Title: U.S. and World Cotton Economic Outlook November 2003 Prepared by: Economic Services National Cotton Council
1U.S. and World Cotton Economic OutlookNovember
2003Prepared byEconomic ServicesNational
Cotton Council
2Macroeconomic Environment
3Change in U.S. Real GDP
4Change in U.S. Real Personal Consumption
Expenditures
5Civilian Unemployment Rate
6Dow Jones Industrials
7U.S. Crude Oil Spot Price
DOE 2003 Outlook
8U.S. Federal Budget Surplus (CBO)
9Real GDP Growthin Selected Countries
10Euro(Currency per U.S. Dollar)
11Textile Exchange Rate Index (Countries,
excluding China, Exporting Cotton Textiles to US)
12U.S. Net Farm Income
USDA November 2003
13U.S. Cotton Supply
14December Cotton Futures
Cents per Pound
15U.S. Cotton Area
162003 U.S. Cotton Crop Yield Estimates
Lb. per Harvested Acre
2002 2003 5-Yr. Actual Estimated Average
Southeast 486 753 603 Mid-South 800 879
700 Southwest 538 467 488 West 1,400
1,303 1,230 ALL UPLAND 651 715 638
ALL ELS 1,342 1,260 1,153 ALL COTTON 665
722 648
17U.S. Yield Per Harvested Acre
18US Upland Cotton Abandonment
19U.S. Cotton Supply
20U.S. Cotton Demand
21U.S. Net Domestic Consumption Cotton
22U.S. Net Domestic Consumption Cotton
23Net Imports of Cotton Textiles
24U.S. Imports of Cotton Products
15.7 million bales
17.4 million bales
25U.S. Imports from China
Million Bales
26U.S. Cotton Product Imports from China(No Longer
Subject to Quotas as of Jan. 1, 2002)
27January 1, 2005
- We are slightly over 1 year away from elimination
of textile quotas. - At that time, tariffs will be the only protection
and U.S. rates are much lower than other
countries - US at 9
- Brazil at 40-50
- China at 20-36
28U.S. Cotton Mill Use
Million Bales
29The World Market U.S. Cotton Exports
30World Cotton Production
31World Cotton Production
32Change in 03 Cotton Production Projected
Increase of 4.2 mil bales relative to 2002
33World Cotton Mill Use
34World Cotton Mill Use
35Change in 03 Mill UseProjected decrease of
530,000 bales relative to 2002
36U.S. Cotton Exports
37Top Customers for U.S. Raw Cotton
- 2002
- County (000 Bales)
- Mexico 2,211
- China 1,895
- Turkey 1,523
- Indonesia 845
- Thailand 576
- Taiwan 532
- 2003
- Country (000 Bales)
- China 2,669
- Mexico 1,329
- Indonesia 476
- Turkey 423
- Canada 324
- Korean Rep. 298
38U.S. Cotton Exports
39World Cotton Ending Stocks
40U.S. Supply and Demand
Million Bales Beginning Stocks 7.45 5.38 Producti
on 17.21 18.22 Imports 0.07 0.05 Total
Supply 24.72 23.65 Mill Use 7.27 6.20 Exports 11.9
0 13.20 Total Offtake 19.17 19.40 Ending
Stocks 5.38 4.25 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 28.1 21.9
2002/03
2003/04
41World Supply and Demand
Million Bales Beginning Stocks 46.95 36.76 Produc
tion 87.99 92.14 Mill Use 98.22 97.69 Ending
Stocks 36.76 31.66 Stocks-to-Use Ratio 37.4
32.4
2003/04
2002/03
42Producers
Cooperatives