Analyses of Technical Options for Mitigating Environmental Emissions from the Urban Transport System

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Analyses of Technical Options for Mitigating
Environmental Emissions from the Urban Transport
Systemsin India

• Presentation by
• Dr. Sudhakar Yedla
• Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research,
  Mumbai INDIA

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Team at IGIDR...

• Prof. Jyoti Parikh
• Dr. Sudhakar Yedla
• Dr. Anjana Das
• three Research Associates
• Time frame of the work - 1998-2001

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Urban Transportation and the Environment ...

• Transportation has been the major source of urban
  pollution
• Major share of CO, VOC and NOx pollution is
  coming from Urban Transportation
• Ambient air quality falling below WHO air quality
  standards
• Growing as one of the major GHG contributors
• Alarming trends of vehicular growth in cities
  like Delhi and Mumbai

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Measures Taken So Far ...

• Gasoline lead phase out program
• Diesel sulphur phase out program
• Control on the entry of older polluting
  vehicles in to CBD of cities
• Conversion of diesel buses to CNG buses
• Improved road network by means of a network of
  flyovers
• Implementation of MRTS

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Further .. Issues in Urban Transportation

• Comprehensive analysis of energy demands and
  emission estimation
• Analysis of various potential technical options
  to mitigate environmental emission and achieve
  energy efficiency
• Cost - effective options to achieve reduction in
  environmental emissions (both local and GHG) from
  Urban transport sector
• Adaptation issues like barriers and required
  policies

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Objective of ARRPEEC - TR I
Objective Analyzing the technical options for
mitigation of GHG and other harmful emissions
from the urban transport system the following
three issues are analyzed

• Issues
• Demand for urban transport services and
  associated energy demand and environmental
  emissions (both local and global)
• Analyze and select the technical options for
  energy efficiency improvement and mitigation of
  GHGs and other harmful emissions from the urban
  transport system
• Identify and rank the barriers to the
  introduction of selected technical options to
  mitigate environmental emissions from the urban
  transport system

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Cases of ..
Delhi Mumbai Time frame for analysis 1998-2020
For Delhi the base year is 1997
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Issue - I Analysis of Urban Transport Energy
Demands and Emissions
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Scenarios for Energy Demand forecast and Emission
estimation..
Business as Usual (BAU) scenario - annual GDP
growth rate of 5 - Delhi annual GDP growth
rate of 6.6 - Mumbai Alternative scenarios -
AS I 50 higher annual GDP growth rate than
BAU AS II 25 higher annual GDP growth rate
than BAU AS III 50 lower annual GDP growth
rate than BAU AS IV 25 lower annual GDP growth
rate than BAU LEAP model was used to project
travel energy demands and environmental
emissions
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Travel Demand

• Per capita travel demand in Delhi 17-31 km
  during 1997-2020
• Share of motorized transport in total supply
  40-45
• Share of bus declines from 53 to 48
• Total vehicular population 8.85 million by 2020
• Mumbai
• per capita travel demand in Mumbai 8.2 to 26 km
  during 1998-2020
• 2.5 million vehicles by 2020 with growth rate
  7.7 (1998-2020)
• PKM share of bus increasing

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Travel Demand ...
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Travel Demand ...

• Alternative Scenarios
• In Optimistic growth rate the vehicular stock
  increases in Delhi by many folds.
• Pessimistic assumption of growth rate results in
  decline of vehicular stock
• Increased ownership of personalized vehicles
• AS - 34 limits the ownership with
  2-wheelers/1000 population decreasing from 134 in
  1997 to 21 in 2015.
• Mumbai
• AS - I - 14 fold increase in vehicular stock
• In the pessimistic growth assumptions, vehicular
  stock increases by 1.4 and 2.38 times under AS
  III and IV, respectively by 2020

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Energy Demand

• Total energy demand 42.2 137 million GJ
  (1997-2020)
• Passenger transport dominates with share gt 80
• Natural gas demand 1.16 billion cubic meters by
  2020
• Gasoline demand in 2020 would be 2.35 times
  higher than the current value
• In optimistic scenarios (I II) annual growth
  rates of 8.9 and 6.8 are noticed
• Mumbai
• Total Energy demand 19.1 - 60.3 million
  GJ (1998-2020)
• Passenger Transport share declining
• In optimistic scenarios (I II) annual growth
  rates of 9.7 and 7.4 are noticed

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Energy Demand ...
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Environmental Emissions

• Delhi total pollution load declines from
  412,000t 328,000 t (1998-2020)
• By 2020, two wheelers and cars contribute 80 HC
  emissions in Delhi
• Two wheelers alone contribute 70 of CO2
  emissions
• Annual Pollution load in Mumbai declines by 40
• Particulates, SOx and NOx declines due to the
  decline in diesel usage
• CO2 emissions by 2020 under BAU in Delhi would be
  2.57 times the present value
• In Mumbai it would be 2.7 times
• CO2 emissions in Delhi are 2.4 times higher than
  Mumbai at any given time

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Issue - II
Technical Options to Mitigate Environmental
Emissions
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Various Technical Options

• Emission Reduction Potential (ERP)
• Energy Saving Potential
• Economic Feasibility (MAC based on Life-cycle
  Operating Cost)
• - all pollutants are considered
• - only to identify the options (local pollutant
  friendly options could not be avoided though
  some are not controlling GHG)
• Delhi CNG Bus Mumbai CNG Car
• CNG Car CNG Bus
• 4-S,2-W CNG 3-W
• BOV 3-W

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Pollution Abatement Cost of Each Alternative

• Life cycle operating costs were compared
• Abatement cost
• difference of the life-cycle operating cost of
  the technological alternative and the existing
  technology to be replaced divided by the
  emission mitigation potential of the option

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Pollution Abatement Cost of Each Alternative
Delhi CNG Car PAC 104.4 Rs/Kg Difference in
PAC of CNG car and 4-S 2-W is 70 Considering
that only GHG would change the PAC
trends Mumbai CNG bus proved uneconomical (PAC
0.34 Rs/Kg) CNG car PAC 83.9 Rs/Kg BOV 3-W are
found most environmental friendly and
economically feasible negative value of PAC
indicate that the options have relatively low LCC
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Least Cost Options (Optimal Mix of Vehicles)
Table 1 Optimal Vehicular-mix at Selected CO2
Emission Reduction Targets in Delhi, (Percentage)
Total transport cost for Delhi 15.1 B Total
CO2 emission 30 m tons CNG-bus supplied the
highest share Optimal Vehicular-mix at Selected
CO2 Emission Reduction Targets in Delhi,
(Percentage)
 
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Least cost option
Total transportation cost 4.0 B Total CO2
emission 12 m tons Diesel bus supplied
highest share of PKM Optimal Vehicular-mix at
Selected CO2 Emission Reduction Targets in Mumbai
(Percentage)
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Emission of local pollutants
Delhi TSP ? 2-24 for 5-25 CO2 reduction
targets Mumbai TSP ? 5-36 for 5-25 CO2
reduction targets Emission levels of local
pollutants at selected CO2 reduction targets in
selected years in Delhi, 103 tons
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Local emission level at selected CO2 reduction
targets in selected years in Mumbai, 103 tons
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Marginal Abatement Cost
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Issue - III
Identification and Ranking of Barriers
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Barriers

• Analytic Hierarchy Process -
• - qualitative and quantitative criteria
• - actors opinion
• Ranking of Barriers to the Adoption of Selected
  Options in Delhi

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Barriers
Ranking of Barriers to the Adoption of Selected
Options in Mumbai
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Conclusions

• The analysis of transport demand over the time
  horizon (1997-2020) indicates that Mumbai inspite
  of its growing demand for personal mode of
  transport remains dominated by the public
  transport system. Under BAU scenario-
• per capita travel demand Delhi -- 17 km to
  31 km
• Mumbai -- 8.2 km to 26 km
• 4-stroke 2-wheelers, CNG cars and buses are
  better alternatives for Delhi
• For Mumbai the options are based mostly on public
  transport

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Conclusions

• CO2 mitigation efforts are less expensive in
  Mumbai compared to Delhi. Marginal abatement cost
  of CO2 under 15 reduction target costs 40 USD
  and 20 USD (approx.) in Delhi and Mumbai,
  respectively.
• CO2 mitigation strategies resulted in control of
  local pollutants considerably.
• In Mumbai, reduction levels of local pollutants
  are higher than the target CO2 reduction levels.
  This indicates that the environmental management
  and pollution control efforts in Mumbai yield
  better benefits.
• Lack of resources and infrastructure is a major
  barrier for the implementation of CNG technology.
  Additional cost is second biggest barrier for the
  CNG technology implementation.
• Additional cost and technology availability are
  major barriers to these environmental friendly
  options and policy maker have a major role in
  promoting these cleaner technologies.