Title: Ensembles Probabilistic Long Lead Flood Forecasts For Community Level Applications
1The Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early
Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES)
- Ensembles Probabilistic Long Lead Flood Forecasts
For Community Level Applications
- S.H.M. Fakhruddin
- Team Leader- Hydrology
- fakhruddin_at_rimes.int
- www.shmfakhruddin.com
Measuring Real Impact Monday 25th June 2012
UK CDS, Wellcome Trust, 215 Euston Road, London
NW1 2BE
Free Powerpoint Templates
2Discussion Topics
- About RIMES Key Activities
- End to End EWS
- Case Study on Flood forecasting and Agriculture
Risk Management
3RIMES Member States
4Purpose and objectives
- Purpose Provide early warning services for
enhanced preparedness, response, and mitigation
of natural hazards, according to differing needs
and demands of its Member States - Objectives
- Facilitate establishment and maintenance of core
regional observation and monitoring networks and
ensure data availability for early warning - Provide regional tsunami watch within the
framework of UNESCO Intergovernmental
Oceanographic Commission (IOC) - Support National Meteorological and Hydrological
services for providing localized
hydro-meteorological risk information within the
framework of the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO) - Enhance warning response capacities at all levels
(national to community) within each national
early warning framework
5Governance
- Council
- Heads of NMHSs/ national scientific and technical
agencies generating multi-hazard early warning
information, empowered to make policy decisions,
on behalf of governments, concerning regional
early warning arrangements for enhanced
preparedness for, response to, and mitigation of
natural hazards - Chair Government of India
- Secretariat
- Carries out the decisions and tasks assigned by
the Council, and provides support to the Program
Unit in managing the regional early warning
center - Government of Maldives (Presidential Task Force
led by the H.E. Vice President of Maldives)
serves as Administrative Secretariat Government
of Mongolia (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) as
Program Secretariat
- Program Unit
- Responsible for the day-to-day operation and
management of the regional early warning center
and the implementation of programs and activities - Co-located with the RIMES regional early warning
Center
6Organizational Chart
7Key services
- Tsunami Watch Provision to National Tsunami
Warning Centers
- Seismic and sea level monitoring and data
exchange - Provision of earthquake alerts and regional
tsunami bulletins - Tsunami hazard and risk assessment tools for
local coastal inundation forecasting
- Support to National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services
- Customization of climate and weather forecasting
models for generation of more reliable,
location-specific severe weather and short- and
medium-term weather forecasts, and seasonal
climate outlook, having longer lead times - Downscaling of global climate models for
generating high-resolution climate change
information for national and local level planning - Development of decision-support tools
- Translation of products of research into
operational forecast products and testing these
for local level application
8Key services continued
- Capacity Building on End-to-End Early Warning
- Early warning system audits
- Assistance in establishing and maintaining
observation and monitoring stations of regional
benefit - Training of scientists (in-country and RIMES
secondment program) - Development of decision-support tools
- Strengthening national early warning provider and
user interface - Application of tailored risk information at
different time scales in decision-making - Enhancing community responses to early warning
9EW System
10EW System Structure
Detection Subsystem
Monitoring, detection, data Assessment, data
analysis, prediction
Management Subsystem
Risk Assessment, interpretation, communication
Response Subsystem
Interpretation, confirmation and response
11Reasons for Warning Failure
12Gaps
- Regulatory framework for warning
- Stakeholders involvement and roles
Observation/ monitoring
- Aging and insufficient observation and data
communication facilities
Data analysis
- Data sharing among agencies
- Numerical prediction capability
- Skilled human resource
- Capacity to make use of new generation forecasts
Prediction
Risk assessment
Potential impact assessment
- Local level potential impact assessment not done
- Language
- Localized, relevant
Warning formulation
Preparation of response options
- Institutional mechanism, linkages
- SOPs
- Redundant communication systems
- Reach to special groups
Dissemination to at-risk communities
- Public awareness
- Communication of forecast limitations
- Lack of trainers/ facilitators
- Resources to respond to warning
Emergency response plans Public education/
awareness Mitigation programs
Community response
13A Case Study- Bangladesh
14Probabilistic Flood Forecasting and Applications
in Agriculture
- Research Project initiated since 2000 and
completed in 2007 - GoB requested RIMES to continue to support
- RIMES provides 10 days lead time flood
forecast to GoB and build capacity
15Institutional Collaboration For Sustainable
End-to-end Flood Forecasts System
Climate (rainfall and di
scharge)
forecasting technology
RIMES- CFAN
BMD
Flood forecast
RIMES
RIMES
FFWC
Discharge translation
Agro met translation
Interpretation
RIMES, Local Partners
DMB, DAE
Communication
RIMES, Local Partners
End users
16Flood risk management at community level
decisions and forecast lead time requirement
Target groups Decisions Forecast lead time requirement
Farmers Early harvesting of B.Aman, delayed planting of T.Aman 10 days
Crop systems selection, area of T. Aman and subsequent crops Seasonal
Selling cattle, goats and poultry (extreme) Seasonal
Household Storage of dry food, safe drinking water, food grains, fire wood 10 days
Collecting vegetables, banana 1 week
With draw money from micro-financing institutions 1 week
Fisherman Protecting fishing nets 1 week
Harvesting fresh water fish from small ponds 10 days
DMCs Planning evacuation routs and boats 20 25 days
Arrangements for women and children 20 25 days
Distribution of water purification tablets 1 week
Char households Storage of dry food, drinking water, deciding on temporary accommodation 1 week
17Discharge Forecast Schemes
(I). Initial Data Input
(II). Statistical Rendering
(III). Hydrological Modeling
(IV). Generation of Probabilistic Q
(V). Forecast Product
- Hydrological Model
- Lumped
- Distributed
- Multi-Model Discharge Forecasting
- Accounting for uncertainties
- Final error correction
- Generation of discharge forecast PDF
- Critical level probability forecast
Discharge data
Hydrologic model parameters
NOAA and NASA (i.e.CMORPH and GPCP) satellite
precipitation GTS rain gauge data
ECMWF Operational ensemble forecast
Downscaling of forecasts Statistical correction
182007 Flood- Brahmaputra Ensemble Forecasts and
Danger Level Probabilities
7-10 day Ensemble Forecasts
7-10 day Danger Levels
7 day
8 day
7 day
8 day
9 day
10 day
9 day
10 day
192012- Brahmaputra Ensemble Forecasts
20Plumes and probability pies for the first
Brahmaputra flood July 28-August 6, 2007
Model able to meet three fundamental information
needs of communities at risk
21Distribution of H combined with DEM --gt
probabilities of flood classes
DEM
Distribution of H values
22Vulnerability Flood Risk Assessment
- Development of flood risk map which will include
- low probability
- medium probability
- high probability
23Flood Risk Map
24Decision Support System
High flood J F M A M J J A S O N D
T.Aman 1 1 3
T.Aus 2 2 2 3
Jute 3
S.Vegetables 4 4 4
Cattle 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
- Community Outcomes
- Delayed seedling raising, gapfilling, skipping
early fertilizer application - Advance harvest of paddy ( 70-80 mature)
- Early harvest of jute for rotten in water
- Pot culture (homestead), Use resistant variety
- Food storage, flood shelter, vaccination
de-warming
25Decision Support System (DSS)
High flood J F M A M J J A S O N D
T.Aman 1 1 3
T.Aus 2 2 2 3
Jute 3
S.Vegetables 4 4 4
Cattle 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
- Recommendations
- Delayed seedling raising, gapfilling, skipping
early fertilizer application - Advance harvest
- Early harvest
- Pot culture (homestead), Use resistant variety
- Food storage, flood shelter, vaccination
de-warming
26USER MATRIX on Disasters, Impacts and Management
Plan for Crop, Livestock and Fisheries
27Decision Tree
28Risk Communication of flood forecasts
29Risk Communication for Flood Forecasts
Mobile phone
Flag hoisting
29
30Community responses to flood forecasts
31Economic- Benefits
- In 2008 Flood, Economic Benefits on average per
household at pilot areas - Livestock's TK. 33,000 (485) per household
- HH assets TK. 18,500 ( 270) per
household - Agriculture TK 12,500 (180) per household
- Fisheries TK. 8,800 ( 120) per households
- Experiment showed that every USD 1 invested, a
return of USD 40.85 in benefits over a ten-year
period may be realized (WB).
32Expansion of Areas
33Thank you
- S.H.M. Fakhruddin
- Team Leader- Hydrology
- fakhruddin_at_rimes.int
- www.shmfakhruddin.com