Health benefits of reducing PM10 through the Seoul Air Quality Management Plan

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Health benefits of reducing PM10 through the
Seoul Air Quality Management Plan

• June 5, 2007
• Jeongim Park

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Outline
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Seoul Air Quality Management Plan (SAQMP)
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Study Scope and Methods
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Premature DeathsRelated Benefits from SAQMP
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Summary and Future Improvements
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Seoul Metropolitan Area
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Seoul Metropolitan Area
Gyeonggi
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Air Pollution Trends in Seoul
Tokyo
New York
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SAQMPs PM10 Goal Statement
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Special Law for Improving Air Quality in Seoul
Metropolitan Area (2004)
You will see the Yellow sea from Namsan, the
center of Seoul!
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SAQMP measures (partial list)
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Emission Reduction Potentials from SAQMP
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Study Goal

• To estimate the health benefits from implementing
  the SAQMP in 2014
• PM10 reduction
• Premature mortality (acute effect)

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BenMAP Framework
Data Input to BenMAP
Data Input to BenMAP
Results from BenMAP
Population Estimates
Population Data
Geographic Grid Definitions
Population Exposure
Air Quality Monitoring
Air Quality Modeling
Health Functions
Incidence Prevalence
Adverse Health Effects
Valuation Functions
Economic Benefits
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Analysis Materials
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Population (year 2001)
9,200 347,780
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PM10 Distribution 2001 Monitoring
4988 ug/m3
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Air Quality Modeling MM5/CMAQ
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PM10 Distribution 2001 Modeling
24106 ug/m3
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PM10 Distribution 2014 BAU
27122 ug/m3
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PM10 Distribution 2014 Control
1254 ug/m3
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?PM10 (2014 BAU 2014 Control)
1575 ug/m3
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Health Impact Functions
CHANGE in health effects (?y) from the
baseline to the control scenario
CHANGE in pollution (?PM) from the baseline to
the control scenario
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Health Effects Change-required data
Health Effects Change
Air Quality Change
Effect Estimate
Population

Incidence

• Concentration Units ppm, ppb, µg/m3
• Measurements maximum, average
• Measurement Intervals hourly, daily, annual
• Data Sources Air Quality Monitoring data
  (NIER) Air Quality Modeling (using CAPSS)

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Health Effects Change-required data
Health Effects Change
Air Quality Change
Effect Estimate
Population

Incidence

• Pollution Effect Units
• change in health effect rate per µg/m3, ppm,
  ppb
• unit change in health effect per µg/m3, ppm, ppb
• Measurements Interval hourly, daily, annual
• Data Sources epidemiological studies

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Health Effects Change-required data
Health Effects Change
Air Quality Change
Effect Estimate
Population

Incidence

• Health Effects Units
• mortality number of deaths per 100,000
  individual risk of death
• morbidity number of new bronchitis cases per
  100,000 annual risk of an asthma attack number
  of hospital admissions per 100,000
• Measurements Interval daily, annual
• Data sources National Statistical Office
  National Health Institutes Published papers, etc.

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Saved lives from (2014 BAU 2014 Control)
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Saved lives from (2014 BAU 2014 Control)
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Value of Statistical Life (VSL)

• Valuation Methods
• Revealed preference approaches
• Hedonic pricing (ex) labor market, property
  markets
• Averting behavior (ex) smoke alarms
• Stated preference approaches
• Contingent valuation method
• Choice Modeling Choice experiment(or Conjoint
  analysis)
• Resource Cost techniques
• Cost of Illness(COI)
• Human Capital Approach(HCA)
• Benefit Transfer
• The transfer of existing estimates (STUDY CASE)
  to a new study which is different from the study
  for which the values were originally
  estimated(POLICY CASE)

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Benefit Transfer

• Benefit Transfer Method
• VSL(Korea, 2001) VSL(USA,2000)Radj
• Radj (ppp(2000)kOREA /ppp(2000)USA )
• ? per capita GDP(2000)kOREA/per capita
  GDP(2000)USA
• ? GDP deflator(2001)kOREA/GDP
  deflator(2000)KOREA
• PPP Purchasing power parity

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Summary

• PM10-related health benefits from implementing
  the SAQMP were analyzed using the BenMAP software
• More than 2,000 avoided premature deaths were
  estimated with putting the SAQMP into action
  (short-term effects only)
• The economic value of the deaths avoided was
  estimated to 4.8billion.

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Thank you!!Health benefits of reducing PM10
through the Seoul Air Quality Management Plan