Selected Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Agriculture and Water Resources

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Selected Applications of Seasonal Climate
Forecasts in Agriculture and Water Resources
- The Australian Experience
Yahya Abawi Department of Primary Industries
and Fisheries Bureau of Meteorology/AusAID
project Vanuatu 5 July 2004

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Application of Climate Forecasts in Agricultural
Decisions

• Assessing the value of SCF in irrigated
  agriculture (The Australian Experience)
• Assessing the value of SCF in water allocation
  decisions (The Australian Experience)
• Application of climate forecasts in Water and
  Crop Management (The Indonesian Experience)
• Application of Climate Forecasts in Harvest Risk
  Management
• Constraints in using climate forecasts

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Approach
Climate Variability (ENSO)
Catchment Hydrology (IQQM)
Transpiration
Evaporation
Demand (OZCOT)
Runoff
stream flow
Drainage
Groundwater
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The Concept of Model Calibration
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The Concept of Model Calibration
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The Concept of Model Calibration
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Use of Climate Forecasts in Irrigation Decisions
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Approach
Climate Variability (ENSO)
Catchment Hydrology (IQQM)
Transpiration
Evaporation
Demand (OZCOT)
Runoff
stream flow
Drainage
Groundwater
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IQQM

• Integrated Quantity Quality Model
• is a planning model used to assess the impact of
  river management changes on streamflow, water
  quality and water users
• Hydrological model daily time step
• represent the major hydrologic and water
  management processes which occur in a river basin
• simulates streamflow, reservoir operation,
  irrigation demands and many other processes in a
  river basin

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IQQM Node Types
Stream gauging station
Tributary inflow
Irrigation
Fixed demand (town water supply)
Wetland
Transfer node
Confluence
Effluent / Loss
Floodplain
Effluent return
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Example
inflows
inflows
Reservoir
inflows
inflows
Basin boundary
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Example
dam
dam
Basin boundary
Gauging Station
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Example
dam inflows
dam
dam
Basin boundary
Gauging Station
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Example
dam inflows
dam
dam
Basin boundary
inflows
Gauging Station
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Example
dam inflows
dam
dam
Basin boundary
inflows
local inflows
Gauging Station
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Example
dam inflows
dam
dam
6000 ML/a
Basin boundary
inflows
local inflows
Gauging Station
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Example
dam inflows
dam
dam
6000 ML/a
Basin boundary
4000 ML/a
inflows
500 ML ofs
100 ha
local inflows
150 ML ofs
700 ML ofs
Gauging Station
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Observed vs Simulated Flow at Keling (E0.68
SR0.99)
     
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Typical Representation of a River System in IQQM
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Simulated Water Allocation at a Typical
Irrigation Node
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Sustainable Area and SOI
SOI Consistently Positive SOI Consistently
Negative All years
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Ice Cream and Pie Man at Rugby Grand Final
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Ice Cream and Pie Man at Rugby Grand Final
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Ice Cream and Pie Man at Rugby Grand Final
What is the value of perfect information?
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Economic Value of SCF in Irrigated Cotton
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Mean-Variance Analysis for different crop area
decisions
SOI
7 Ml/ha
Max Area
6 Ml/ha
5 Ml/ha
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Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts For Water
Allocation
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Inflow into Pindari Dam (Mar-Sep)
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Inflow into Pindari Dam (Oct-Feb)
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Median inflow (Giga Liters) by ENSO events
The net volume represents a crop area of 14000 ha
or 25 of the total irrigated area of 57000 ha
within the Border Rivers Catchment
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Water Availability as affected by ENSO
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Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts in water and
crop management The Indonesian Experience
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Study Case Batujai Irrigation Area
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Crop Type
Climate Variability
Soil Types
Pot. Yield
SPI
Est. Yield
SOI
IQQM Simulation
Water Balance
Water Demand
Crop Optimizer
Water Supply
Optimal Cropping Strategy
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Output of Crop Optimization for Batujai
Irrigation Area
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Risk Assessment at Harvest
Yahya Abawi Department of Primary Industries and
Fisheries
Industry Task Force June 2000
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Distribution of rainfall in the main wheat
growing regions of Australia
Average Rainfall Merriden 1914 - 1988
Average Rainfall Dalby 1871 - 1988
Average Rainfall Narrabri 1880 - 1988
Average Rainfall Wanbi 1958 - 1988
Average Rainfall Maryborough 1880 - 1988
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On average 10 of Australian Wheat is downgraded
due to weather damage, costing the industry
about 30 million Annualy
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Relationship Between Summer Rainfall And
Weather Damage Wheat at Receival
Data for Goondiwindi 1963-1988
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Receivals of Weather Damaged Wheat (Queensland
1995-1999)
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Weather Model Daily rainfall, Minimum maximum
temperature, Relative humidity
Inputs Crop data, Yield, Variety price, Grade
structure, Maturity date, Area, Harvest moisture
content Machinery data Harvesting capacity,
Drying capacity, Wet storage capacity.
Outputs Annual costs, Annual production, Grain
losses, Crop return, Harvest duration, Production
by grade
Harvest Management Model
System Parameters Machine performance data,
Machinery costs, Crop loss characteristics,
Depreciation, Interest rate, Operating costs,
Labour, Fuel costs
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The effect of grain moisture content on costs of
harvesting
Harvest costs
Drying costs
Shedding losses
Quality losses
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The effect of harvest moisture content on return
for various cropping areas
800 ha
600 ha
250 ha
100 ha
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Receivals of Weather Damaged Wheat (Queensland
1995-1999)
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Constraints to Use of Climate Forecasts
Technical barriers to forecast use
include Accessibility official forecasts vs
other agencies Credibility lack of evaluation
impede their use Understandability official
forecasts are misinterpreted partly because of
their probabilistic nature Relevance Seasonal
rainfall vs flood forecasting Timing Different
decisions require different lead time
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Constraints to Use of Climate Forecasts
Technical barriers to forecast use
include Accessibility official forecasts vs
other agencies Credibility lack of evaluation
impede their use Understandability official
forecasts are misinterpreted partly because of
their probabilistic nature Relevance Seasonal
rainfall vs flood forecasting Timing Different
decisions require different lead time