International Energy Workshop July 7, 2005 Kyoto, Japan

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International Energy Workshop
July 7, 2005
Kyoto, Japan Market
Penetration Analysis of FCVs in Japan by using
MARKAL ENDO Eiichi Energy Systems Analysis
Team, National Institute of Advanced
Industrial Science and Technology
(AIST) endo.e_at_aist.go.jp
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Background 1 ?FCV Roadmap of Japan

2020
2030
Number of FCVs (million)
5
15
Their share of total vehicles (approx. )
6
20
Hydrogen cost (JPY/Nm3)
100
70
60
50
40
Fig. 1 Scenario of FCVs toward hydrogen energy
society of Japan shown in the governmental
energy outlook in 2030.
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Background 2 ?US market scenario of FCVs

100
50
20
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2030
2050
2020
Fig. 2 The US National Academies possible
optimistic market scenario of hydrogen FCVs in
The Hydrogen Economy.
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• Purposes
• The purpose of present study is
• - to analyze possibility of market penetration of
  hydrogen FCVs focusing on installation period and
  installed capacity under different carbon tax,
  and
• to propose appropriate policy to achieve
  national target for FCV by comparing results of
  the analysis with the FCV Roadmap of Japan and
  with the US National Academies market scenario
  of hydrogen FCVs
• based on the energy systems analysis by using
  MARKAL

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• Model and Analysis
• ?Characteristics of MARKAL
• - an optimization type energy system model that
  uses multi-objective linear programming
• covers a country or an area,
  multi-period, demand-driven
  and technology-oriented
• ?Energy system model of Japan by MARKAL
• from primary energy to final energy consumption,
  all energy demand sectors, from 1988 to 2052, 13
  periods, each period is 5 years, 260 energy
  technologies and 40 energy carriers
• objective function which shows trade-off between
  total system cost and CO2 emissions is minimized
  under different trade-off coefficients
• trade-off coefficient is regarded as carbon tax,
  but energy demand is fixed without relation to
  the coefficients

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Fig.3 Outline of the modeled energy system of
Japan. 11 types of passenger vehicles are focused
on.
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• Assumptions 1
• ?Energy demand
• MARKAL requires useful energy demand by sector.
• It is estimated based on that in 2000 and
  following 5 indices by sector
• industry indices of industrial production
  residential number of household,
  commercial floor space, passenger person-km,
  freight ton-km
• up to 2030 5 indices are shown in the
  governmental energy outlook
• After that they are assumed considering their
  trend and correlation with projected population

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peak in 2006
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Fig.4 The governmental population projections for
Japan. The medium variant is used for assuming
indices.
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governmental projection
extrapolation
Fig.5 Projected indices by sector. These indices
by sector until 2030 in the governmental energy
outlook are extrapolated considering their trends
and correlations with population.
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Fig. 6 Estimated final energy consumption in
Japan based on that in 2000 and assumed indices
by sector. Final energy consumption as a result
of analysis is smaller than this, because demand
technologies which have higher energy efficiency
are selected in the MARKAL optimization process.
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• Assumptions 2
• ?Fossil fuel prices
• Based on the World Energy Outlook 2004 up to
  2030
• 2010 2020 2030
• Oil (/barrel) 22 26 29
• LNG (/MBtu) 3.9 4.4 4.8
• Coal (/t) 40 42 44
• - From 2030 to 2050, averaged weighted price
  increasing rate, about 1/year is assumed

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Assumptions 3 ?Characteristics of passenger
vehicles - 11 types of passenger vehicles are
modeled gasoline ICE, gasoline HEV, gasoline
reforming FCV, LPG ICE, diesel ICE, electric,
hydrogen ICE, hydrogen FCV, methanol ICE,
methanol reforming FCV and CNG ICE - As
characteristics of passenger vehicles, following
two are considered Vehicle efficiency energy
efficiency from tank to wheel including
regeneration in brake Vehicle cost ratio ratio
of vehicle cost compared with the cost of
gasoline ICE vehicle
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60
50
36
26
15
20
Fig. 6 Assumed vehicle efficiencies.
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1.55
1.36
1.20
1.21
Fig. 7 Assumed vehicle cost ratios. Gasoline HEV
and hydrogen FCV are assumed the same vehicle
cost after 2030.
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• Assumptions 4
• ?Hydrogen supply
• - 8 process technologies by feedstock or energy
  source, natural gas, LPG, naphtha, heavy oil,
  steam coal, coke oven gas, electrolysis, thermal
  splitting by HTGR large and small plants with
  transportation distribution, are modeled.
• They basically corresponds to the hydrogen
  filling station demonstration project in Japan
  and hydrogen supply chain cost analyses in The
  Hydrogen Economy by the US national academies.
• Hydrogen production cost could not explicitly
  calculated.

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Results of analysis 1
diesel ICE
LPG ICE
Carbon tax rate 600JPY/t-C
1200JPY/t-C
2000JPY/t-C
hydrogen FCV
gasoline HEV
gasoline ICE
2400JPY/t-C
4000JPY/t-C
24000JPY/t-C
Fig.6 Vehicle mixes in the passenger car sector
in Japan. Hydrogen FCV has no market penetration
until 2050 without carbon tax. But Carbon tax
makes introduction of hydrogen FCVs earlier and
more.
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Results of analysis 2
Approx. 90 of passenger vehicles
Fig.7 Market penetration of vehicles under carbon
tax rate 2400JPY/t-C. Under the governmental
carbon tax concrete plan, gasoline HEV plays a
more important roll than that in the US National
Academies market scenario.
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Results of analysis 3
Fig.8 Market penetration of hydrohen FCVs by
carbon tax rate. No Hydrogen FCV is introduced
without carbon tax until 2050. Introduction of
hydrogen FCV becomes earlier and more as carbon
tax rate increases. But no hydrogen FCV is
introduced before 2020.
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• Summary and Conclusion
• FCVs are not introduced without carbon tax until
  2050.
• Carbon tax accelerates generation change, from
  conventional vehicles to gasoline HEVs and
  hydrogen FCVs.
• Introduction of hydrogen FCV becomes earlier and
  more as carbon tax rate increases. In the case
  2400 JPY/t-C, hydrogen FCV is fairly introduced
  in 2030, but no hydrogen FCV is introduced before
  2020.
• Around 2030 gasoline HEV plays a more
  significant roll than that in the US National
  Academies scenario.
• - Based on the results of analysis, to achieve
  the national target 5 million (approx. 6 of
  total vehicles) in 2020 and 15 million (approx.
  20) in 2030 of Japan, hydrogen FCVs are required
  drastic cost reduction from the assumed one or
  need subsidy for accelerating initial market
  penetration.

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