Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment within the Framework of the Second National Communications S

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Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment within
the Framework of the Second National
Communications (SNC) Context, scope, methodology,
reporting, good practices
Dr Graham Sem, Dr Xianfu Lu NCSP Workshop on
the Initiation of Preparing Second National
Communications for Pacific Island Countries 16
21 July 2007 Apia, Samoa
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Session Outline

• Why vulnerability and adaptation assessment?
  context
• What to be covered by VA studies? scope
• How VA assessments to be carried out?
  methodology
• How to present the results of VA studies?
  reporting
• Tips for success? lessons learned and good
  practices
• Looking ahead? Integration of VA
• Is VA assessment useful? Adaptation project

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1. Why VA assessment?
1.1 To meet the reporting commitment under the
UNFCCC
Source User manual of the UNFCCC new guidelines
for NAI NCs, http//unfccc.int/files/essential_bac
kground/application/pdf/userman_nc.pdf

• To report on
• Vulnerability to present climatic variability and
  to climate change
• Vulnerable human systems, sectors and
  geographical zones
• Difficulties or barriers to adaptation
• Opportunities and priorities regarding adaptation

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1. Why VA assessment?
1.2 But more importantly, to generate information
and knowledge in support of adaptation policy
decisions

• Even without projected future climate change,
  Pacific Island countries struggle to cope with
  already highly variable climate, costing almost
  USD2.8 billion over the last decade (World Bank
  2006)
• Climate variability and change will exacerbate
  pressure on sensitive environmental and human
  systems in PIC region

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1. Why VA assessment?
1.2 But more importantly, to generate information
and knowledge in support of adaptation policy
decisions (cont.)

• Even without projected future climate change,
  Africa struggles to cope with already highly
  variable climate (DFID, 2004)
• Africa is highly vulnerable to the various
  manifestations of projected climate change
  (Desanker et al., 2001)
• More robust understanding of vulnerability and
  adaptation to climate change is needed to enable
  effective adaptation policy decision

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1. Why VA assessment?

• Parties inability to conduct the type of
  vulnerability and adaptation assessments that
  would generate results reliable enough to be
  incorporated into national planning processes
  (UNFCCC, 2005)
• Impacts of climate change versus climate
  variability - e.g mean conditions Climate change
  scenarios e.g coarse resolution, high level
  uncertainty, CC as dominant driver of change
• Incompatibility with local capacities,
  capabilities and institutions
• Lack of and/or little participation by
  policymakers, structures/mechanisms for
  permanent, skilled and resourced teams

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1. Why VA assessment?
1.3 Results of VA assessment can be used to
leverage financial resources for implementing
adaptation measures
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1. Why VA assessment?
1.3 Results of VA assessment can be used to
leverage financial resources for implementing
adaptation measures (cont.)
Projects supported by adaptation funds must
demonstrate the relevance of climate risk.
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2. What to be covered by VA studies?
2.1 Major gaps of the VA assessments within INCs

• Mainly biophysical impacts and sensitivity
  analysis lack of discussion on socio-economic
  impacts and vulnerability
• Focusing on main climate conditions not much
  attention to climate variability and extremes
• Academic study-oriented little involvement of
  stakeholders

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2. What to be covered by VA studies?
2.2 Questions to be addressed

• What impacts/vulnerability have been
  observed/experienced? And what are the underlying
  drivers? (current vulnerability assessment)
• What are the impacts and vulnerability under
  projected climate and socio-economic conditions?
  (future vulnerability assessment)
• What are the adaptive responses to reduce
  vulnerability? (adaptation assessment)
• What are the implications for sustainable
  development? (policy recommendations)

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2. What to be covered by VA studies?
2.3 Specific subjects to be included

• An analysis of current trends in climate and
  other vulnerability drivers (population, land use
  change, etc.)
• The current vulnerability analysis
• Scenario development
• Climate change impacts and vulnerability
  assessment
• Development/recommendations of adaptation
  policies, strategies and measures

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3. How VA assessments to be conducted?
3.1 VA assessment frameworks

• The IPCC Approach and Derived Methodologies
• UNEP handbook on Methods for Climate Change
  Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies
  (1998),
• International Handbook on Vulnerability and
  Adaptation Assessments (1996).
• UNFCCC Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment
  Handbook
• The UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework
• NAPA Guidelines

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3. How VA assessments to be conducted?
3.1 VA assessment frameworks (cont.)
The IPCC 7-step approach (Carter et al., 1994)
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3. How VA assessments to be conducted?
3.1 VA assessment frameworks (cont.)
Users manual 9 Technical papers Case studies
UNDP APF (Lim et al., 2005)
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3. How VA assessments to be conducted?
3.1 VA assessment frameworks (cont.)
NAPA Guidelines
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3. How VA assessments to be conducted?
3.2 Selection of methodological framework

• Choice of methods/approaches to reflect national
  situation (data, expertise and funds available)
• Methods coherent, transparent and well
  documented (UFCCC, IPCC guidelines, UNEP
  handbook, APF, etc.)

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3. How VA assessments to be conducted?
3.3 Useful sources for selection of methodology

• The UNFCCC Compendium of Methods and Tools to
  evaluate impacts of, vulnerability and adaptation
  to, climate change

• Frameworks (IPCC, APF, NAPA, etc.)
• Development of scenarios (CC and socio-economic)
• Decision tools (MCA, BCA, DSSAT, etc.)
• Stakeholders Approaches (CBDAMPIC Approach,
  Livelihood, etc)
• Sector specific tools (mainly models)
  agriculture, water, coastal resources, health,
  terrestrial vegetation
• Others (PRECIS, DIVA, SimClim Systems)

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3. How VA assessments to be conducted?
3.3 Useful sources for selection of methodology
(cont.)

• Training material on vulnerability and adaptation
  analysis developed by the Consultative Group of
  Experts on National Communications from NAI
  Parties (CGE) available at http//unfccc.int/res
  ource/cd_roms/na1/v_and_a/index.htm

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3. How VA assessments to be conducted?
3.3 Useful sources for selection of methodology
(cont.)

• Climate Change Capacity Development (C3D)
  Platform
• Climate Change Capacity development
• Website www.c3d-unitar.org
• Training of trainers
• Development of training materials

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4. How to present the results of VA assessment?
4.1 Basic elements

• Sectors/zones identified and studied
• Methods and approaches used
• Spatial/geographical limits temporal horizons
• Description of exposure units and studied sectors
  (zones/sectors vulnerable)
• Possible monitoring of the assessment

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4. How to present the results of VA assessment?
4.2 Methodology

• Description of methodologies, approaches and
  tools used (IPCC guidelines, Adaptation Policy
  Framework, etc.)
• Scenarios
• Climate change
• Environmental
• Socio-economic
• Conditions of generation and use of tools (models
  or others)
• Limits and uncertainties of these methodologies,
  tools, etc.

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4. How to present the results of VA assessment?
4.3 Key findings

• For each sector/zone studied
• Effects (direct and indirect) of climate
  variability and change (impacts)
• Vulnerabilities
• Adaptations
• Integration of socio-economic and environmental
  scenarios
• Interrelations between the effects on the
  different sectors/zones

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4. How to present the results of VA assessment?
4.4 Adaptation strategies and measures

• For each sector/zone studied
• Specific adaptations to the effects of climate
  change (current and future)
• Assessment/prioritization of these options
• General politicies having implications for
  adaptation
• Needs for capacity strengthening
• Needs for awaraness raising, education and public
  information

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4. How to present the results of VA assessment?
4.4 Adaptation strategies and measures (cont.)

• General considerations
• Needs and priority concerns regarding adaptation
• Constraints to adaptation (technological,
  financial, human, etc.)
• Opportunities for adaptation
• Specific considerations (gaps and limits
  encountered)
• Lack of data
• Scenarios
• Analyze/understanding of CC effects
• Potential adaptation options
• Needs for capacity strengthening

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4. How to present the results of VA assessment?
4.5 Example of a summary table
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5. Tips for success?
5.1 Establish a VA Team and appoint a
Coordinator 5.2 Dedicate sufficient time to
consult your key stakeholders to identify the
policy questions that need to be addressed by
the VA studies
You will find this is time well spent!
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5. Tips for success?
5.1 Dedicate sufficient time to consult your key
stakeholders to identify the policy and technical
questions that need to be addressed by the VA
studies

• Examples of policy questions
• What are the key vulnerabilities (hotspots)
  within the country? (so as to determine where to
  focus on the adaptation efforts)
• Are they of highest priority?
• What are the key characteristics of a
  national/sectoral adaptation strategy?
• What are the adaptation actions that could be
  implemented to reduce vulnerability?

• Key stakeholders
• Policy makers
• Resource managers
• Local authorities and/or represntatives
• Communities/villages
• NGOs CBOs

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5. Tips for success?
5.2 Take time to review the alternative
methodological frameworks, methods and tools,
bearing in the mind the objectives of the VA
studies, and the requirements for data and
technical complexity of different frameworks
There are no one-size-fits-all methodology,
methods/tools!
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5. Tips for success?
5.3 Select a methodological framework, methods
and tools that best serve the purpose of the VA
studies, and take account of technical capacity,
data availability/quality, and time resource
permissible
If in doubt, please get in touch with the NCSP!
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5. Tips for success?
5.4 Make sure that the key stakeholders are
actively involved in the major steps of the VA
assessment
Ownership of stakeholders over the process is
key to maximizing the policy impacts
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5. Tips for success?
5.5 Undertake a thorough review of existing
information and data, to avoid duplication of
efforts and to ensure complementarity of the SNC
studies to existing initiatives
Making the most of limited resources!
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5. Tips for success?
5.6 Foster a culture of within- and inter- sub
working group communications and collaboration
Together, we are wiser!
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5. Tips for success?
5.7 Make sure the results are appropriately and
effectively presented
Accurate labelling and smart packaging are
essential to make a good product sell!
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6. Looking ahead?

• 6.1 VA Assessment should be a living document,
  i.e. prepared, used, improved/updated regularly
  as resources (human, technical and financial)
  permit

Regular and/or continuous V A work will improve
our understanding of impacts and enhance our
chances for adequate adaptation to climate change
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6. Looking ahead?

• 6.2 Integrate VA results into national and/or
  regional programmes, policies and strategies
• Pacific Islands Framework for Action on Climate
  Change 2006-2015
• Pacific Islands Framework for Disaster Management
  and Disaster Risk Reduction 2006-2015
• Pacific Islands Action Plan for Sustainable Water
  Management

Integration of CC issues will improve/enhance
our adaptive capacity
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7. Is VA assessment useful?

• 7.1 Decide on the critical vulnerable
  sector/human system that is of high priority for
  adaptation
• Information on technical/development baseline
  (without climate change impacts)
• What is current situation regarding the
  development (production, revenues,
  management/governance)?
• Adaptation baseline (with climate change impacts)
• What will be the situation under climate change
  (level of risk from climate change)?

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7. Is VA assessment useful?

• 7.2 Are there policy/regulatory frameworks that
  will enable adaptation to climate change?
• Sectoral/national
• Regional/international

A good adaptation project should be underpinned
by strong policy and regulatory framework
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7. Is VA assessment useful?

• 7.3 Institutional framework - is there a strong
  institutional framework for adaptation to climate
  change?
• Existing institutions government,
  non-government, civil society, universities,
  centers of excellence (national and regional)
• What are the implementation arrangements for
  other projects? What lessons can be learned?
• What are the roles and responsibilities?

A strong institutional framework with clear
roles and responsibilities will make adaptation
implementation easy!
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7. Is VA assessment useful?

• 7.4 Information and knowledge Is information
  available sufficient to warrant adaptation
  implementation?
• Existing national studies, assessments within the
  most vulnerable sectors
• IPCC reports, national and regional
  assessments/reports, UN organizations, World
  Bank, Bilateral Donor Agencies, etc.
• Consultations with key stakeholders
  communities, villages, government, NGOs, CBOs,
  sectoral experts, financiers, etc
• Others regional organisations and relevant
  documentation and data

Information and knowledge is power!
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7. Is VA assessment useful?

• 7.5 Stakeholder Involvement What is the level
  of stakeholder involvement and/or participation
  in the project design and implementation?
• Who are the key stakeholders? Identify and
  involve them
• Government, NGOs, CBOs, villages/communities,
  leaders/representatives, women, minority groups,
  marginal/vulnerable groups, etc.
• What are stakeholders roles and responsibilities?
• What are the rules of engagement?

No Stakeholders no adaptation projects
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7. Is VA assessment useful?

• 7.6 Co-financing support Is there sufficient
  co-financing available for adaptation? What is
  the current/existing cost of development
  baseline?
• National budgetary allocations for the vulnerable
  sector
• Donor-support to the vulnerable sector
• Depends on co-financing ratios being applied for
  adaptation project funded by the GEF

Co-financing ensures that adaptation is not a
stand-alone programme but is an integral part of
development