A photographic collage depicting the societal, economic and ecological impacts of severe weather associated with four Rossby wave-trains that encircled the globe during November 2002.

1
David Parsons NCAR/EOL/MMM Co-chair, North
American Regional Committee
A photographic collage depicting the societal,
economic and ecological impacts of severe weather
associated with four Rossby wave-trains that
encircled the globe during November 2002.
2
What is THORPEX?
THORPEX a Global Atmospheric Research Programme
is an international research programme to
accelerate improvements in the accuracy of 1 to
14-day high-impact weather forecasts for the
benefit of society and the economy. THORPEX
will make progress by enhancing international
collaboration between the research and
operational-forecasting communities and with
users of forecast products. THORPEX is
coordinated within the World Meteorological
Organization. Fifteen countries (Australia,
Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, Iceland,
India, Korea, Norway, Russia, South Africa,
Spain, UK, US) and the European Commission are
leading the THORPEX effort. Participation
includes developing (the 54 countries of African
for example) and developed world. Thirty six
countries will be represented at the 1st Intl
Science Symposium. The THORPEX web site is
http//www.wmo.int/thorpex The THORPEX 10-year
implementation phase begins 1 January 2005.  
  International Science Plan Version 2 September
2003  
3
Four Interrelated and Coordinated THORPEX
Sub-programmes

• Observing Systems
• Data Assimilation and Observing Strategies
• Predictability and Dynamical Processes
• Societal and Economic Impacts.
• Includes research activities, several field
  campaigns, and societal and economic
  demonstration projects.
• Combine efforts to work on grand challenges
  (design of the next generation integrated global
  observing network, research underpinnings for
  paradigm shifts in operational prediction
  operational forecasts (i.e., combining of
  multi-national modeling efforts, expansion of
  adaptive nature of forecast systems, etc))

4
THORPEX -- Global Perspective

• THORPEX A Global Atmospheric Research Programme
  is a once in our lifetime opportunity focusing
  the talents of the worlds research and
  operational communities to better understand and
  predict the atmosphere with profound implications
  for society.
• Past opportunities and efforts include..
• The International Geophysical Year (1957-58) that
  followed the advent of the upper-air network in
  the post-war era, the recognized needs to develop
  satellite measurements and the desire to solve
  geophysical research challenges through
  international collaboration.
• The first GARP effort that concluded with FGGE
  (First Global GARP Experiment) in 1978-79 and was
  motivated by the first opportunity for
  quantitative global measurements.
• These efforts were also recognized by and closely
  coordinated within the World Meteorological
  Organization.

5
Why another GARP-type effort?

• GARP was successful leaving a legacy of a global
  observing system and global modeling for climate
  and numerical weather prediction (NWP). One of
  the grand scientific and technical
  accomplishments of the 20th century.
• However.
• Progress in global NWP has been steady, but
  relatively slow.
• Failures still occur in the prediction of high
  impact weather and in efforts to mitigate
  disastrous weather events (18 billion in US)
• NA research focus is elsewhere (drift toward
  climate and small-scale studies)
• Strong economic benefits in developed world (¼
  of US and CA GNPs are sensitive to weather often
  impacting profit margins) and strong public
  safety issues in developing world
• Observations for even the 1-day forecast extends
  well beyond our national borders (therefore a
  international effort is required)
• Fundamental changes in global observing systems
  (satellite revolution, proposed changes in
  in-situ sensors)
• Hypothesis that many higher impact events that
  occur on the mesoscale are driven by organized
  global dynamic features (i.e., greater
  predictability than many would expect)

6
MOTIVATION--NWP is a remarkable accomplishment,
but progress has been relatively slow--
7
57 billion dollar weather-related disasters
between years 1980 and 2003. Seven occurred
during 1998 alone and the 48 during the 1988-2003
period totaled unadjusted damages/costs of nearly
215 billion. In a typical year, between 300 and
400 people in the US die each from hazardous
weather (peak years 1000-10,000)
8
Perceived Forecast Failures

• 2000 and 2002 regionally over-predicted east
  coast snow falls
• Fall 1999, two storms from cut-off lows produce
  snow in N Vermont and N NY
• 16 Sept 1999, Hurricane Floyd after landfall (gt1
  billion in damage and 16 deaths) in NE US
• 5-9 Jan 1998 Montreal ice storm, in the US
  freezing rain occurs in areas where only rain is
  predicted
• 17-18 Oct 1998, SE Texas floods, some errors in
  location and magnitude, 1 billion in damage and
  31 deaths
• 19 Jan. 1997 Florida freeze, 100,000 farm workers
  unemployed or displaced, 300 million in crop
  damage in one region alone

• 7-8 Feb. 2002, Pacific NW cyclone with damaging
  winds, extensive power outages in Oregon
• 13-14 Dec. 2001, west coast mountains experience
  heavy orographic snows
• Above examples from 10-15 significant intensity,
  timing and location errors per year of storms in
  the Pacific NW
• 10 June 2001 Houston impacts of TS Allison, 22
  deaths, 4-5 billion in damage, medical emergency
  (5 hospitals in flood plain)
• 17 June 2001, Flooding from remnants of TS
  Allison on NE US
• 24-26 Jan. 2000 surprise snow , storm Carolina
  to NE with all-time record Carolina snowfall

9
Observational Requirements for NA Weather
10
Moores Law for Intel
Satellite remote-sensing revolution
11
1st Example Central European Floods
Prague
August 2002
Courtesy of Mel Shapiro
12
The Storm
France
Italy
Dundee Satellite Station 1241 UTC 11 Aug. 2002
Courtesy of Mel Shapiro
13
Dresden Germany
Courtesy of Mel Shapiro
14
Central European Floods
Cyclogenesis off Japan
Courtesy of Shapiro and Thorpe
15
2nd Example Minnesota Flood 9-11 June 2002
Moderate drought on 1 June Widespread rainfall
in excess of 5 inches. Flood with gt340
million in federal disaster aid. 80 of homes
and businesses damaged in Roseau, MN Locally
most significant flood on record.
16
Minnesota Flood 9-11 June 2002
17
Wisc. flood, previous wave packet ?
Convection along Mei-Yu Front
18
1st Downstream Cyclogenesis
19
Mn flood from frontal overrunning
2nd Downstream cyclogenesis
20
THORPEX Connection to North American Ensemble
Efforts

• THORPEX proposes a THORPEX Interactive Grand
  Global Ensemble (TIGGE).
• The NA efforts is a pioneer in this direction of
  a TIGGE (test scientific hypotheses overcome
  hurdles in communication, impact of model
  differences on user fields, examination of model
  physics, bias correction, forecast impact, etc)
• Full TIGGE to be tested during campaign periods
  (i.e., IPY/Pacific Regional Campaign in winters
  2007-08 and 2008-09)

21
North American Participation in 2003 Atlantic
Regional ExperimentObservational Phase 13 Oct
12 Dec

• IOP - ran from 13 Oct. until 12 Dec.
• 21 TReC cases of targeted observations

TReC_023 Heavy Mediterranean rainfall Severe
flooding Marseilles 2nd December

TReC_026 prolonged, heavy snow gale-force
winds Snow in Boston 8th December
22
Upcoming Events

• See http//www.wmo.int/thorpex
• Intl Science Symposium (6-10 Dec 2004 in
  Montreal)
• 1st International Workshop on TIGGE
  Implementation (1-4? March 2005, ECMWF, UK
  David Richardson -- lead)
• International Workshop focusing on Users of
  Ensemble Forecast Products (Decision Making,
  Decision Support Tools) -- (Autumn 2005, Paris,
  FR David Parsons lead), limited to 100
  participants