CGE Work Relevant to Vulnerability and Adaptation

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CGE Work Relevant to Vulnerability and Adaptation

• Presented by Taka Hiraishi on behalf of CGE
• at the
• EGTT Seminar on the development and transfer of
  environmentally sound technologies for adaptation
  to Climate Change
• Tobago, Trinidad Tobago, 14-16 June, 2005

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Contents

• Vulnerability and Adaptation in Non-Annex I
  National Communications
• Consultative Group of Experts on Non-Annex I
  National Communications (CGE)
• Technology Needs Assessment viewed by CGE
• CGE Work Relevant to Vulnerability and
  Adaptation Maputo Hands-on Training Workshop

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Vulnerability and Adaptation in non-Annex I
National Communications (NAI NC Guidelines -
Dec. 17/CP8, Annex)

• Para 28 Non-Annex I Parties shall, in accordance
  with Article 12, para 1(b) and (c), of the
  Convention, provide to the COP information on the
  general steps taken or envisaged towards
  formulating, implementing, publishing and
  regularly updating national and, where
  appropriate, regional programmes containing
  measures to facilitate adequate adaptation to
  climate change, and any other information ...
• Para 29 In doing so, non-Annex I Parties should
  provide information on their vulnerability to the
  adverse effects of climate change, and on
  adaptation measures being undertaken to meet
  their specific needs and concerns arising from
  these adverse effects.

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NAI NC Guidelines - Dec. 17/CP8, Annex (contd)
Methods

• Para 30 Non-annex I Parties may use appropriate
  methodologies and guidelines they consider better
  able to reflect their national situation for
  assessing their vulnerability and adaptation to
  climate change, provided that these methodologies
  and guidelines are consistent, transparent and
  well documented.
• Paragraph 31 Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged
  to use, for the evaluation of adaptation
  strategies and measures, appropriate
  methodologies they consider better able to
  reflect their national situation, provided that
  these methodologies are consistent, transparent
  and well documented.

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NAI NC Guidelines - Dec. 17/CP8, Annex (contd)
More information.

• Para 32 Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to
  provide information on the scope of their
  vulnerability and adaptation assessment,
  including identification of vulnerable areas that
  are most critical
• Para 33 Non-Annex I Parties are encouraged to
  include a description of approaches,
  methodologies and tools used, including scenarios
  for the assessment of impacts of, and
  vulnerability and adaptation to climate change,
  as well as any uncertainties inherent in these
  methodologies Para 34 Non-Annex I Parties are
  encouraged to provide information on their
  vulnerability to the impacts of, and their
  adaptation to, climate change in key vulnerable
  areas. Information should include key findings,
  and direct and indirect effects arising from
  climate change, allowing for an integrated
  analysis of the countrys vulnerability to
  climate change Para 35 Non-Annex I Parties are
  encouraged to provide information on and, to the
  extent possible, evaluation of, strategies and
  measures for adapting to climate change, in key
  areas including those which are of the highest
  priority
• Para 36 Where relevant, Parties may report on
  the use of policy frameworks, such as national
  adaptation programmes, plans and policies for
  developing and implementing adaptation strategies
  and measures.

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The CGE Its Mandate

• Under decision 3/CP.8, the Consultative Group of
  Experts (CGE) is mandated to
• (a) examine National Communications (NC) with the
  view to improving the consistency of information
  provided relative to Vulnerability Adaptation
  (V A), Mitigation activities and GHG inventory
  
• (b) note the reporting of other information under
  the new guidelines 17/CP.8 such as transfer of
  technology
• (c) identify and assess technical problems and
  constraints
• (d) provide technical advice and support, by
  organizing and conducting workshops, including
  hands-on training workshops at the regional or
  sub-regional level and
• (e) Provide technical advice to the SBI. . .

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Members of the CGE

• The CGE comprises 24 experts as follows
• Five members from each of the regions of
  non-Annex I Parties, namely Africa, Asia and the
  Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean
• Six members from Parties included in Annex I to
  the Convention (Annex I) Parties, including one
  from countries with economies in transition
• One member from each of the three international
  organizations with relevant experience in
  providing technical assistance to non-Annex I
  Parties in the preparation of national
  communications.

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Thematic Groups of the CGE

• To facilitate its work, the CGE created four
  thematic groups
• (a) Vulnerability and Adaptation
• (b) Greenhouse Gas Inventory
• (c) Mitigation
• (d) Cross-Cutting Issues

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VA Thematic Group Members

• Ms. Madeleine Diouf, Senegal
• Mr. Carlos Fuller, Belize
• Mr. Mahendra Kumar, UNEP
• Ms. Marilia Manjate, Mozambique
• Mr. Alexander Pisarenko, Ukraine
• Mr. Arthur Rolle, Bahamas
• Mr. Othmar Schwank, Switzerland

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Technology Needs Assessment viewed by CGE

• During the Top-up phase many NA1 Parties
  conducted Technology Needs Assessment (TNA).
• Financial, institutional and policy needs were
  addressed for technology options proposed under
  TNA.
• Project proposals and /or ideas were identified
  under the TNA.

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Sectors Identified during the TNA Exercise

• The sectors that some Parties felt the need to
  evaluate technology were
• (a) water resources
• (b) forestry
• (c) agriculture
• (d) coastal zone
• (e) energy
• (f) transport, and
• (g) tourism.

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CGE Work Relevant to Vulnerability and
Adaptation Maputo Hands-on Training Workshop

• At the Hands-on Training Workshop (Maputo,
  Mozambique, 18-22 April 2005), the CGE provided
  training on vulnerability and assessments for the
  African Region to determine the vulnerability of
  the following sectors
• water, health, coastal zones and agriculture.

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Maputo Training Workshop (contd)

• 40 hours of training over a 5-day period was
  given to 55 participants.
• Fundamental information, modelling softwares and
  tools for VA were provided.
• Information was presented on the experience and
  know-how by representatives from Kenya, Burkina
  Faso, Lesotho, Egypt and the Seychelles.

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Training materials

• Such as . . .

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Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM)

• May only be feasible based on outputs from a few
  GCMs

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MAGICC/SCENGEN

• MAGICC is 1-D model of global T and SLR
• Based on IPCC TAR
• SCENGEN uses pattern scaling for 17 GCMs
• Yield
• Model by model changes
• Mean change
• Intermodel SD
• Interannual variability changes

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IPCC Data Distribution Center

• IPCC Data Distribution Centre appears to be the
  best site for climate model data
• Observed climate data 1901-1990
• Gridded to 0.5 x 0.5
• 10 and 30 year means
• GCM data from
• CCC (Canada)
• CSIRO (Australia)
• ECHAM4 (Germany)
• GFDL-R30 (U.S.)
• HadCM3 (UK)
• NIES (Japan)
• Can obtain actual (not scaled) GCM output

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Hydrologic Implications of CC for Water
Resources

• Precipitation amount
• Global average increase
• Marked regional differences
• Precipitation frequency and intensity
• Less frequent, more intense (Trenberth et al.,
  2002)
• Evaporation and transpiration
• Increase total evaporation
• Regional complexities due to plant/atmosphere
  interactions

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Hydrologic Implications of CC for Water
Resources (continued)

• Changes in runoff
• Despite global precipitation increases, areas of
  substantial runoff decreases
• Coastal zones
• Saltwater intrusion into coastal aquifers
• Severe storm-surge flooding
• Water quality
• Lower flows, could lead to higher contaminant
  concentrations
• Higher flows could lead to greater leaching and
  sediment transport

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Agriculture Practical Use of Models and Tools

• What components of the farming system are
  particularly vulnerable and may thus require
  special attention? crop models (e.g., DSSAT)
• Can the water/irrigation systems meet the stress
  of changes in water supply/demand? irrigation
  models (e.g., CROPWAT)
• Will climate significantly affect domestic
  agriculture? model integration GIS integration
  (e.g., deriving response functions)

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Health Methods

• Baseline climatology determined
• COSMIC was used to generate Zimbabwe-specific
  scenarios of climate change changes were added
  to baseline climatology
• Outputs from COSMIC were used as inputs for the
  MARA/ARMA (Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa) model
  of climate suitability for stable Plasmodium
  falciparum malaria transmission

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Health Other Models

• MIASMA
• Global malaria model
• CiMSiM and DENSim for dengue
• Weather and habitat-driven entomological
  simulation model that links with a simulation
  model of human population dynamics to project
  disease outbreaks

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Also at Maputo

• The draft terms of references for the development
  of training materials for vulnerability and
  adaptation assessments were discussed.

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Recommendations from the Maputo Workshop

• Based on the success of the Maputo workshop, to
  conduct a similar one in Latin America and the
  Caribbean.
• The Secretariat to seek financial support to
  enable a full complement of participants to
  attend.
• To develop and include into the VA training
  materials a matrix of the strengths and
  weaknesses of methodologies/ tools to assess VA,
  including suitability under different
  circumstances
• To widen the scope of the training materials to
  cover all major significant impacts of climate
  change,
• To ensure that the models used for the training
  are available in the public domain and can be
  easily demonstrated and
• To ensure that the VA training materials are
  updated as new climate change regional models are
  made available.