This%20is%20a%20preview%20version%20of%20two%20different%20presentations%20we%20are%20in%20the%20process%20of%20preparing

1
Common Misconceptions by Climate Change Deniers

• This is a preview version of two different
  presentations we are in the process of preparing
• 1. A Quick reference set of points for use in
  another presentation when denier points come up.
  Hyperlinks will take you to a set of quick
  answers to common points.
• 2. A fuller discussion of the common
  misconceptions to be used as a stand alone
  presentation or in conjunction with others.
• PLEASE SEE WEBSITE FOR UPDATED VERSION OF THIS
  PPT
• www.vicphysics.org/climateworkshop.html

2
Common Misconceptions by Climate Change Deniers
Hyperlinks will go direct to appropriate page in
final version

• It is getting cooler.
• The Middle Ages were warmer.
• Ice core data shows that CO2 rises before the
  temperature does.
• The extra CO2 is not from fossil fuels.
• CO2 makes up a very small proportion of the
  atmosphere.
• Water vapour is a more important greenhouse gas
  than carbon dioxide.
• The warming is caused by natural and solar cycles
• The climate is always changing.

3
Common Misconceptions by Climate Change Deniers

• Warming is good.
• Technology will eventually solve the problem.
• Tackling climate change is economically
  dangerous.
• The increased CO2 from the developing world will
  exceed any reduction the developed world can do.
• Climate models are just computer models
• Correlation not causation
• Global warming is just a theory
• Many scientists disagree with the IPCC
  conclusions

4
It is getting cooler the warming has stopped

• The earths climate is influenced by many
  factors. A time span of several decades is
  needed to observe any trend.
• These claims rely on cherry picking a
  particularly hot year 1998 the hottest year on
  record.
• But choose 1996 or 1997 Then EVERY year since
  those has been hotter!
• The ten hottest years ever recorded were all in
  the last 14 years.

5
It is getting cooler the warming has stopped

• What the deniers do with data like this

2009 estimated
6
(No Transcript)
7
It is getting cooler the warming has stopped

• Other factors include the El Niño La Niña
  cycle (ENSO)
• 1998 was an exceptionally strong El Niño.
• We seem to be heading upward again now.

8
It is getting cooler the warming has stopped

• Other factors also include the Sun red line
  curve
• We expect some cooling to 2008 as both ENSO (blue
  curve) and Sun (red) are in a low phase.
• Problem will be when they go high again in the
  next few years!

9
It is getting cooler the warming has stopped

• A better indicator of total Earth heat is the
  Ocean Heat Content Anomaly. Most warming is
  accumulated in the oceans and ice

Global energy accumulation and net heat emission
Nordell and Gervet
10
It is getting cooler the warming has stopped

• A better indicator of total Earth heat is the
  Ocean Heat Content Anomaly. Here is one estimate

11
It is getting cooler the warming has stopped

• And another from the CSIRO
• Ocean heat content is going up relentlessly!

12

• A different approach is to measure the total
  energy coming in from the Sun and the total being
  radiated out to space.
• If they are equal the Earths temperature will
  remain constant, but if not ...

13
It is getting cooler the warming has stopped

• By measuring reflected and emitted radiation, and
  comparing it to incoming solar radiation
  scientists have concluded that more energy is
  being absorbed from the Sun than is emitted back
  to space, throwing the Earth's energy "out of
  balance" and warming the planet.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration
(NASA) (Washington, D.C.), The Earth Institute at
Columbia University (New York), and Lawrence
Berkeley National Laboratory (California)
14
It is getting cooler the warming has stopped

• Footnote
• Some climate scientists are predicting that
  surface temperatures will remain static or even
  fall slightly over the next few years, before
  warming resumes. Their predictions are based
  largely on the idea that changes in long-term
  fluctuation in ocean surface temperatures known
  as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the
  Pacific Decadal Oscillation will bring cooler sea
  surface temperatures.
• Michael Le Page New Scientist 15 August 2008
• So the deniers may be around for a little while
  yet!

15
Common Pre(Mis)conceptions by Climate Change
Deniers

• The Middle Ages were warmer
• Any evidence is anecdotal, and restricted to
  specific regions.
• Even if they were a little warmer that is
  irrelevant as the reasons for the current warmth
  are quite different.
• The rate at which the temperature is currently
  rising is much greater than has been seen in any
  historical time.
• The temperatures we are heading for are much
  hotter than any experienced in history.

16
The Middle Ages were warmer.
Medieval warm period may have been about the same
as recent averages The Rate of increase certainly
was not. Where we are heading is very much higher.
2,000 years
Different colours are different
determinations Black line is thermometer records
17
The Middle Ages were warmer.
20,000 years
Period of human history
18
Common Misconceptions by Climate Change Deniers

• Ice core data shows that CO2 rises before the
  temperature does.
• There are many factors that can either trigger an
  ice age or bring the earth out of an ice age.
• A rise in the temperature will release CO2 from
  the oceans, CO2 has a positive feedback effect,
  i.e. it increases the temperature further, and so
  on .

19
Common Misconceptions by Climate Change Deniers

• 4. The extra CO2 is not from fossil fuels
• Yes, it is.
• Carbon has two isotopes Carbon 12 and Carbon 13
  (one extra neutron in the nucleus).
• Fossil fuels have less of the Carbon 13 isotope.
• The proportion of Carbon 13 in the atmosphere is
  decreasing.

20
The proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere is too
small to matter.
Composition of Air (by volume) Composition of Air (by volume)
Oxygen 20.95
Nitrogen 78.09
Argon 0.933
Carbon Dioxide 0.04 (used to be 0.03)
Water vapour 0 3

• The amount of CO2 is small but crucial!
• The 99.9 (O2 N2 A) have no greenhouse effect
  and so are irrelevant.
• A simple analogy...

21
(No Transcript)
22
(No Transcript)
23
(No Transcript)
24
The proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere is too
small to matter.

• Some have said that the amount of human produced
  CO2 is only a very small portion of the increase.
• That is total rubbish!
• Isotopic analysis of the C in the CO2 shows that
  it has come from fossil fuels which have a
  lower proportion of C14 because they have been
  decaying underground for millions of years.
• (C14 is a radioactive form of carbon created in
  the atmosphere by solar radiation.)

25
Water vapour is a more important greenhouse gas
than carbon dioxide.

• True!

26
The climate is always changing.

• Yes! On the large scale it swings between
  hothouse Earth and snowball Earth 10C
• On the historical scale the changes have been
  very minor Medieval warm period, Little ice age
  for example. 1C
• Past changes have caused mass extinctions
• We dont want to cause the next one!

27
Many scientists disagree with the IPCC
conclusions

• After assessing 687 individuals named as
  dissenting scientists in the January 2009
  version of the United States Senate Minority
  Report (James Inhofe) the Center for Inquirys
  Credibility Project found that
•  Slightly fewer than 10 could be identified as
  climate scientists.
•  Approximately 15 published in the recognizable
  refereed literature on subjects related to
  climate science.
•  Approximately 80 clearly had no refereed
  publication record on climate science at all. 
•  Approximately 4 appeared to favor the current
  IPCC-2007 consensus and should not have been on
  the list.

28
Many scientists disagree with the IPCC
conclusions
29
Many scientists disagree with the IPCC
conclusions

• Some of the scientists included in that report
• Ian Plimer
• David Evans
• Bill Kininmonth
• Bob Carter
• Lance Endersbee
• David Archibald
• Des Moore (IPE)
• Bob Foster
• Ray Evans
• Don Aitkin
• Robert Foster (Lavoisier Group)
• Garth Paltridge

30
Many scientists disagree with the IPCC
conclusions

• Many of these are
• Not climate scientists
• Geologists
• Retired
• Economists
• Social scientists
• Have interests in mining companies
• Associated or members of the IPA