sharp (WFO/MLB)
• Terry Schuur (OAR/NSSL)
• Brian Motta (NWS/OCWWS)
• Bard Zajac (U. No. Co.)

4
Severe WeatherVision / Benefits

• 2025 Vision
• Tornado Warning Lead Times Beyond Tornadic
  Lifetimes (? 30 min) at 1-km resolution

• Save Lives
• Increased Lead Times Enables Necessary Actions to
  Minimize Impact of Severe Local Storms
• Millions in Savings to Transportation Similar
  Industries

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Severe WeatherGoals/Targets to FY 12
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Severe Weather Goals/Targets to FY 12
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Severe WeatherKey Information Gaps

• Higher Resolution and Density Storm-Scale Data
• Improved Specification and Forecasting of
  Pre-Storm Environment
• Improved Specification and Forecasting of
  Boundaries
• Improved Understanding and Specification of
  Severe Weather Signatures
• Improved Verification

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Severe Weather Key ST Solutions
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Severe Weather Key ST Solutions
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Severe Weather Key ST SolutionsCurrent
Programmatic Phase
MDCRS Water Vapor/EDR
SCAN
Dual Pol
ORPG/Finer and FasterVCPs/ORDA/TDWR
Deployment
Observations
OTE
Satellite Remote Sensing
WRF
Ensembles
DTE
DA/Models
RD
Enabling Process
Severe Weather RD
Training PDT
WES
Training
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Severe WeatherOutstanding RD Needs

• Improved Understanding of Tornado Formation
• Improved Understanding of Severe Weather
  Meteorology
• Objective Verification
• Improved Cloud-Scale Models
• Improved Situational Awareness Tools and Training
• Improved Understanding of Total Lightning Data in
  Severe Weather Forecasting
• Improved Understanding of Radar Polarimetry in
  Severe Weather Forecasting
• Improved Understanding of Predictability Limits
• Improved Understanding of Socioeconomic Impact

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Severe Weather Summary
Vision

• Tornado Warning Lead Times Beyond Tornadic
  Lifetimes
• (? 30 min) at 1-km resolution

• RD Needs
• Tornadogenesis
• RD on severe weather
• Objective verification
• Cloud-scale models
• Situational awareness tools and training
• RD on total lightning data and radar polarimetry
  data
• Predictability Limits
• Improved Understanding on Socioeconomic Impact

• Implement WRF
• Deploy Advanced Ensemble Techniques
• Dual Polarization
• New Satellite Remote Sensing
• Enhanced Training

Increasing Performance

• WSR88D Radar Upgrades
• TDWR integration
• WES/Training
• MDCRS

RD
2007
2012
2002
2020
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Severe WeatherSummary

• Severe weather warning and detection FY07
  improvements will be driven by observational
  (radar) increases in resolution and coverage
• Need continued training and severe weather
  research as part of threshold progress
• Improved verification is critical to overall
  progress
• FAR is a consequence of verification accuracy so
  emphasis should be on detection
• Synoptic forecasting models on track

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Severe Weather

• BACKGROUND SLIDES

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Severe WeatherWhy FAR May Be at High Risk?

• WSR-88D Lesson New technologies temporarily
  raise POD at the expense of FAR
• Long-term FAR reduction trails POD increase

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U95
Trend
Actual
L95
Descriptive Statistics Constant
-131.1915 Coefficient 0.0708 Rsqr 0.053
T-value for slope 0.53 2-tailed t-test 95 CI
w/ 5 degrees of freedom 2.57
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U95
Trend
Actual
L95
Descriptive Statistics Constant
10.0956 Coefficient -0.0047 Rsqr 0.127
T-value for slope -0.85 2-tailed t-test 95
CI w/ 5 degrees of freedom 2.57
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U95
Trend
Actual
L95
Descriptive Statistics Constant
-31.8362 Coefficient .0163 Rsqr 0.623
T-value for slope 2.87 2-tailed t-test 95 CI
w/ 5 degrees of freedom 2.57
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Vision 2025 Storm Scale Modeling
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Severe WeatherPrimary Customers/Partners
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Severe WeatherKey Products/Services
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Severe WeatherS T Roadmap

• (Insert Spreadsheet)