Computer Models for Seasonal Climate Prediction: What they can tell us, and what they cant tell us

1
Computer Models for Seasonal Climate
PredictionWhat they can tell us, and what they
cant tell us

• Lisa Goddard
• International Research Institute for Climate
  Prediction
• The Earth Institute of Columbia University
• Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
• Palisades, NY

2
General
3
Seasonal Prediction

• Atmosphere
• Ocean
• Land
• Ice

4
(No Transcript)
5
This is the kind of forecast that uncertaintyin
the system dictates not a specific
quantity,but the probability forsome range of
outcomes.
For more information on IRI andits seasonal
climate forecasts, visit http//iri.columbia.edu/
http//iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/
6
SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN SEASONAL CLIMATE
FORECASTS

• Inherent uncertainty in climate system
  (internal dynamics of atmosphere or chaos)
• Imperfections in computer models (small
  scale processes not resolved physical
  processes/interactions not included
  topography not resolved)
• Uncertainty in ocean temperature predictions
• (impact of weather see (1) on sea surface
  temp.s limited understanding of variability
  outside of tropical Pacific)

7
(No Transcript)