MODELING AND SIMULATION SUPPORT TO ENDURING FREEDOM MOBILITY PLANNING AND CRISIS RESPONSE

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MODELING AND SIMULATION SUPPORT TO ENDURING
FREEDOM MOBILITY PLANNING AND CRISIS RESPONSE

• Maj Thomas H. Irish, PhD, Randall G. Johnson,
• Lt Col Michael D. Shirley, Capt Kenneth S. Browne
• AIR MOBILITY COMMAND, STUDIES ANALYSIS DIVISION

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INTRODUCTION

• AMC Studies Analysis Division Tasks Prior to
  September 11
• Supported Programmatic Decisions 2 to 20 Years in
  the Future
• Studies Lasted Several Weeks to Several Months
• Analysis Tasks Immediately After September 11
• Decision Timeframe Shifted to Next Day or Two
• Studies Completed in Hours

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OVERVIEW

• AMC and ENDURING FREEDOM
• AMC Airlift Network
• MS Decision Support
• MS Tools
• Airlift Flow Model (AFM)
• Airlift Cycle Analysis Spreadsheet (ACAS)
• SimViewer
• MS Analysis Examples
• Summary

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AMC AND ENDURING FREEDOM

• AMCs National Defense Roles
• Airlift Personnel Cargo
• Aerial Refuel Deploying Aircraft
• Aerial Refuel Employing Aircraft
• Presentation Focuses on Airlift Role

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AMC AIRLIFT NETWORK

• AMC Airlift Network Components
• Cargo and Passenger Aircraft
• Aircrews
• Airfields
• Support Equipment and Personnel
• Time Phased Force Deployment Document (TPFDD)
  Defines Network Requirements
• Identifies Forces Requiring Airlift
• Pick-up Time and Location
• Drop-off Time and Location
• Planners/Analysts Must Match Components To TPFDD

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AIRFIELDS

• TPFDD Defines Two Types of Airfields
• Aerial Port of Embarkation (APOE)
• Aerial Port of Debarkation (APOD)
• APOE/APOD Pairs Often Too Far for Direct Flight
• Network Requires En Route Location
• Aircrew Stage Bases
• En Route Locations
• CONUS Home Stations

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AIRFIELD RESOURCES

• Airfield Resources Aggregated by Maximum On the
  Ground (MOG)
• Maximum Number of Aircraft Serviced
  Simultaneously and Still Depart Within Standard
  Planning Times
• Fuel Considered Separately

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AMC AIRLIFT NETWORK
En Route
APOE
APOD
Home Station
En Route
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ENDURING FREEDOM MS DECISION SUPPORT

• Pre-Deployment Support
• Evaluated Alternative Deployment Plans Airlift
  Networks
• Aircrew Staging Plans
• Aircraft Fleet Requirement
• Routing and En Route Locations
• Off-Load Mobility Enabler Requirements
• Results Provided to Deliberate Planners and
  Tanker Airlift Control Center

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ENDURING FREEDOM MS DECISION SUPPORT

• Initial Deployment Support
• Identified Potential Choke-Points and Alternative
  Solutions
• Fuel
• Mobility Handling Equipment
• Diplomatic Clearances
• Verified AMC Aircrew Staging Plan
• Analysis Briefed Daily to AMC Commander

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MS TOOLSAIRLIFT FLOW MODEL

• Highly Detailed Model of Strategic Airlift System
• Stochastic Discrete Event Simulation Model
• Government Owned and Developed
• Approximately 15 Years in Age
• Currently Maintained and Modified by Contractors
• Inputs
• TPFDD
• Airlift Fleet
• Airfield Resources (MOG/Fuel)
• Routes

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MS TOOLSAIRLIFT FLOW MODEL

• AFM Simulates Individual Aircraft Movements
  Through Airlift Network
• Plans Each Mission Individually
• Fuel Plans Each Leg Based on Cargo Loaded
• Ensures MOG/Fuel Available and Reserves Resources
  at Each Stop
• Executes Plan Subject to Stochastic Effects
• Aircraft Breaks
• Winds
• Ground Servicing

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MS TOOLSAIRLIFT FLOW MODEL

• Network Performance Output Examples
• Resource Utilization
• Airfield Congestion
• Daily Fuel Consumption by Base
• Cargo/Pax Delivery
• By Day
• By Location
• Unit Force Closure

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MS TOOLSACAS

• Aggregated Expected Value Model of Single Airlift
  Cycle
• Excel Spreadsheet with Macros
• Developed by XPY Analysts
• Implements AMC Planning Factors
• Inputs
• Aircraft Utilized
• APOE, APOD, En Routes

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MS TOOLSACAS

• ACAS Calculates Mean Tonnage and Pax Delivered by
  Day
• Based on Distances, Aircraft Utilized, Average
  Payloads, MOG, Planned Ground Times
• Can Also Calculate Days to Close Given
  Requirement
• Additional Output Statistics
• Mean Aircraft Interarrival Times
• Mean Aircrew Staging Requirement

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MS TOOLSSIMVIEWER

• SimViewer Is a PC-based Application for
  Visualizing Mobility Model Outputs
• Commercially Available Software
• Developed and Distributed by Daedalic Industries
  Inc.
• Input Format is .xml
• Main View is of Globe
• Aircraft Graphically Displayed Moving from Base
  to Base
• Drill-Down Capability on Aircraft and Airfields

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MS MODELING RESULTSAFM

• Mobility Planning Factors Prior to Execution
• Validated Network Throughput Planning Factor
• Planners Agreed to Build TPFDD not to Exceed A
  stons/day and B pax/day
• Using Inflated TPFDD and AFM, Estimated Network
  Capabilities Sufficient to Meet Goals
• Jet Fuel Consumption
• Provided DESC with Fuel Consumption Forecasts by
  Location

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MS MODELING RESULTSAFM

• APOD MOG Requirement Forecasts
• Limited Resources-Require Accurate Forecasts

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MS MODELING RESULTSAFM

• Execution What-if Analysis
• Provided to AMC Commander Staff
• Examples
• Case 1
• Weather Closure of Ramstien AB (En Route)
• Case 2
• Weather Closure of Lages AB (En Route)
• Case 3
• Fuel Allocation Reduction and Strategic En Route
  Location

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MS MODELING RESULTSAFM
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MS MODELING RESULTSACAS

• Primarily Used to Model Aircrew Requirements
• Critical Question Should Reserves be Activated?
• Focused on Two Requirements
• Crews Required to Activate the Network
• Sufficient Crews at Staging Bases to Man Arriving
  Aircraft
• Crews Required for Sustained Ops
• Cumulative 30 120 Day Flying Hour Caps not
  Exceeded

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MS MODELING RESULTSACAS

• Initial Aircrew Requirement
• Assumed 3 Independent Aircraft Cycles
• Crew Requirement Determined by Aircraft
  Inter-arrival Times
• Validated AMC Proposed Plan Could Meet Initial
  Requirement
• ACAS Crew Expected Value Requirement Slightly
  Less than Proposed Plan
• Additional Crews Required For System Variability
  and Crew Unavailability (Sickness, etc.)

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MS MODELING RESULTSACAS

• Crews Required For Sustained Operations
• Goal is to Keep 30 Day Cumulative Flying Hours
  Less Than 150 Hours
• Must Consider Crew Augmentation
• Augmented Crews Have Additional Crew Members ?
  Extends Flying Day Limit
• Used For Long Routes With No Staging

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MS MODELING RESULTSACAS

• Cumulative Flying Hours Below 150 Hour Cap
• Given 50 or Less Augmentation Utilized

C-17 Crewmember Cumulative Flying Hours
C-5 Crewmember Cumulative Flying Hours
Hours
Hours
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MS MODELING RESULTSSIMVIEWER

• Invaluable Aid in Visualizing and Troubleshooting
  AFM Model Runs
• Due to Short Lead Times, AFM Input Files Created
  Using Team Effort
• Complex and Interacting Nature of Files Could and
  Did Result in Input Errors
• SimViewer Used to Rapidly ID Input Problems
• SimViewer Use Lead To AFM Logic Error Discovery
• Following Off-Load Operation, Aircraft Not
  Avoiding No-Fly Zones
• Contractors Able to Fix Problem IDd by Using
  SimViewer

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MS MODEL RESULTSSIMVIEWER
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SUMMARY

• Analysis Team Able to Rapidly Transition to
  Increased Study Velocity Due to
• Fast Running Models
• Intelligently Designed Input/Output GUIs
• In Depth Knowledge of Model Capabilities and
  Limitations
• Proactive Approach
• Strong Team Effort
• AMC Enduring Freedom Analysis Team Success
  Recognized by USAF
• 2001 USAF MS Analysis Team Award